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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #829

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Great advice Tsunami. With Asian markets mixed...who knows how the next day shakes out. I still think we have more momentum to the downside than the upside. I'm out till I see a clearer path. Not worth risking 3-4% loss to gain 2%. In any case, I don't see the S&P climbing above 2040 in the current environment....with all that said...I hope you make a killing tomorrow.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  3. #830

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    X marks the spot: The Art Of Chart | A collaboration between Richard Chappell aka Springheel Jack of www.channelsandpatterns.com (shjackcharts on twitter) and Stan Nabozny forecasting moves in price and time on equity indices, bonds, precious metals, commodities other Looks like the 1967 area is key on whether the rally continues to the 2030-40 area, or dies here. In the pre-market I see that 1968 is the high so far. Sure would be nice if it could but up through that decision area before the IFT deadline, but instead I have to just guess.

    Looks like gold/silver are starting a final 10% kerplunk down into a great buying area for metals and miners as well.

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  5. #831

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    The last couple of days have been some of the clearest Elliott waves I've ever seen and Tuesday should be ugly if I'm right that we just finished a wave 1 down and 2 up from Thursday's high. I've got a target of 97.05 for QQQ at the next (wave 3) low, then a wave 4 rally then a final panic low later next week at the bottom of wave 5.

    For the S&P 500, from yesterday's peak of 1975.01 to today's low of 1911.21 was 63.80 points. The wave 2 peak late today was 1931.45, not even a typical 38% rally, rather weak and an indicator of what's likely next, a panicky wave 3 down. The wave 3 down target becomes 1931.45 - (1.618*63.8) = 1828.22 (but if things get overdone could extend lower). Wave 5 of 5 should be only a bit lower so that 1820 target zone is looking real good for the low next week...or by Fed day the 17th at the latest. I wish I had another IFT to get back at that point since the relief rally (relief that the Fed will finally do something, maybe a whopping 1/8th point hike to match the real world rates) will be huge from there, probably over 10% to 2015 or so, but I'll be taking advantage of it in my other accounts.

    Good luck everyone.

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  7. #832

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    No guarantees of course but I envision the S&P 500 working its way down similar to 2008 in one or two more panic drops to the lower envelope on this chart (e.g., 1820ish next week, then the mid- to upper-1700's in late Sept or Oct), then rallying big-time to the 50-week average, then plunging again into next year to who knows how low...

    $SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

    The 50-week average just turned negative this week. The last time there was a negative slope on the 50-week average for more than a couple weeks (i.e., 2011) and there wasn't a subsequent long-term bear market was in 1994.

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  9. #833

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Looks like the index's are busting upward's from their triangles like this one for the S&P:
    Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
    Very bullish for the next week or so with that 2030-40 range now probable. Good deal for those who are in! Also that should give the Fed a green light for the rate hike they so desperately seem to want...which may then trigger wave C down to new lows afterwards. We'll see.

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  11. #834

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    S&P making another lunge at breaking 1960, if it can't breach that going to be a while before we see 2030-40
    I like TSPTalk and I think most people here are well-intentioned but if I followed their advice, I'd be hunkered down in my basement with a thousand cans of tuna fish.

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  13. #835

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    When I created my name “Tsunami” almost six years ago it wasa reference to me seeing one more big wave sweeping over the market before I reached retirement age in 2016. I think that tidal wave might be hitting now, and a bit sooner than I had thought. David Tepper warned clearly about it on CNBC this morning. He warned that the mighty river of money is reversing course and the dam is breaking.

    Looking at the futures market, I see the surge overnight early Wednesday morning peaked at about 1993, just above the rally peak of a week earlier, so that might have been it for the expected 3-wave rally from the panic low in late August. See the 5-Hour chart here: http://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures If so, that was a pretty pathetic rally to not even reach 2000, and now comes wave C down, which is normally worse than the first drop.

    I’m kinda glad I’m out of IFTs at this point since I can’t screw things up and try to catch the falling knife. I hear talk of Shemitah on 9/13 and all the warnings that come with it. I don’t know about that, but I do know that the waves are aligned for a mighty tsunami if now is the time for the debt bomb to finally explode. I don’t really see any fundamental reason for a major crash, so hopefully it’s just the garden variety 20% or so drop, down to around 1575 then that’s it….but it could get worse if the Prechter’s and McHugh’s and Faber's of the world finally get their way.

    One good thing about this is that once it’s over I can finally change my name. Maybe “Silver Tsunami” in reference to the retiring wave of baby boomers that many of us here are part of. That’s too long though, so maybe just “Boomer”. Hmm, nope, that’s taken by someone that’s been parked in the G fund all year.

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  15. #836

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Today looked like a typical wave 2... if the bears win out tomorrow will bring a wave 3 down and a break below 1900 by Monday... the VIX is certainly coiled up and ready for it.
    This looks like a perfect 5-leg triangle just completed...
    Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

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  17. #837

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I'd love to get the bottom out of the way so we can go long again for about 4-6 months. Thanks for your analysis.

    Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.


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  19. #838

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    I'd love to get the bottom out of the way so we can go long again for about 4-6 months. Thanks for your analysis.
    Me too, except in my case I plan to go long for about 40 years or however long I have left. No more trading, forever, other than the seasonal strategy that I like and plan to use with about a third of my retirement portfolio. Another third will be a collection of 20 dividend stocks that pay over 4% on average, and the last third will be a diversified collection of ETFs similar to the portfolios that Paul Merriman recommends. Over time, if one of these three strategies is clearly winning out (and my expectation is that the seasonal strategy will win) I'll switch over everything to that method.

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  21. #839

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Sounds like a great plan. Best of luck to you. BTW...I like Tsunami. Hope you don't change ge it.

    FS

    Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  23. #840

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Tsunami, thanks for sharing your well-considered thoughts. I wish you well for those 40+ yrs.
    Current Allocation = 95%G, 5% F, Feb 4, 2016

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