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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1297

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Well the SPX finally broke out of the triangle, to the downside, and is now testing the underside. If it falls away to the downside tomorrow then Ed Carlson could be on to something with his latest 3 peaks/domed house pattern:
    September 30- October 3 High | Ed Carlson | Safehaven.com

    Per his 9/13/16 post here: George Lindsay, Seattle Technical Advisors Blog it looks like what would be next would be a fall to the 200dma in mid to late October, a rally, then another bigger fall into late November...which matches another guru I follow that uses cycles.

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  3. #1298

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    An interesting read, very few money managers beat the index's and here's the stats to prove it. Hat's off to the premium services here that do!

    https://us.spindices.com/documents/s..._download=true

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  5. #1299

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Maybe the jobs report will be the iceberg....

    https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/...warning-signs/

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  7. #1300

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Yep, it looks like the jobs report provided the iceberg. The jump to 5.0% has also triggered rule #1 of the "perfect recession indicator".
    In Search of the Perfect Recession Indicator | PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS

    5.0% is above the 12-month moving average, which is now 4.93%, for the first time since April of 2010! So by rule, you defer to the current S&P 500 price compared to it's 10-month moving average, which is 2075.62 by my chart (using month-end prices). So this indicator is now teetering on indicating an impending recession, and a drop below 2075 would trigger me to go to bear market rules, which is to just stay in the G of F funds until the charting method I use (which is similar to what DBA posted this morning with that Joanne Klein chart) indicates a bear market bottom. Using this method would have side-stepped a 38% drop in the 2000-03 bear market, and a 45% drop in the 2007-09 bear market.

    Time to pay attention! I don't expect a drop below 2075 real soon (2100ish next week though), but maybe it happens next month per some guru's I read.

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  9. #1301

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    So, it's not smart to follow gurus...
    https://pensionpartners.com/followin...ot-a-strategy/
    ...but some gurus are pretty darn smart, and Northy continues to point out worrying signs...
    https://northmantrader.com/2016/09/1...real-part-iii/

    Meanwhile, the brilliant economists at the Fed have "discovered" something "new" that other economists like Harry Dent have been writing about for decades. Demograhpics are an anchor on the economy. This is hilarious that they make it sound like a new revelation. I've been talking about it for five years or so in my thread here....
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...economic-mess/

    The red cycle is past it's peak, and now the two cycles are aligned and pointing down to mid-November...
    Orderly Bull - Jaroslaw Jac - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

    Lastly, it's only the 2nd quarter, but WSU 14...Stanford 3... Go Cougs!
    Last edited by Tsunami; 10-08-2016 at 11:36 PM.

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  11. #1302

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    China's real estate bubble just needs a pin. Wow, a 65 ft2 apartment for $132K?
    Housing is so scarce in China's Silicon Valley that even illegal "pigeon cage" apartments are going fast

    If this correlation holds, it could suggest more weakness in the short-term, but a really nice gain for 2017 followed by a major peak in the spring of 2018:
    DJIA, And the Echo of 2007-08 Oil Blowoff - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

    This chart for the average returns in the 8th year of Presidential cycles hasn't worked out in 2016. If it does in the short-term however, it also supports further downside to about November 20th, then that oil-echo bubble can get going...
    Presidential cycle stock market performance - Business Insider

    I'm looking for a panic in the next few weeks that sets the centerpost of a new T. The NYMO dropping below -100 would project a huge rally lasting 3 or 4 months (the same distance as the left side of the T, which can be calculated once we get a centerpost low)...
    $NYUD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

    Cougs still undefeated in conference play and tied with the Huskies!...Seahawks beating Atlanta...nice!

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  13. #1303

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    "Get ready for a big new bull market after October 2016."
    El Niño, La Niña, & The Stock Market - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

    Alrighty then, I'm ready and waiting.

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  15. #1304

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Still waiting for the wave 2 bottom. Perhaps it has to wait all the way to the election, or at least until the polls clearly show that the status quo will be maintained and the coast is clear to buy buy buy. No worries, once the ship rights itself there's a powerful T that will carry the market higher all the way to next May (sell in May and go away, once again)...

    First chart: Jeffrey Young's Public Chart List - Jeffrey Young - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

    A drop below 2075 would change the picture for me, but until then I'm bullish.

    And more importantly, wow, Cougs come roaring back from a 21-0 deficit and beat the Beavs! 5-0, and still on an Apple Cup collision course with the Huskies. Now I need the Seahawk to give me another weekend sweep.

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  17. #1305

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Some updates on my personal trading system....

    First, with today's drop in the unemployment rate back down to 4.9%, my bear market indicator is turned back off since the 4.9% rate is now back below the 12-month moving average (currently at 4.93%). So a further drop in the S&P price no longer matters, and it's full-steam ahead for my system and I think that once the lemmings are done selling over the next week or so the markets will do well into year-end barring a significant deterioration in fundamentals.

    I've also now reached a milestone in my ongoing project to figure out whether or not to roll over to an IRA when I retire. The results came out as I expected (the TSP's ultra-low fees can't be beat and make a difference over time). My first look was a simulated TD Ameritrade account where I'd use ETF's that mimic the TSP funds, using ETFs from TD Ameritrade's commission-free list as much as possible (I plan to also evaluate the same system using Vanguard and Charles Schwab IRAs). The funds I used were AGG, IVV, VXF, and EFA until 2007 when Vanguard's VEA came into existence, then VEA since then. It was very tedious, taking me months of work in my free time, making sure I included subtracting trading fees when the ETFs are held less than 30 days per TD Amertrade's rules, including SEC fees on all trades (they become significant as the account grows), and making sure every dividend was properly added. My daily data goes back to 12/31/03, and monthly data back to January 1984, so in just two more months I will have a full 30 years of data to work with.

    Below is a summary of the results. The answer to the big question is that, in my opinion, it's a big mistake for anyone to roll over there TSP to an IRA upon retirement unless you absolutely can't live with the TSP's restrictive withdrawal options, or, if you are really brave and can sleep at night by shorting the stock market during bear markets. My "bull/bear" system has been great at timing the last two bear markets (will it work for the next one?, I have no idea), and the ridiculous results below for the bull/bear system using ETFs incorporates shorting the market in late 2007 through most of 2008 using the inverse S&P 500 ETF "SH". The results are astounding, but even so I don't plan to abandon the TSP when I retire. I think staying in the TSP is so much simpler, especially if I'm hit by the Creamland ice cream truck and my wife as to take over trading the TSP account...it will be a simple thing for her since with my system I'll have all the future IFTs worked out for the next 40 years or so, just a dozen or so IFT's per year, and one should be able to reap double-digit returns on average if history repeats (granted, that's a big if, but with 13 years and counting I'm convinced it works and I can easily achieve my personal goal of 8%/year during retirement).

    The following compound annual returns are for the period 1/1/2004 through 12/31/2015:
    Buy and hold the C fund: 7.44% ---- Buy and hold an equivalent ETF (IVV): 7.40% (I'll look at VOO next, but expect similar results)
    Buy and hold the S fund: 9.03% ---- Buy and hold an equivalent ETF (VXF): 8.74%
    Basic seasonal strategy using G/F/C/S/I: 14.93% ---- Equivalent strategy using ETFs (no G fund ETF exists though, so only AGG): 14.29%
    Enhanced seasonal strategy: 21.82% (and has beaten the S&P 500 13 straight years) ---- Equivalent strategy using ETFs: 20.82%
    Bull/Bear seasonal strategy: 22.43% ---- Equivalent strategy using ETFs, including SH during the last bear market: 27.88% (wow )

    Lastly, the year-to-date returns for 2016 through October 31st....
    TSP Basic: +16.22% ---- ETF Basic: +17.81%
    TSP Enhanced (and Bull/Bear): 13.61% ---- ETF Enhanced (and Bull/Bear): +15.08%

    My challenge has been to follow my own system, but I finally have been doing that (almost, my IFTs have varied from what the system said to do by one day for each move, and it's cost me each and every time, argh) since July...and my actual return for 2016 is 3% better than what the auto tracker shows, which is still awful, but has done fine since July. As Cubs fans said for 108 years, wait until next year! I'll finally be following my system in the tracker as long as I remember to enter the IFTs.

    Market is turning green...so many indicators are at very oversold levels...nice divergences abound...I don't pay much attention to such things any more but I sure wouldn't be a seller here. Getting beyond the election should eliminate the last roadblock.

    On a personal note, I landed a new job yesterday that I've had my eye on for over a decade, nabbing the job of someone retiring...so I'll likely be hanging on until 2019 to boost my high-3 and pad the TSP and other savings.


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  19. #1306

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Wow Tsunami. Your system sounds awesome. Best wishes to you. Please do let us know your results in looking at other funds for retirement. It would be very appreciated. I can retire next year but will likely work another five.

    So you would stay in now and so it seems you are exoecting an upturn soon. That is good to know! I wa thinking to buy back in sometime next week.
    Current as of 2/8/18: G-100% /. Previous as of 1/16/18: S-100%

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  21. #1307

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Hey tsunami
    I decided to put it into the hands of my financial adviser just about a month ago since I had done all I knew to do. I posted in the retirement thread and also on my Guchi account the details and my reason for doing so. I wish you the best with your system, I on the other hand was not as suave as you so decided to leave it to someone who is. Time will tell for me on my decision.

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  23. #1308

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Tsunami,
    Wouldn't a major factor of TSP vs. IRA be the two IFTs per month restriction in the TSP? How can you follow your system to buy or sell if you've already used up your two IFTs? BTW all your various systems beat me by a mile.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Some updates on my personal trading system....

    I've also now reached a milestone in my ongoing project to figure out whether or not to roll over to an IRA when I retire. The results came out as I expected (the TSP's ultra-low fees can't be beat and make a difference over time). My first look was a simulated TD Ameritrade account where I'd use ETF's that mimic the TSP funds, using ETFs from TD Ameritrade's commission-free list as much as possible (I plan to also evaluate the same system using Vanguard and Charles Schwab IRAs). .

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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
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