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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1213

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Just entered my IFT....I'll go 50% C, 25% S, and 25% I (looks like S & I have more of a bounce possible to fill gaps, and I want to spread my bets). I'm just hoping to catch a bounce next week that creates a right shoulder per Northy's chart below. I doubt the bounce will go as high as the guy predicts in the 2nd link below, but maybe I can grab just enough to pass the F fund herd. More likely though, I'll go 0 for 3 on my attempts to catch bounces this year.

    https://northmantrader.files.wordpre...4/04/spx77.png

    Weekly Forecast: Week of May 2nd, 2016

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  3. #1214

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Bet of luck next week TS. I'm looking for it to ride to 2185...Then it's back to G or F for a while..

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  5. #1215

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Happy Mother's Day to all the moms out there.

    Not an easy decision for tomorrow. A rally to the 2080 area would look like the right shoulder of an H&S pattern, and tomorrow is also the last day of a lunar green phase, and the Elliott waves say this could be short-lived wave 2 rally before a bigger decline...so all of that argues for me to get right back out after (hopefully) a one-day small gain Monday. But seasonality says the market should rally to Tuesday the 17th, as does the LT wave chart for May which predicts a high on 5/17. Hmm.

    Almanac Trader

    https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/...-wave-for-may/

    ...and then there's this: "something happened on Friday that has happened only twice in over 20 years on the $SPX: The weekly 100MA has crossed over the weekly 50MA. Only by 1 handle mind you, but it has happened. The last two times this happened carnage followed"
    https://northmantrader.com/2016/05/07/the-golden-key/

    ...and lastly, the seasonal system I've developed (which is at +12.93% YTD as of Friday 5/6) says to go to the G fund tomorrow and stay there until June 24th. Hmm, unless there's a strong move up tomorrow, I'm leaning toward following my system for once and going to G...and hoping for a 0.5% gain Monday....S&P should fill that gap at 2080.
    Last edited by Tsunami; 05-08-2016 at 05:33 PM.


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  7. #1216

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    So we now have two very nice H&S patterns ready to trigger a big move, a big move up, or a bigger move down. Which pattern will win? I vote for the red one...
    Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

    And if this cycle repeats, and the next big decline has just started 92 days after the last big decline started, which was 92 days after the previous big decline started last August...well, look out below for the next week or so...
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...39.59%20PM.png

    If there's a big gap one way or the other tomorrow I think that will be the answer. Maybe the building uncertainty and fear over the coming Brexit vote will drive the market down all the way until 6/23? An interesting coincidence (?) that my system has me in the G fund until the next move, which is to the I fund on 6/24. Hmm. Maybe it will be a close vote but the Brits vote to stay in the Euro, and the markets soar starting 6/24? We'll see. Meanwhile I'm locked and loaded for bear.
    Tidido OMG that's loud, I could only stand the first five seconds.

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  9. #1217

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    This summarizes the Brexit situation pretty well. It's big deal and I think the markets fear of uncertainty will drive markets down until the vote.
    "Brexit" Could Take a Wrecking Ball to Your Portfolio

    OK, this is not the political thread, but this would be a hoot, and I'm just pointing out that the political uncertainty isn't helping markets either:
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ice-president/

    Futures are slipping on oil....Dillard's joined Macy's today as the latest retailer to be destroyed by the Amazon steamroller...Apple breaking down...
    https://northmantrader.files.wordpre.../04/aapl15.png

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  11. #1218

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    The Bollinger Band’s haven’t been this narrow (width of 3.046) on the NYSE advance-decline line since at least 2003. The last time they were close to being this narrow was last August, just before that scary nosedive.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=t74421392954&r= 1463437473405&cmd=print
    I want to thank Tom4Jean for the post he made on FogSailing’s account last week, with the link that led to this link about using the UE rate to time recessions and when to exit stocks:
    http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/02/uetrend/
    After a lot of number crunching over the weekend I decided to incorporate it into the “Bull/Bear” version of my still evolving TSP timing strategies. So instead of using a monthly S&P chart to time exits, I now use the UE rate and trailing 12-month moving average and the trailing month-end S&P 10-month moving average. Using that, and retaining the chart method for getting back into stocks…now I find that I shouldn’t be in a bearish stance at all, but should be (cautiously) still following my regular “enhanced” strategy since last July when my chart method said to go bearish, and as of the close today that strategy is up 12.92% this year, and sports a stupidly ridiculous cumulative average return from 2004-15 of +21.28%, and it's worse year ever was +5.25% in 2005...yep, not a single negative year. For the upcoming jobs report on June 3rd, it would take a surge in the unemployment rate to 5.4% to trigger the exit signal, and that won’t happen. So it looks like I’ll be following my “enhanced” system until at least July. I almost hesitate to talk about it anymore since it’s so unbelievable, but the current long-term returns of various strategies now looks like this (chart below), and I think I’m finally close to putting the finishing touches on the spreadsheet and starting on the pdf document that will describe it all in detail….
    Hmm, I tried to delete the 2nd image below since I haven't updated the equivalent ETF strategies column with my latest changes...those returns will be close to the TSP returns but not above it. One additional thing I did just for fun was I looked an ETF version where during the 2008 bear market period that the UE method said to be out of stocks, I instead pretended to invest the entire account in an inverse ETF...I chose SDS as an example, and it was up, gulp, 107% during that period in 2008.
    TSP Timing returns.JPG
    Attached Images Attached Images

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  13. #1219

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    tsunami, that is amazing work you got going there. kudoes! You may just help me achieve my retirement goals for post-retirement life. Please do post the rest when you are ready.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  15. #1220

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Nice work TS and quite interesting....Are you planning to jump back in this month?

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  17. #1221

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Nice work TS and quite interesting....Are you planning to jump back in this month?

    FS
    Nope, I can't (used my two IFTs already and got out one day too soon to get that big gain last week) plus my system says to just stay in G for now. Maybe it's sniffing out something I'm not seeing fundamentally, but there are still plenty of TA warnings and I don't think you and DBA made a mistake bailing out today. This thing for example looks ominous:
    https://northmantrader.files.wordpre...04/bpspx54.png

    ...or perhaps this butterfly has wings:
    http://www.61point8.com/Portals/0/ar...160516SPY1.png

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  19. #1222

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Tsunami, it looks like our numbers don't agree. I also looked at Tom4Jeans post and did an analysis here:http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/longer-ter...tml#post540803

    What values did you get for April. I show an unemployment rate of 5% and a 12 month MA of 5.09% so it won't take us much next month to push us over. Here is the graph from my spreadsheet:

    unemp.png
    Allocations as of COB Jan 29 : 100% C. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%, 2013 17.29%,5Yr Avg 5.58%

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  21. #1223

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    The indicator is very cool. My thanks to Tom4Jeans for posting. I'm adding this one to my arsenal.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  23. #1224

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    This combined with Clester's 50% approach could work very well. Hmmmmmmm....
    40% C, 40% S, 20% I COB 12 Jan; was 100% G COB 6 Jan; 100% S COB 29 Nov; was 100% G COB 24 Nov; was 30% C, 50% S, 20% I COB 26 Oct


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