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Thread: tsptalk's Market Outlook

  1. #2917

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Outlook

    Bonds putting in a negative outside reversal day...


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  3. #2918

    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Bethesda, MD
    Posts
    1,685

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Outlook

    Definitely not looking good for the F-Fund longterm. However, there may be a chance for a very short reprieve. PSAR uptrend dot formed outside the lower BB (circled in green on chart), majority of times that leads to a short-term PSAR uptrend. DISCLAIMER: I could easily be confused in reading the tea leaves; and as of COB yesterday I could be the F-Fund bag holder if I'm wrong
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  5. #2919

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Outlook

    Carter Worth on CNBC agrees and sees a move in the 10-year treasury yield down to about 2.15% before the bear market in bonds resumes.



    I'm not sure I agree yet, but I can be persuaded ... so thanks for your analysis, fedgolfer!

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  7. #2920

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Outlook

    The dollar gapped up and broke its descending trading channel this morning, and is testing the 50-day EMA.


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  9. #2921

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Outlook

    After breaking out yesterday, but finding resistance the 50-day EMA, the dollar has pulled back to test the old resistance for support.


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  11. #2922

    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Bethesda, MD
    Posts
    1,685

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Outlook

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    After breaking out yesterday, but finding resistance the 50-day EMA, the dollar has pulled back to test the old resistance for support.
    FWIW, I agree with you in the short term. Without showing too many charts, price has fallen (S-Fund and $tran) out of the Fibonacci Fan's line of support for the trend beginning around the election. I think indices bounce up briefly but then back down, perhaps fast. From the F-Fund point of view, we are putting in well defined cup & handle, I think price retraces and tests support before resuming an uptrend. I'd be back in stocks for a day or two if I had more than one IFT (saving that for a buy-signal in the indices later in the month). Of course, this is just more reading of the tea leaves

    Happy trading, all.
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  13. #2923

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Outlook

    So far the S&P has been able to get and hold above the resistance line of the flag / wedge.




    The small caps are testing that resistance now.


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  15. #2924

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Outlook

    It's interesting to see the VIX up almost 5% with the Dow up 100+. I figured it would be pushing down toward 10 this morning. I wonder what's up? Besides the VIX.


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  17. #2925

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Petersburg, Alaska
    Posts
    331

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Outlook

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    It's interesting to see the VIX up almost 5% with the Dow up 100+. I figured it would be pushing down toward 10 this morning. I wonder what's up? Besides the VIX
    Any interpretation ? what is happening...news seems mild?...


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  19. #2926

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Outlook

    Id say it means someone is betting on some volatility and buying some protection. It's certainly not a big negative at this level, but the fact that stocks are up made it interesting.

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  21. #2927

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Outlook

    A gap down in the dollar pushes it near 2017 lows...




    And of course the I-fund likes it, up 0.72% early today.


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  23. #2928

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Outlook

    Once again I'm in the wrong fund.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 21 : 100% S. | Retirement Date: Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%, 2013 17.29%, 2012 2.75%,5Yr Avg 3.57%

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