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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6637

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market had a gap and go day Tuesday. The S&P 500 blew right past its 50 dma.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Strength and momentum both rose. Breadth is looking very bullish. The options are neutral again.

    Things are starting get interesting to the upside. Everything is turning up. I have no reason based on the indicators to expect any serious downside; at least in the short term. We do have a line of resistance getting closer on the S&P 500, which needs to be watched. It could be tested as soon as Wednesday. My guess is that if it gets tested, resistance probably won't hold. Not with breadth as strong as it is.

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  3. #6638

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As expected, the market rallied a bit more on Wednesday. Interestingly, the highs of the day did not hold and a good portion of intraday gains were erased. At the same time, price is now entering into an area of resistance where it's possible we see a lower high followed by a reversal; though not necessarily an immediate one.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The bullish perspective still shows breadth very bullish and it did hit new all-time highs today. But, it has had a bit of a run, so we could be due a pullback for this reason as well as the hitting overhead resistance.

    The OEX is neutral to modestly bullish for Thursday. The CBOE is bearish. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

    I am looking for a pullback very soon, but the downside could still be limited if we get it. Overhead resistance may hold initially, but price may test it more than once and certainly we may see resistance break on further upside. I am neutral at this point.

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  5. #6639

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said that the major averages were starting to press into an area of resistance and that breadth was hitting fresh all-time highs. That meant we could expect some selling soon, which we got. Interestingly, volume rose a bit. The 200 dma was tested for support today and held.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The options are neutral heading into Friday. NAAIM got more bullish and the bears among them are not betting on the downside. That tells me that the chance of any serious decline is unlikely for the time being. Breadth did turn down as did momentum.

    I don't have any strong feelings about Friday. I tend to think the market may chop around, but next week I suspect we may see an attempt to take the market higher once more.

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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
Source: https://finance.google.com/finance