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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6577

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Today's selling pressure was probably more of a carry over from Wednesday's drop, but talk of levying tariffs may have also contributed to the action.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Breadth is still negative, but not falling off a cliff as in the previous decline more than 2 weeks ago. The options are leaning neutral to bullish.

    NAAIM had a spike in bullishness. This has been bullish for a long time, but historically could produce weakness over a 1-3 day period. Maybe today's drop satisfies that norm. There are no shorts now. We'll see.

    There was a moderate reversal today that managed to close the averages off their lows. I note that small caps held up much better than most of the other averages. That would seem to be at least a bit bullish.

    Overall, the action is corrective, given the size of the rally off the bottom. But selling is not generally raising bearish levels, and while that hasn't been a problem for a long time, this market isn't the same market after February.

    Having said that, the fact NAAIM got long leads me to believe this selling won't last much longer.

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  3. #6578

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM got bullish on Thursday, and after some weakness early on Friday, the market gradually turned around and rallied into close. I said that since NAAIM turned off their shorts, the bottom may not be far off. I'm not ready to declare a bottom, but we just might have one.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The OEX got bullish for Monday, while the CBOE is neutral. TSP Talk came in neutral, which means we aren't as bullish as we've been (for months). We aren't all beared up either, which would have helped the bullish case even more.

    This technical signals are a mixed bag overall. My intermediate term system is negative, but a day or 2 of upside could flip it back to positive. Breadth turned back up, but not enough to go positive; though it's not far from it. Small caps are outperforming, which is bullish in a recovering economy (I just wish it would be more consistent).

    Next week will be interesting. I am not sure what to expect, but if the smart money is bullish then we should be too. I remain long TNA, SPXL and the C, S, and I funds.

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  5. #6579

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The smart money was bullish heading into the new week and once the early weakness dissipated, the market powered higher to give us a nice gain to start the week.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The 50 dma's have not been retaken, though price is sitting just under that key area of resistance.

    The options are neutral to bullish heading into Tuesday. Breadth turned back up and is positive again, though it hasn't hit a higher high yet. My intermediate term system is one signal from flipping positive.

    Overall, I think there's more upside, but we are at or approaching some key resistance in the 50 dma. We may have to endure another shot to the downside before the week is over, though I am not pounding the table for it. Let's see if price can hurdle past resistance first. If it can do that, we could be heading for new highs.


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  7. #6580

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The DWCPF closed well past its 50 dma on Tuesday, which is bullish. The S&P 500, while higher, did not test its 50 dma; though it was not far from doing so.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    As I watched the futures in the early after hours trading, they gave back a small portion of gains, which was not unusual. Then, not long after that they dropped much harder. It appeared to be a news related drop, so I checked the news and sure enough I found why the market was reacting negatively. Gary Cohn resigned as Trump's economic advisor. I am not surprised by the market's reaction, but that's about all I can say about it without getting into political details.

    So we'll see whether futures recover by the morning or not. I'm thinking we may have another hard reversal in store given the financial battle that's been playing out in the background.

    The options are looking bearish this evening as both the CBOE and OEX are leaning in that direction. Breadth remains positive.

    I'm looking lower tomorrow. Maybe much lower given that Cohn was a Wall Street favorite. The options being bearish doesn't help either. Let's hope the early after hours reaction dissipates by morning.

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  9. #6581

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Overnight weakness before Wednesday's open had me watching carefully to see what impact Cohn's departure would really have on the market. Weakness came early, but eventually faded. In fact, small caps rallied rather hard.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    While the S&P 500 is still trading under its 50 dma, the same cannot be said for the DWCPF, which is the beneficiary of a small cap resurgence. This is very interesting and suggests that this market may be stronger than many think. Small caps generally do well in recovering economies and ours is no exception. So, while the S&P 500 appears dicey, the DWCPF is hitting higher highs. I don't think that should be discounted.

    The options are generally neutral for Thursday. Breadth remains positive. NAAIM reports tomorrow. My intermediate term system remains negative, but not by a lot.

    I have to say that the small cap rally definitely has me leaning bullish right now.

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  11. #6582

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The S&P 500 came back on Thursday, while the DWCPF took a break. No harm, no foul. It's normal market action.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P 500 is now testing its 50 dma. Since the DWCPF is bullish, I am not expecting this test to fail, though we could see a pullback that will not last long. I say this because NAAIM is still bullish, but some of those money managers put on shorts again. They have tended to be right of late, but these short positions tend to be short-lived (no pun intended). The fact is, the market does remain a bull and is much more likely to see new highs than head back down to test the February lows. We just have to allow for a pullback along the way.

    The options are neutral. Breadth is positive.

    Overall, I remain bullish and am perfectly willing to ride any weakness in order to make sure I do not miss out on a rally that may catch many off guard. I believe the small cap space is telling us something.

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  13. #6583

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I've been leaning bullish for a few days now given the bullish small cap rally and NAAIM sentiment. Of course breadth has been favorable too. Friday's rally continued to validate my expectations even as I was allowing for some measure of a pullback before hitting new highs.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P 500 gapped past its 50 dma on Friday and closed the day more than 1.7% higher. The DWCPF wasn't far behind with a more than a 1.4% gain. The I fund was the laggard with a 0.78% gain.

    Momentum is rising. Breadth is looking very bullish. With the 50 dma now taken out, the picture gets more bullish.

    NAAIM is bullish overall. TSP Talk bulled again too. The options are neutral to my eye for Monday, but in the context of the rally they may be bullish as that's how the OEX is leaning.

    I remain long and continue to believe new highs are coming.

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  15. #6584

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH,

    Cautiously agree!
    Allocations as of COB 30 April 2018: G:30%, C:70%, S:0%, I:0%
    Past Returns: 2017: +12.83%, 2016: +11%, 2015: -.12%, 2014: +6.88%, 2013: +22.39%, 5 Year Average: +10.596%

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  17. #6585

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    No charts this evening. They didn't change much. A lot has turned up since Friday. Monday's action was mixed as the market took a breather from last week's upside action.

    The options are neutral for Tuesday. Breadth remains positive. Momentum is pointing up. My intermediate term system remains stubbornly negative, but only because one signal refuses to flip. That's okay. We remain in a bull market and right now the path of least resistance is up.

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  19. #6586

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market started out strong on Tuesday, but was not able to hold on to its gains on yet another significant news day (Tillerson).

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The chart I am really watching right now is the DWCPF. It's looking strong as it makes higher highs on the peaks and is not too far from its all-time high now. The S&P 500 is struggling a bit, but looks okay. The small cap rally suggests the underlying strength of this market is just fine. Today's pullback was due given the extent of the latest up leg.

    For Wednesday, the options are leaning bearish. Breadth has turned down, but remains solidly bullish. I am looking for some additional downside that will probably come Wednesday, but this market could bottom quickly and reverse. With price convincingly above the 50 dma, the bulls are charge. Weakness is likely a bull flag in the making.

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  21. #6587

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As expected, we got some downside follow through on Wednesday. I was hoping for a turn today, but we obviously did not get it. That means tomorrow is that much more likely to see a bottom.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P 500 closed just above its 50 dma, and that may yet get broken, but the DWCPF remains well above that key line of support. For that reason, I am not overly concerned about the S&P 500. When small caps are leading the market, that's usually a bullish sign.

    The options are neutral for Thursday. Breadth remains bullish, but has turned down. Momentum is falling as well.

    My outlook remains the same. I am looking for new highs; at least on the DWCPF, which could see them once a bottom is established with the current selling pressure.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow.

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  23. #6588

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    At the beginning of this week, I thought we'd end the week higher than we began, though not without some degree of downside pressure along to the way. Friday is now here and the TSP stock funds are all down, so if we are to have a positive week Friday will have to see some significant buying pressure.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF pulled back some more on Thursday, but the chart still looks bullish. The S&P 500 is playing with support at its 50 dma.

    NAAIM came in more bullish. Last week, this group saw some shorting that I said would likely result in some degree of downside from the market and it did. Now, those shorts have been taken off, so downside pressure is more likely to be limited from here and in fact I would expect some upside pressure over the days ahead given how they are positioned.

    The options are neutral. Breadth is still falling, but remains in a bullish configuration.

    So, I am looking for a turn back up over the days ahead.


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SPY (C Fund)
coolhand's Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund)
coolhand's Account Talk
AGG (F Fund)
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