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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6373

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    My intermediate term system has been deteriorating of late, but remains in a bullish configuration. That deterioration did appear to indicate that the market may generate some selling pressure, which we got on Thursday, but the market come back shows us that there are still those who want this market elevated. This morning, the futures are solidly positive, so a continuation bounce off the Thursday low appears likely.

    S&P 500.png

    The S&P 500 managed to close positive in spite of the downside pressure. Momentum is and has been weakening, though only marginally.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF continues to lag the S&P 500, though no serious price damage to this point.

    Breadth remains bullish. NAAIM got more defensive and the reading is now a low as it's been since April. It's a neutral reading. They are certainly getting more defensive, but they are not shorting this market. So they see the deterioration and are taking measured steps to protect capital, but also recognize that this thing can turn back up in a hurry. The options are on the neutral side.

    Friday looks to start out bullish. The bulls are still in control.

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  3. #6374

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I've been saying that it is probably not wise to fight this market and last week's action lent credence to my suspicions. The C and S funds both posted weekly gains, while the I fund back up a bit. It has appeared that the powers that be want this market elevated. Driving that perception is the current tax cut narrative, which if successful, could see this market launch much higher than current levels. But if that narrative falls apart, things could go the other way. It is my expectation that there will be at least some degree of success in transforming the current tax structure and tax cuts will be perceived as a solid foundation to corporate profitability, while driving (improving) the job market along with it.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    That gap higher on Friday sure does look bullish. There is no overhead resistance and we are approaching the more seasonally positive 6 month cycle.

    NAAIM is neutral with no short bears. The options are neutral for Monday. TSP Talk is neutral. Overall, sentiment looks supportive for the bulls. Breadth remains bullish along with liquidity. I am leaning bullish for next week.

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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)