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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6121

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    SPX.jpg

    The S&P got back above that longer-term support line to start the new week. Horizontal support at the March low held. A test of the rising 50 dma is likely next.

    DWCPF.jpg

    The DWCPF was in better shape than the S&P 500 as it never tested its March low, but both charts have been putting in low highs over the past 6 weeks or so. But now the DWCPF appears to have put in a higher low as it erased all of Thursday's losses and a bit of Wednesday's. There's plenty of resistance above with that falling trend line and the 50 dma to contend with, so price will have to clear that as well as hit a higher high. If it can to that, traders may shift to a more bullish stance. NAAIM shifted bullish late last week and I said I don't like to fade them. Monday's rally supports my observation.

    BKX.jpg

    The Bank Index bounced with authority on Monday, sending price higher and closing above that horizontal area of resistance. RSI was kissing that oversold line, but has now turned back up.

    I'm all in again, though I was hoping to buy at a lower level, but I was already 50% stocks (C and S) before I made the move. I think this bounce should have legs for the next few days or so. TRIN did close at a low level today, so there is a chance we give some gains back on Tuesday, but on balance I think we bias higher. The options market has not settled yet, so I don't know how they are positioned for Tuesday. I'll check again later this evening.

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  3. #6122

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The options shows the smart money leaning a bit bullish, while the dumb money is neutral.

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  5. #6123

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I mentioned that I had a low TRIN reading, which led me to believe that some of Monday's gains might be given back on Tuesday. We did give back some on the S&P 500 and EFA, while the DWCPF was mostly flat.

    SPX.jpg

    Not much has changed with Tuesday's action. The S&P 500 shows price still fighting to get back above the 50 dma. After Monday's rally, it's not unexpected to see somewhat of a pullback, so maybe price makes another run at a test of the 50 dma on Wednesday.

    However, looking at the indicators a lot of stuff looks neutral to my eye for Wednesday, including the options market. It's possible this market is not ready for a sustained move to the upside with indicators like this. More chop is likely in store for now.
    Last edited by coolhand; 04-18-2017 at 06:55 PM.

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  7. #6124

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Wednesday's session started out on the positive side, but that optimism peaked just before noon and the major averages then chopped their way lower through the rest of the trading session. Energy and utilities were the biggest losers as the market closed mixed on the day.

    DWCPF.jpg

    The DWCPF temporarily broke both its declining line of resistance and the 50 dma, but could not close above either of those two key levels. It was still a gain, however, which was more than the S&P 500 could muster (or the EFA for that matter).

    SPX.jpg

    The S&P 500 came close to testing its 50 dma Wednesday, but fell just short as early gains eventually gave way to a somewhat modest closing loss. Volume has been been higher the past two down days than the volume recorded on Monday's rally. That's not bullish, but the small caps are outperforming for the time being and that's bullish at face value, so I'll take the S&P 500's weakness with a grain of salt for now.

    BKX.jpg

    Banks remain in trouble as the Bank Index continues to fight to stay above key support in the 88 to 89 area.

    The options smart money is leaning a bit bearish for Thursday, while the dumb money is neutral. NAAIM reports in the morning.

    It's been quite difficult to lock in gains for several weeks now as this market see-saw's back and forth. Breadth is still positive, but flat the past couple of trading days as is liquidity. I was looking for chop on Wednesday and I'd say we got it, though over a pretty good trading range. Thursday looks neutral to modesty bearish to my eye. Still holding 30% C and 70% S.

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  9. #6125

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thanks much for your postings on your Forum; I too am so glad to see you back here frequently as I'm sorry I wasn't signed up for your Primo - I only opted for one that was cheaper.

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  11. #6126

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As you know, I was neutral to modestly bearish for Thursday as saw no technical set-up for any sizeable moves. However, the latest reports from Washington indicate that the Freedom Caucus, (they blocked the GOP's first attempt at health care reform) is now on the same page with Republican leadership in repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act. That's not insignificant news. If they can lock down health care reform, then that will significantly increase the odds for progress on tax reform. Also, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the White House will release a major tax reform plan "very soon." That is at odds with previous statements, which indicated a longer-term timeline, but politics is very fluid.

    In any event, while I was not looking higher for Thursday I am certainly not going to complain about the gains since I am 100% stocks in TSP right now. I expected more upside, but at least some of it has come sooner than expected.

    SPX.jpg

    Price on the S&P 500 pushed past its 50 dma intra-day, but was not able to close above it. It did manage to close right at that key level, however. We has to look at the DWCPF to get a better idea of whether resistance on the S&P 500 will hold or not.

    DWCPF.jpg

    Price on the DWCPF shot well above both its 50 dma and declining resistance and closed well above those levels as well. Horizontal resistance is currently being tested, but I feel pretty confident that this rally is not over. Volume was higher overall and that helps support that expectation.

    BKX.jpg

    The Bank Index also made a big move to the upside, though it has much more work to do to recapture a bullish tone.

    On the sentiment front, NAAIM backed off their bullishness, but not overly so. They are still bullish overall.

    It's too early to get a read on the Options, but today's action suggests that there are more gains coming, but how much more I do not know. I think the domestic political news will generate more mileage yet.

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  13. #6127

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thanks CH, you are a nightly read for me! I appreciate you sharing my friend! 🖒

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  15. #6128

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Futures are much higher this Sunday evening on the French voting results. If the market opens up big tomorrow and it appears it will hold beyond the first hour of trade, I'll be reducing my stock exposure in the C and S funds.

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  17. #6129

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    What do you think of a move to 100% I fund today?


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  19. #6130

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Robo5555 View Post
    What do you think of a move to 100% I fund today?
    The I fund has been performing very well, so exposure to the I fund is fine.

    I have decided not to make any moves today. The rally isn't quite as robust as I'd hope, though I'm not complaining. I just think there's more rally left over the days ahead.

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  21. #6131

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thanks for your quick response coolhand. We might also have a nuclear test in NK tomorrow....
    Last edited by Robo5555; 04-24-2017 at 10:09 AM. Reason: added comment

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  23. #6132

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Robo5555 View Post
    What do you think of a move to 100% I fund today?

    Obviously it is your decision to make a move into the "I" fund today. But with the fund up over 2% for right now, it's not a move I would make. Hopefully a few more might have opinions.
    May the force be with us.

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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
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