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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #673

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Using 2nd IFT to move back into equities. 50% C and 50% S COB today.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 7/14/17)

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  3. #674

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Tom mentioned in his evening discussion the last time we had Consumer Confidence this high (Dec 2000), we were just off our peak and on the downside.
    http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tspt...w-through.html



    Even though the time scales are a bit off...we are mimicking that chart pattern with the recent CC report.

    SP.png
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 7/14/17)

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  5. #675

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Selling on short 3 day "semi-flat rally". Using 1st IFT to go 50% G and 50% F.

    These last few days are looking like "bear-flagish" on the S&P (below) as well as the Dow Transports.

    SP.png

    Dow Transports from Tom's Evening Commentary...(he does better charts than I do)

    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 04-20-2017 at 11:14 AM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 7/14/17)


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  7. #676

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    8,027

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    I'm OK with the "C & S" funds going a little bearish as long as the "I" fund stays on the bullish side.
    May the force be with us.

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  9. #677

    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Oklahoma City
    Posts
    121

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Selling on short 3 day "semi-flat rally". Using 1st IFT to go 50% G and 50% F.

    These last few days are looking like "bear-flagish" on the S&P (below) as well as the Dow Transports.

    SP.png

    Dow Transports from Tom's Evening Commentary...(he does better charts than I do)

    My thoughts are that we broke out of the 2353 channel to the upside, the vix is falling and there is talk back on about tax reform. If we get any confirmation on the tax reform I think we will have a blow off top. Time will tell.

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  11. #678

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Reversed course...with markets digesting tax plan and not free-falling on it...and WH agreeing to keep ACA subsidies in place makes Gov't shutdown/showdown less likely.

    Decided to go with some International exposure, as many analysts on CNBC have been hitting Europe for better growth...so went 50/50 I and S.

    Want to be invested going into early part of next week, THEN will re-evaluate.

    Quote Originally Posted by rspring View Post
    My thoughts are that we broke out of the 2353 channel to the upside, the vix is falling and there is talk back on about tax reform. If we get any confirmation on the tax reform I think we will have a blow off top. Time will tell.
    You might be right...decided to take your word on it.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 7/14/17)

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  13. #679

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Lat few days making me feel good about putting half my $$ in the I-fund.

    If I weren't holding out for another chance to drop out of market and buy back in, I would shift the other half into the I-fund as well.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 7/14/17)

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  15. #680

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    I exited from 50/50 S and I...into 100% G COB today.
    Up just under 1% for the month so far, so as long as we don't crater in the afternoon, should still be able to hold onto 2/3rds of that.

    Super low (23 yr low) VIX yet we've been struggling to match market highs of 8 weeks ago on the S&P....and looking like we're starting to roll over, as doubts about the "Trump Trade" from the smart money seems to be slowly building, while sentiment with the rest of the crowd "the dumb money" is as bullish as its been in awhile.

    vix.jpg

    SP.jpg


    Everything has run up the past 5-6 months on the promise of better economic conditions, mainly via tax cuts (which first require HC repeal). Looks like neither happens this year.
    Great video chart analysis on CNBC showed how the charts show the "Trump Trade" to essentially be over now (link to video below).
    I feel that a much better buy in price will be available in 2 weeks.

    There was nothing there: Analyst
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 05-11-2017 at 11:44 AM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 7/14/17)

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  17. #681

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Whew...glad I locked in Monthly profits last week.

    Dow.png

    Reasons are likely a "Black Swan" geopolitical event. Impeachment odds, while not certain...have gone up significantly in the past 24 hrs.
    An analogue event...the Nixon Watergate Investigation...led to a yearlong bear market decline from previous highs...S&P dropping 50% in a year.


    SP Watergate.png

    Interesting article:

    Here's what the stock market did during Watergate — and why

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres...133736317.html
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 7/14/17)

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  19. #682

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    My system is calling for me to get in...actually was doing it yesterday...so I may be a day late, but going all in...I-Fund COB today.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 7/14/17)

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  21. #683

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    A predictor with a perfect track record on the American economy is moving closer to signaling a recession

    Interest rate spreads close to signaling recession - Business Insider
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 7/14/17)

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  23. #684

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Using 1st monthly IFT to exit from I to G...COB today.
    Low VIX, exiting temporarily...hope to get back in before end of next week, depending on what the market serves up.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 7/14/17)


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