Show-me Account Talk

[Show-me]

Remember Buffet also bought GE at $22 and it sits at $14 right now. His saving grace is the 10% guaranteed divey.

[Show-me]

He is brilliant but a long term player with deep pockets to buy a entire class A railroad.

[Show-me]

I see the USD pierced the 50 dma and that makes me think it will be heading down again. Read a great piece int he WSJ about the dollar and market correlation. Dollar down, market up.

[mayday]

Originally Posted by Show-me

He is brilliant but a long term player with deep pockets to buy a entire class A railroad.

Kind of like playing monopoly.

[mayday]

Originally Posted by Show-me

I see the USD pierced the 50 dma and that makes me think it will be heading down again. Read a great piece int he WSJ about the dollar and market correlation. Dollar down, market up.

I saw that the fed has the say on where this market is going to go tomorrow. Dollar up or down.

[CountryBoy]

Originally Posted by Birchtree

I now wish I hadn't sold my CSX - it will benefit from collateral gains. The whole industry will benefit and that will help me in different companies I own.

I wish I'd kept my BNI.

[Show-me]

Read another article in the WSJ about how much cash companies have on hand. The opportunity for more mega mergers is very high. Cash heavy companies are cherry picking the best companies.

[Show-me]

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14924.htm

The real source of America's angst is a sense that something is terribly wrong. What that something is isn't tangible - like higher gas prices - but it is palpable. Maybe it is the lack of leadership in Washington or the inability of that leadership to do anything but put our problems off for another day.

There is no collective purpose to the actions coming out of Washington. There is no common cause that Americans can rally around. Bailouts and government programs, like "cash for clunkers", have perpetuated the same old thing. The bailouts have favored the connected or those who where irresponsible in the first place. Is this the American way?
This is not the change that Americans wanted. They voted for it, but this is not the change that Americans wanted.
So what kind of change did Americans want?

See the video in the article.

[Show-me]

I am struggling with my decision not to get in. The risk is very high at this point in the game. Looking at the charts the Tran, S fund, Dollar, and Nikki have not broke the 50 sma. The C fund and I fund have, but have not confirmed. The FTSE is above the 50 sma but is stuck there. Oil is way above the 50 sma and the dollar looks like it will fall.

The whole point is that risk to go long is very high.

Jobs numbers in less then 20 minutes.

[Show-me]

The sad truth is that this recent market rally has been produced on the back of a weakening dollar and the slashing of corporate overhead. Cutting payrolls and research and product development projects are not a prescription for sustainable growth. As I like to say, you can't burn your furniture to keep your house warm forever. Eventually, top-line revenue growth must emerge or Wall Street's game of beat-the-expectations will be short lived.

It's also worth noting that a country cannot devalue itself to prosperity and that a bull market cannot survive an inflationary environment for long. In the short run, nominal gains in the averages can occur since everything priced in dollars tends to increase in value. However, the rally will be truncated unless the Fed provides consumers and corporations with a stable currency.

The ramifications of a crumbling currency are vastly misunderstood. A strong dollar is the cornerstone of a healthy economy. It is essential for balanced growth and healthy investment to occur. On the other hand a weak currency decimates the middle class and the corporate sector's ability to maintain earnings growth. Inflation lies behind all infirm currencies, and it is inflation that destroys the purchasing power of consumers. The diminished value of their wallets leaves them with the ability to buy only non-discretionary items. As a direct result, unemployment rates soar and economic output plunges.

I believe we will suffer from a protracted period of stagflation. Money supply, as measured by M2, has increased 5% Y.O.Y. Meanwhile the output of goods and services is falling. As long as the money supply is chasing a shrinking GDP pie, there will be upward pressure on prices.

Making the situation even worse is the manner in which the money supply is growing. The quality of growth is very low because the increase in supply is coming from commercial bank purchases of Treasury debt, rather from an issuance of credit to the private sector for capital goods creation. Total Loans and Leases at Commercial banks are down 8.2% from last year. Meanwhile, the amount of Treasuries held at all commercial banks is up 20% year-on-year.

That means money supply growth is emanating from government's misallocation and redirection of capital. It isn't being loaned out to build mines and factories; it is instead being loaned out to increase consumption and build even more consumer debt.

If the Treasury and Federal Reserve truly believed the economy and the stock market were on a sustainable recovery path, talk of extending and increasing the home buyer's tax credit would be off the table. The Fed would already be reducing the size of the monetary base. The truth, however, is that no one in government really believes in this recovery. If they did, they would be hiking interest rates and the deficit would be shrinking.

The government's realization of our precarious economic condition means its largess will continue. Near term, that may ease some pain. So did the artificial stimulus that gave rise to the housing boom. In the end, a protracted period of a near-zero interest rates, along with endless economic stimulus, will spawn another bubble and not a genuine recovery.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14932.htm

[Show-me]

10.2% unemployment is the headline. I don't give two shits about the decline in lost jobs. We are not creating jobs and will not for some time to come. Job gains came from education, health care, and professional. Overtime hours went up and like I said businesses will work people to death in overtime before they hire back employee's.

Jobless recovery will not be a recovery for long. The recover is artificial and will crash again. Taxpayer funded recovery is nothing more than a new redistribution of wealth. This mornings headline was AIG posts 2nd consecutive quarterly profit- AP . So what they owe the taxpayers BILLIONS. How is that a profit? It is all bullshit spin.

[Gumby]

Originally Posted by Show-me

So what they owe the taxpayers BILLIONS. How is that a profit? It is all bullshit spin.

You hit the nail right on the head. It will be interesting to see how the spinmasters handle the double digit unemplyment rate.