XL-entLady's Account Talk

[XL-entLady]

.... Isn’t it likely that the sentiment will further retreat? .... Buffet also says never bet against America, but when offering a time range says that things will not be better in 5 months but will be better in 5 years. Dennis believes in DCA to offset the possible missing of a dramatic increase, but a 20% dramatic increase after another 25% drop is still a loss. ...

Excellent points and questions, all, Warrenlm.

I took my first marketing class at the age of 19, and the Law of Supply and Demand is a rock on which I have built much of my adult life. I believe it applies whether the medium of exchange is time, recognition, or financial gain. Supply and demand are strongly influenced by expectations, and decisions are based just as much on emotion and behavioral bias as they are on factual information.

I know from my recent studies of technical analysis that volitility indexes usually peak at market bottoms. Ned Davis Research, Inc. found that between 1970 and 2005, when the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index was predominately pessimistic the stock market rose on average 27.3% per annum.

One thing in that article below that arrested my attention was the statement that bearish sentiment, as measured by the Conference Board, has hit an alltime high. That means, obviously, that emotions of stress, uncertainty, fear and nervousness are at an alltime high. The Law of Supply and Demand dictates that there should be a swing.

I don't know if we've hit the bottom yet or not. My crystal ball is in the shop for repairs. All I know is that we'd better perk up and pay attention because we're either close to the bottom, or we've hit the perfect storm and the "D" word will be coming into play.

But that's just my opinion. And my opinion and a dollar still won't buy anything at Starbucks!
Lady

[XL-entLady]

On another thread someone mentioned thinking that an old lady should just shut up and color. It reminded me of something and I hope you don’t mind if I share it.

From my early teens until I graduated from high school I worked as a kitchen helper at a senior care center (but in those days it was called a nursing home) in the town where I was raised and where my parents still live. I did it to save money for college, but I learned a lot while I was there. It was easy to make friends with the patients, because little things meant so much to them.

Mrs. Belliston was always delighted when I would bring her a fresh pot of hot water for her green tea after my shift ended. But she would never let me bring her a new teabag when I asked. Most of the time she would follow her reply of “no, thank you dear” by saying “you know, child, I lived through the depression and I’ve learned how to use it up, wear it out, make it do or do without!”

I learned songs like “When You wish Upon a Star” and “In the Cool of the Evening” because Mr. Simon, who had alzheimers, was much less restless while I fed him if I sang songs he still recognized.

And every Sunday morning when I brought Mrs. Johnston her breakfast tray, I helped her put on her necklace and earring set while she explained to me that she needed to look her best in case her boy, Charles, came to visit her that week. Most weeks he didn’t. On the rare occasions when he did, he would talk at her rather than to her for a few minutes and then gather up his young family and walk back out with a smile on his face because he had done his Christian duty that week.

A few months ago my mom told me that Charles Johnston had passed away after a long stay at that same care center where I used to work. I wonder if his children treated him the way they were taught on those visits to their grandmother…..

Lady

[justbizness45]

On another thread someone mentioned thinking that an old lady should just shut up and color. It reminded me of something and I hope you don’t mind if I share it.

Lady, it's your thread so you can share anything you wish. I for one find your observations fresh and enlightening. Please continue to share your thoughts. JB45

[XL-entLady]

Lady, it's your thread so you can share anything you wish. I for one find your observations fresh and enlightening. Please continue to share your thoughts. JB45

JB45, thanks for the vote of confidence! It made me realize that I should have clarified at the start of my story below that the person who made the comment about the lady was not talking about me! Oops!

I guess I didn't think about needing the clarification because in my everyday life I do have a nickname that everyone calls me but it's not "Lady". Sorry about the confusion everyone! Oh well, you can't teach an old dog new ....math....

Speaking of mangled proverbs, since the last few posts on this thread were a little heavy,we should lighten things up a little. So here are some more proverbs that make me smile:

It's always darkest before daylight savings time.
The pen is mightier than the pigs.
Two's company, three's The Musketeers.
If at first you don't succeed, get new batteries. And last but not least,
Laugh and the world laughs with you; cry, and you have to blow your nose.

Have a good evening, everyone!
Lady

[Steadygain]

Speaking of mangled proverbs, since the last few posts on this thread were a little heavy,we should lighten things up a little. So here are some more proverbs that make me smile:

It's always darkest before daylight savings time.
The pen is mightier than the pigs.
Two's company, three's The Musketeers.
If at first you don't succeed, get new batteries. And last but not least,
Laugh and the world laughs with you; cry, and you have to blow your nose.

Have a good evening, everyone!
Lady

Thank you Lady!

Why do we even get caught up in other things when we can reflect on this.

[XL-entLady]

Hi gang,

I just got back to a computer - - have been out of town all week and in an internet blackout to boot. And DAY-AMN! What happened while I was gone??!

I'd post the simple moving averages for this week but they are just too depressing! Suffice it to say that G and F Fund are the only ones that are currently above ANY of their moving averages.

I'm home long enough to do laundry and repack, and then I'm back on the road again next week, and will again be in an internet blackout. I'm currently in G Fund and I'm going to stay there. This market is way too scarey a place to tiptoe into when I'd have to stay for a week.

Y'all be careful out there!
Lady

[nasa1974]

You to lady.


May the force be with you.

[Frixxxx]

Hi gang,

I just got back to a computer - - have been out of town all week and in an internet blackout to boot. And DAY-AMN! What happened while I was gone??!

I'd post the simple moving averages for this week but they are just too depressing! Suffice it to say that G and F Fund are the only ones that are currently above ANY of their moving averages.

I'm home long enough to do laundry and repack, and then I'm back on the road again next week, and will again be in an internet blackout. I'm currently in G Fund and I'm going to stay there. This market is way too scarey a place to tiptoe into when I'd have to stay for a week.

Y'all be careful out there!
Lady

The market missed you (like we all did) and curled up in the fetal position. That'll teach you to go away for awhile! Missed ya! Have another safe trip and see ya when you get back....

[XL-entLady]

I'm back at a computer for the first time in days. And it looks like the scary markets still think its Halloween.

For those of you who might be thinking of moving somewhere, here are the figures. Please remember these are the percentages above or below their moving averages rather than just being the amount the price has risen or dropped. It's like that old rear view mirror sign: "Numbers in the mirror are larger than they may appear!"

F Fund is the only one that is trending well, but I don't understand that fund well enough to move there in these volitile times (probably better start learning, huh!) so I'm staying in the G Fund haven.

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,F Fund,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,,+0.0%,,,+0.2%,,,,+0.5%,,,-0.4%,,.,,,-0.7%
20 day SMA: ,,,+0.1%,,,+0.9%,,,-1.3%,,,-2.3%,,,,,,-3.6%
50 day SMA: ,,,+0.4%,,,+1.8%,,,-1.3%,,,-2.2%,,,,,,-7.6%
100 day SMA: ,+0.8%,,+1.9%,,,-4.7%,,,-5.0%,,,,-13.7%
150 day SMA: ,+1.1%,,+1.9%,,,-5.1%,,,-4.2%,,,,-14.7%
200 day SMA: ,+1.5%,,+2.1%,,,-6.2%,,,-4.6%,,,,-15.7%

The above numbers are the simple moving averages (SMAs) for each fund, based
on Thrift Fund share prices and simplified by being recorded only once a week. Because I'm
trying to look at trends I've highlighted any changes < or > 0.5%. Follow the column
down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.

[Steadygain]

F Fund is the only one that is trending well, but I don't understand that fund well enough to move there in these volitile times (probably better start learning, huh!) so I'm staying in the G Fund haven.

I'm so glad you're back! and hope you're having a 'good day'.

F Fund goes up (or down) in relation to C,S,I - in a reverse pattern.

If this is truely a BEAR MARKET setting in - it will only go up for a short time and come down with the others.

Nothing like G Fund Haven - and this is one of the very best perks we have as Federal Employees.

Have a wonderful day Lady, I'll be out most of the day - but it's good knowing you're around.

[FogSailing]

Hi Lady. I think your G Fund strategy is a smart one..I'm expecting a nice drop and soon, probably down to around 1210-1220, then down to 1175, then down somemore..that makes me plenty bearish...

GL to you and welcome back..I'm enjoying my Lily Pad vacation..

FS

[Guest2]

Welcome Back Lady !