Re: Malyla's Account Talk
Originally Posted by
Corepuncher
Also curious if the returns are much better or worse (and consistent) if you include the intermediate term ups and down on that cycle chart and not just the max and min.
Referencing Malyla's account talk post #106 - Excel spreadsheet on comparisons of B&H strategies.
I looked briefly at this and decided it's too risky. It works for some years but for this year you would have been stuck in the worst part of the downturn so far. The intermediate up term is from Late Feb 2008 to Mid March 2009. This includes the huge drop we have had recently. I believe that what the intermediate up term is telling you to do is to look for the Bull rallies in the Bear Market. For my initial quick look at these terms, I see large drops at those times but also brief rallies (2 weeks to 3 months in duration).
You are right that using other indicators to look for confirmation of bull and bear markets as well as warnings of when bull rallies or bear dips(in a bull market) occur can be done. I would like to catch those intermediate ups (in a bear market) and avoid the intermediate downs (in the bull market), but I was trying to make it easy on me and just see what would happen in the macro ups and down. If I can beat the growth return from the macro cycle B&H by catching the intermediate terms, then that is bonus for a very busy person who can't spend a lot of time on market timing. I still have 15 years to go, so just looking to avoid the bear market loss
I look forward to seeing your method. Every idea adds to one's knowledge
Last edited by malyla; 07-13-2008 at 05:39 PM.
Reason: more info
100% I August 14 (cob 8/14). Trying it again until Oct.
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