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Thread: Watching the Banks

  1. #13

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    Quote Originally Posted by CountryBoy View Post
    Amen Bullitt and when the music stops guess who won't have a chair to sit in. America already is brainwashed.
    We were invited to this dance???

    Look, I'm thinking the next time we get to 11,000, I'm out fool (pun) bore!

    I think we are going to see some more jobless numbers and that coupled with more European debt and no real estate movement this summer will crush us.
    THIS IS WHERE I WOULD PUT SOMETHING TO REPRESENT MY THINKING, BUT THEN THEY SHOW UP!
    Tracker =
    Check my position

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  3. #14

    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    Anyone know what was happened with Wells Fargo/Wachovia today (5/19/10).
    I saw early, they appareantly had dropped some on something about them returning/repaying a government bailout/loan - but I'd think that would be good news for them. Anyone hear on this bank, and can explain in lay-terms?
    "That's as good as money sir, those are I.O.U.'s" - from: Dumb & Dumber

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  5. #15

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    I can't take any 'news' serious since it has all been leaked to the major players days prior anyway. Without proprietary trading desks, the big banks (WFC, C, GS, MS, BAC and JPM) are bankrupted entities just like GM.

    I'm of the opinion that the music has been off since February when big volume selling came in on the downside. This is now what I call The Great Trap. Big money is dumping shares off to the little guy who really believes that this is merely an interlude within an ongoing drunken circus. The keg is kicked but there are still a few left trying to suck out the foam.

    Banks are underperforming the general market here. Take heed.

    Attachment 9448

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  7. #16

    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    Not sure where is best to post this (thinking of Poolman's Acct Talk, post of the Man-Of-Truth video earlier).
    Anyway, more rumors/rumblings coming out on financials/banking...

    Friday, June 4, 2010
    US financial markets may be shut down on Monday

    It is my collective read that US financial markets may finally be shut down on Monday June 7, 2010, if Fed Desks don't intervene on Sunday night.

    We have never been this close to the inevitable outcome.

    Every single day, it is becoming more visible to the masses that a large portion of the western civilization is bankrupt with no savings, no production, no growth, no future prospects.

    Today Hungary joined the club. Eventually they will take their creditors with them into abyss. Most of the Arab and Iran central banks are now switching from Euro to USD and Gold.

    Like Sol said, "Bear Market Rules Apply" but this bear is something you have never seen in your life. Save your wealth, children, family and future. 2008 was just a warm up.
    Last edited by hessian; 06-05-2010 at 04:21 PM.
    "That's as good as money sir, those are I.O.U.'s" - from: Dumb & Dumber

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  9. #17

    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    Analysis: G20 doesn't even try to put brave face on debt mess
    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6550SJ20100606
    U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks to the media during a news conference of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Busan June 5, 2010.

    ...GEITHNER ON THE LOSING SIDE
    One reason why the talks were heated, in the words of a senior South Korean official, was a rearguard action fought by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who argued that restoring fiscal sustainability was a task for the medium term.
    In a frank letter to his counterparts, Geithner warned that global growth would be sub-par if Europe -- especially Germany -- as well as China and Japan did not boost domestic demand to make up for the retrenchment forced upon overindebted U.S. consumers.
    ...And Germany gave short shrift to the view, shared by the IMF, that growth would take a hit in the short term if rich economies cut their budget deficits without adjustments by emerging economies to reduce their reliance on exports.
    "I made no bones about the fact that I share the IMF's underlying philosophy only in a very limited way," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said.
    It is never good news when two of the world's biggest economies bicker. U.S. pressure on Germany to change its monetary policy was one of the factors that unnerved investors in the run-up to the 1987 stock market crash.
    ...SETBACKS ALL ROUND
    With Europe signing up for austerity, it is no wonder that pessimists such as U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini see the euro zone heading for stagnation if not recession.
    And in the absence of a burst in private sector demand in current account surplus countries such as Germany and China, global economic imbalances could deteriorate again -- especially if a resurgent dollar undercuts the revival in U.S. exports.
    The immediate test, though, will be whether bond traders will be convinced by the G20's promise of probity.
    "Noble intentions by advanced economies to bring their budget deficits under control are rubbing up against the harsh reality of a weak and unstable recovery that might increase the need for further stimulus measures," said Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think-tank.
    Prasad, a trade professor at Cornell University and a former IMF economist, said the G20 had recognized the depth of the public debt morass and the consequent risk of global instability.
    "But the communique is unlikely to give bond markets much confidence that budget deficits will be brought under control with anything approaching the alacrity with which they were run up during the height of the crisis," he said.
    The G20 is grappling with complex issues. It is unrealistic to expect magic-bullet solutions from such a diverse group of rich and emerging economies. But it is tough to put a positive gloss on the Busan meeting.
    And, in the end, ministers did not even try.
    "That's as good as money sir, those are I.O.U.'s" - from: Dumb & Dumber

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  11. #18

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    Quote Originally Posted by hessian View Post
    ...
    Friday, June 4, 2010
    US financial markets may be shut down on Monday

    It is my collective read that US financial markets may finally be shut down on Monday June 7, 2010, if Fed Desks don't intervene on Sunday night.

    We have never been this close to the inevitable outcome.
    Cheer up. At least if the currencies of the world are worthless, and the markets shut down, we still have the "G" fund to play in.



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  13. #19

    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Cheer up. At least if the currencies of the world are worthless, and the markets shut down, we still have the "G" fund to play in.
    Good one James!
    Yeah, I thought by posting that from xTrends.com that others might uncover other news (either verify/not confirm). Best I could find was news from the G20 mtg. A good rap though: "G is just alright with me" (for now).

    PS Likely of minor interest, still, on the P&F chart - a new bearish P.O. there - now 920.
    "That's as good as money sir, those are I.O.U.'s" - from: Dumb & Dumber

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  15. #20

    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    Likely beyond "watching the banks." Or, maybe it is really watching "The Banks!"
    - Will this (China's) blatant manipulation be a one-day-wonder? - a sustained pop?, - or a flop?...
    http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/19/news...rate/index.htm
    "That's as good as money sir, those are I.O.U.'s" - from: Dumb & Dumber

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  17. #21

    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    Banks Dodged a bullet?

    "Hmmm.....
    June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Legislation to overhaul financial regulation will help curb risk-taking and boost capital buffers. What it won’t do is fundamentally reshape Wall Street’s biggest banks or prevent another crisis, analysts said.
    Probably.
    The ink is not yet dry and there's no vote yet on exactly what this bill actually is and does. I'll be doing my usual analysis once I have an actual stable copy.


    But what I can tell from watching CSPAN until the wee hours, and following the process as closely as I reasonably can without crawling up Barney Frank's skirt, this is what we got:
    • Banks will have to spin off SOME (but not the important parts) of their derivative operations. The parts they care about (and on which they make the most money) are not credit-default swaps, they're interest-rate and FX swaps. Those are pretty much left alone, and that stinks. Bet on them trying to find every possible way to keep those "custom" as much as they can and thus off exchanges, even though that's almost entirely bogus and intended only to rape the consumer of those products by hiding price discovery.

    • Investing in hedge funds is a red herring. Controlling them is another matter, and might in fact be worthwhile reform. We'll see. Color me skeptical on this one until I can read the ACTUAL text as passed.

    • It appears that language that would prevent banks from taking positions opposite to their clients (as opposed to hedging market-making risk) has survived. This would prevent the Goldman-esque game played with various CDO structures. Again, I wait until I can read actual language before I call this good.

    • Increasing capital is good. Not forcing that capital to cover all unsecured lending is bad. The attempt to split the baby and keep the "credit leverage" game is clear in the legislation, but so far nothing they've tried has made that actually work, nor do I think it can. Thus, the major factors in the instability we experienced remain intact and that's bad.

    • Fannie and Freddie are left out of it. That's horrible. I know the banks went bananas on the possibility they'd be constrained, but they need to be constrained and the banks need to be forced to pay for their part of interacting with Fan/Fred and causing this mess. Not in this bill it won't, and that sucks.
    Much of the bill also won't do anything immediately, as it "enables" rather than directs in and of itself. That's very bad, as the regulatory capture process remains intact. What actual regulations will come out of this remain an open question.
    On balance: Better than no bill, and Judd Gregg claiming that the bill is a "disaster" and will "dramatically contract credit" is just pure garbage. What it will do is stop a small amount of unsupportable and unsustainable lending, but nowhere near enough of it. It will not stop excessive risk-taking and risk-layering. The capital requirements aren't stringent enough, the "Volcker Rule" was watered down to the point of being of little effect and the derivatives regulation was eviscerated.
    Oh, and nowhere that I can find - thus far - is there an "or else" for either a bank or a regulation for violations of the law.
    On balance, thus far, I call it this:

    All bun to (try to) soothe the masses and electoral anger, no beef."

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...-A-Bullet.html
    "That's as good as money sir, those are I.O.U.'s" - from: Dumb & Dumber

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  19. #22

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    Bank stocks zoomed higher today.

    The banks won.

    There still will be "TOO BIG TO FAIL".

    They won't be broken up.

    Sucks.

    All we got is some window dressing. That's it.

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  21. #23

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    The ONLY thing you have to know is this-

    Yesterday, Citibank closed at $3.77 a share.

    Today, it closed at $3.94 a share.

    You tell me- you think anything at all is going to be done to control the banks????

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  23. #24

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    Banks just diverged away from the S&P in a major way after that ruling. Makes me thing the watered down version isn't as harsh as the crooks believed it would be.

    Attachment 9625

    www.stockcharts.com

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