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Thread: Short Term Outlook

  1. #25

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    Short Term

    December 5, 2005

    It's kind of easy to see the short term when you have a steady long term pattern.

    See attached (weekly) S&P 500 for the past two years.

    The overall trend has been up(bullish)and steady according to the 40 day moving average.

    In the short term there are monthly cycles of bullish and bearish movements. However, these cycles have established higher highs and higher lowsin the two year span.

    The market is currently good for both buy and hold and short term position trading.

    The key, as always, is to buy low and sell high!

    Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

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  3. #26

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    [align=center]Short Term

    December 12, 2005

    Caution we are still in the twilight zone!

    The zone pictured via the DOW is 10825 - 10725

    Currently the RSI is hot: overbought
    The P-Sar is a short
    The MACD is also a short along with the 15dMA

    We are at a high, not the time to buy!

    Position: capital preservation[/align]

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  5. #27

    Default Possible drops in funds...

    I had been looking at the CSI funds, If we get a fall...... I'm speculating the I fund index (EAFE) will be around 56, S fund index (Wilshire 4500) -1215, and the C fund (S&P 500) possibly in the mid 530's....

    Of course this is what may happen, whether it does or not remains to be seen....
    Last edited by The_Technician; 01-05-2006 at 07:44 AM.
    The Technician (escapades at times as Carnac)


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  7. #28

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    Unhappy Market Change

    I have read TSP Talk for some time now. I have my own techinques to track the market but I also consider TSP Talk information.

    I would like to insert what I believe is going to happen to the market. The S&P 500 (C Fund) has reached a new level at 1290, DJ Wilshire 4500 (S Fund) will reach its new level at 577.50, and International EFA (I Fund) will reach its new level at 63.75. After a new level is reached, generally a sharp fall in price follows. So I believe stocks may not be the place to be either Thursday or Friday for a few days to a week or so.

    Of course as we have all seen, the market plays funny games with us. But you can bet I will be watching the market very close after tomorrow's close.

    I tried day trading for a few months and did fairly well. I made money but, because of our limitation on reallocating funds, I could have done better staying with fund trends. I now am a believer on staying with fund trends. Buy into an increasing fund trend and sell on a decreasing fund trend. That of course will result in missing the trends by about a day or two but the pay off is much better.

    I also believe that the I Fund is managed from 2 pm one day to 2 pm the next, based on MST time zone. So that has to be figured in on using the I Fund.

    I would like to know if anyone agrees with me on the short term future of the market.

    Thanks,
    Bogeyman

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  9. #29

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    Cool

    Bogeyman,

    I agree with your analysis, it looks like we are getting close to a top before we consolidatate and go higher... But I also don't think we are in for any major pullbacks yet... I still have a buy on small caps from 1-4-06 and I'm waiting for a consolidation on Internationals to go long.

    Short on Germany, Long on Hong Kong. I also agree that the market will drift lower into Friday.

    I think you should get a better price on the I Fund soon. It has already started some much needed consolidation.

    Final thoughts: The BULLS are still in control of this market. And as you pointed out, "Of course as we have all seen, the market plays funny games with us." THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND!!! CURRENT TREND IS STILL UP!!!!


    Comments from a Very Good TA that also agrees with you. So if it rallies WITHOUT CONSOLIDATING THIS WEEK I guess we are all wrong!!! Written before the Market open on Monday.

    Conclusion
    The Senticator is Bullish and the survey data support higher prices early in the week. We're also seeing lots of hints of a near-term top looming. We know, however, that the market will typically rally INTO any top from these types of readings. The options data modestly support a pullback but the readings we see allow for more rally. The Rydex Data did show a large Bullish asset shift and so does the message board actual position poll. The technical picture is quite positive and the weekly MACD turned back up implying a couple of weeks, at least, on the upside. Our best guess is that we rally into a short-term top on Wednesday and then pull back to consolidate for the next leg up. Our call is up into a top on Wednesday, then chop lower into Friday.

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  11. #30

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    Cool Will 1260 Support Hold

    Friday looked like a panic selling climax and 1260 held. It was a wild Day Friday! Interesting, but In my opinion it's a corrective move of an overbought condition. I have been heavy fixed income, and added shares to my long term portfolio Friday. Could see some more downside, but I think the Market will drift up next week. When the S&P hits 1350, 1260 will look good. In my long term portfolios with Vanguard two moves a year keeps you invested most of the time.

    In the short term I think we drift higher by the end of next week!

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  13. #31

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    Default Liquidity is the difference

    Robo,

    Liquidity is the difference between what could be a "crash" and what is just an emotional reaction.

    At the close of trading, the Dow dropped 213.32, or 1.96 percent, to 10,667.39, giving back all of the 325 points it had gained this year. That was the largest one-day decline since April 15, '05 when the index slipped 1.9 percent. It was also the biggest one-day point drop since the Dow lost 307.29 on March 24, 2003. That was the culmination of the triple bottom that started in July'02, it then proceeded to have a 3000 point upmove.

    If my facts are correct the DTA has to hold 4/05 low of 3379.78 - currently at 4158.48 and the DJIA has to hold the 4/05 low of 10,012.36 - currently at 10,667.39 to prevent a Dow Theory secondary sell signal from triggering.

    The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, or VIX, which is derived from options on the S&P 500, surged 2.58, or 21.5% to 14.56. Its Nasdaq 100-based counterpart the VXN jumped to a level not seen since last May. Simply put, the rise in volatility measures means that people are getting ready for bigger moves. Let's do it.

    Dennis

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  15. #32

    Default Market is indicating

    that the first week or so of Feburary is questionable.. ...I don't want to scare you out of your investments but I have data that indicates that we could get another drop......reasons could be from anything ....don't count out from interest rates increases to geopolitical situations....
    The Technician (escapades at times as Carnac)

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  17. #33

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    Default ? Another Dow Theory secondary confirmation in the making

    The Dow Transports placed another new all-time high offering a confirmation of the DJIA when it penetrated 11043. The Dow Utilities are fast approaching their own co nfirmation when they penetrate 437, they showed some spunk on the close today. I'm sure the A/D line is still not diverting, and it's very, very rare that price will top without A/D divergence.

    No. this bull would rather take punishment than panic. Put your ear to the rails - can't you hear the hoofs of the Longhorns approaching - it's one big herd. Big move down could not produce follow through - now stand back and wait for the big move up - maybe 300 points or more. The Bears best get off the tracks because the melt-up is coming. Kinda like the MOAB for Iran.

    Dennis - permabull #2
    Last edited by Birchtree; 01-24-2006 at 03:46 PM. Reason: confirmation

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  19. #34

    Default Researched drop possibility

    Quote Originally Posted by The_Technician
    that the first week or so of Feburary is questionable.. ...I don't want to scare you out of your investments but I have data that indicates that we could get another drop......reasons could be from anything ....don't count out from interest rates increases to geopolitical situations....
    Remember I predicted earlier (EOY) that we would get a market rise early in the year and then a correction would be coming our way....I thought that we could get a drop in above comments....

    After further research, I firmly believe we will get a market correction after the first of Feburary.......it looks to be that a sudden drop is a smaller possiblity, but a drop could begin for a month or two ....given that during this period we have Spring break and such (oil price rise-could we be going to $100/bbl??), I wouldn't totally count it out.....

    Don't forget the dollar value....it seems to me after doing some currency analysis, the dollar value drop could be coming towards an end.....this would be in time for the above dates....
    The Technician (escapades at times as Carnac)

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  21. #35

    Default

    S fund hit a new high

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  23. #36

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    Cool

    We didn't close at a new high, though. Did we?


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