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Thread: Syria Crisis

  1. #1

    Default Syria Crisis

    Just curious if anyone has made any adjustments within their portfolio due to the upcoming strike in the Middle East. Should I dump everything into G for a week to see if I make any gains? Your thoughts? Thx.
    Last edited by catak; 09-03-2013 at 11:10 AM.


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  3. #2

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    Default Re: Syria Crisis

    Yup, I've made adjustments. But not solely for the fiasco that is Syria. Lots of Black Swans taking flight.

    However, in my dumb opinion, it is never wise to play the retirement investment game 100%. At least if you don't have a system you are successful with - and I don't. My 60/0/20/10/10 split results in an Annual Return of 3% and an Annual Risk of 4% about 67% of the time. Also, it will slow down a collapse so I can bail in time to avoid a loss this year. However, what if things improve. Maybe leadership from Germany, England, Israel or somewhere else smooths things out and the equities market booms. Then I catch 40% of the gains. If you are 100% out than you have no capability of gaining anything because the large gains are usually at the beginning.

    Plus, I have learned it is never wise to market time on politicians.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  5. #3

    Default Re: Syria Crisis

    Great point, Boghie!

    So, do you hold those splits at 60/G, 0/F, 20/C, 10/S and 10/I? Here's mine: 30/G, 0/F, 45/C, 20/S, and 5/I. I haven't been very proactive on how to calculate my quarterly returns and adjust accordingly. Do you have a system of your own? Check out tsp center. Your thoughts? Thx.

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  7. #4

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    Lightbulb Re: Syria Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by catak View Post
    Great point, Boghie!

    So, do you hold those splits at 60/G, 0/F, 20/C, 10/S and 10/I? Here's mine: 30/G, 0/F, 45/C, 20/S, and 5/I. I haven't been very proactive on how to calculate my quarterly returns and adjust accordingly. Do you have a system of your own? Check out tsp center. Your thoughts? Thx.
    According to the Quicken thangy your:
    • Expected Annual Return: 5%
    • Expected Risk (Variance): 8%

    That means that one can expect an annual return from -3% through +13% in any normal year...

    And, no, I really don't have a 'system'. I normally fluctuate between three allocations - with a little alpha thrown in for panache:
    • Aggressive: 2% G, 15% F, 48% C, 19% S, 16% I Expected Return: 6%, Expected Variance: 9%
    • Normal: 12% G, 22% F, 39% C, 15% S, 12% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 8%
    • Conservative: 12% G, 27% F, 37% C, 13% S, 11% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 7%

    With the 'F Fund' being all bubbly I move those assets to the G. As you can see I am beyond Conservative right now, but not in a complete panic.

    And, yes, when I shorthand the allocations I use: G/F/C/S/I
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  9. #5

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    Default

    This Syria thing is very upsetting. I'm discovering that neither party cares as much about my TSP balance as I require.

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  11. #6

    Default Re: Syria Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by MrBowl View Post
    This Syria thing is very upsetting. I'm discovering that neither party cares as much about my TSP balance as I require.
    You're wrong.

    The politicians care very much about your TSP. They are highly concerned that you have too much money. And they are deeply regretting have not figured out a way to pocket every dime of whats yours.(and mine)

    But in time, they will.
    I like TSPTalk and I think most people here are well-intentioned but if I followed their advice, I'd be hunkered down in my basement with a thousand cans of tuna fish.

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  13. #7

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    Default Re: Syria Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by FAB1 View Post
    You're wrong.

    The politicians care very much about your TSP. They are highly concerned that you have too much money. And they are deeply regretting have not figured out a way to pocket every dime of whats yours.(and mine)

    But in time, they will.
    Politicians have FERS and TSP like you but pay more. Yes they care and it is difficult for them to cut their own retirement. Put yourself in their positions, then think for a change.



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  15. #8

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    Default Re: Syria Crisis

    CatK,

    See how silly it would have been to be all out because of Syria (that is, all G). Things may - and probably will - change, but nobody has a crystal ball. Equities have a bias for the upside. Why??? Because you have millions of folks trying to create business and make money. Only the Gubmint tries to lose money. Since so many are grubbing for cash, and since they succeed in general, the market goes up.

    Easy...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  17. #9

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    Default Re: Syria Crisis

    I still think that Congress votes the Syria strike down. It's just the top guys that have to puke up this "lets go bomb Syria" stuff every day and hammer down the market. I want to be in the market Monday when the rest vote it down.


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  19. #10

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    Default Re: Syria Crisis

    Any congressional member that listens to their constituents should vote no. The TARP vote was a biggie, and 5 years is not that long ago. How many dems will vote to bomb? Isn't that against most of their fundamental values? The president must have some arm-twisting argument that we just don't know about. I just don't think it will work as it did for TARP.

    I think the market wants to go up. It's tried each of the last several days, and only gets hammered down when a politician calls for bombing. If they keep their mouths shut the market rises. I'd like to see a "probable vote" count soon to see if I'm way off or if I'm close. There's got to be a decent amount of congressional members that are looking past the bombs' impacts and wonder what the plan is, and know that peace will not be the outcome.

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  21. #11

    Default Re: Syria Crisis

    Just a reminder that this is not the Political Forum. It was posed as a TSP question originally. There is a discussion currently going in the Political Forum on Syria...

    http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/politics/17783-%2A-syria.html

    Thanks.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #12

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    Default Re: Syria Crisis

    Looks like congress will pass the POTUS' request, I want to get out of the Market the day before this happens.



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