January and February

01-28-2005, 11:43 AM

The last 3 days of a month and the first two days of the next month tend to be the most bullish, so I'm expecting our lackluster rallies to continue next week.

HOWEVER, February is still traditionally a bad month for all indices and particularly bad after a down January.

February has also traditionally been the worst NASDAQ month of the year in post election years (avg down 4.5%).

**rokid** · 01-28-2005, 07:05 PM

"If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians." - Warren Buffet

**tsptalk** · 01-28-2005, 07:08 PM

rokid wrote:

"If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians." - Warren Buffet

Speaking of Warren, he owns 96 million shares of Gillette which is up $5 today after the Proctor & Gamblebuy out. Nice day. :shock:

01-28-2005, 07:42 PM

rokid wrote:

"If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians." - Warren Buffet

"Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it." George Santayana

And anyway, if past history were all there was to this game, then the HISTORIANS would be the richest people, not the librarians. The librarians merely point the historians in the direction of the history books. *LOL* I think Warren is great but even he isn't always right.

**rokid** · 01-28-2005, 08:35 PM

Hey, I work with librarians and Warren's quote is LOL funny!

Anyway, who's the better investor? Buffet or Santayana?:^

01-29-2005, 07:16 PM

Hey rokid, "past history"? What history isn't past history?

As I said before, Warren is a great investor and great American, but I don't think he is as brilliantas, say, Albert Einstein or Bill Belichick. *LOL*

**Rolo** · 01-29-2005, 09:16 PM

saraho wrote:

As I said before, Warren is a great investor and great American, but I don't think he is as brilliantas, say, Albert Einstein or Bill Belichick. *LOL*

Agreed. However, he is richer and this is an investment board. :dude:<-- Frizz B.

I heard on Bloomberg that the OoO added 4M shares pre-buyout.

**rokid** · 01-30-2005, 02:06 AM

Hey rokid, "past history"? What history isn't past history?

"future history"?

"If grammarwas all there was to the game, the richest people would beEnglish teachers".----Rokid

OK, you get the last word.

Go Pats!!! :^

**Mike** · 01-30-2005, 06:29 AM

I don't think this is the time to emphasize seasonality - January is typically a very strong month, and look what we've been through thus far. :shock:

01-30-2005, 07:47 PM

Mike wrote:

I don't think this is the time to emphasize seasonality - January is typically a very strong month, and look what we've been through thus far. :shock:

Well, IHMO, that's exactly WHY we need to review seasonality. It assistsus in knowing where we are and where we are going....and what we should do. Past Januarys like this one generally resulted in poor years...

**Mike** · 01-31-2005, 05:43 AM

...but the year ends in five, which is bullish.

02-02-2005, 01:32 PM

The C fund for January 2005 was down 2.4%

During the past 50 years, January's S&Phas been down 20 times. Of those 20 times, the following month of February was down 13 times (65%).

January February

-0.7-1.8

-0.8-4.7

-0.9-3.9

-1.0-0.4

-1.6-2.1

-1.7-3.7

-1.8-6.1

-2.0+1.0

-2.7-1.7

-3.6+3.5

-3.8+1.6

-4.2-3.3

-4.4-3.1

-4.6 +1.3

-5.1-2.0

-5.1 -2.2

-6.2 -2.5

-6.9 +0.9

-7.1 +0.9

-7.6 +5.3