Best day for Monthly Contributions?

**TiCKed** · 03-15-2006, 06:39 PM

I had trouble picking a forum to post this question since it’s really not TSP related, but does deal with market timing. I figured the “Short term strategies” category fit better than most.

Here’s a question for the masses…

For my mutual fund company, I have a pre-programmed monthly contribution set up. My question: Based on historical monthly data, is there a specific day or portion of the month that would be the “best” for contributions? i.e., a day that is historically lower than the rest of the month?

I avoided the first of the month since there seems to be a general rise in the markets due to influx of money. Currently I’m buying at the close of the 14th of every month, but over the last few months that has proven to NOT be a good day. Wondering if that has just been a fluke, or if I unintentionally picked a “bad” day.

Tom

**mlk_man** · 03-15-2006, 06:57 PM

Just as a very general rule, COB the 2nd Thursday of the month.............

**mlk_man** · 03-15-2006, 07:13 PM

Since I have my charts in front of me, since the beginning of 2005 your purchase prices for the S fund would be:

2005
Jan: 14.01
Fed: 14.38
Mar: 14.48
Apr: 13.86
May:13.90
Jun: 14.77
Jul: 15.53
Aug: 15.70
Sep: 15.87
Oct: 14.89
Nov: 15.87
Dec: 16.40

2006
Jan: 16.98
Feb: 16.95
Mar: 16.95

A couple of these may be wrong because I assumed any 4 day week to mean Monday was the holiday.

**mlk_man** · 03-16-2006, 05:14 PM

Hmm, thought I might get some back-lash for these posts..........

**TiCKed** · 03-16-2006, 08:07 PM

Originally Posted by mlk_man

Hmm, thought I might get some back-lash for these posts..........

Backlash? Not from me....Those of us who are ignorant don't get to lash-back.

I haven't had a chance to look at your dates, or back fit any puchase dates on my mutal funds, but I plan to. I'm guessing the problem will be that it will come out to be pretty random, except that maybe the 1st, 15th, and 30/31st may show some minor up-swing being the more "common" dates for money inflow. Maybe my 14th is too close to the 15th. If data shows this is right, I'll consider the 10th or something.

Probably not worth worrying about.

Tom

**Soldat** · 03-16-2006, 09:36 PM

Just my opinion but, in a secular bull, just buy all the way up. The sooner you drop the money in, the better in the long run.

**shiftomnimega** · 04-09-2006, 09:14 AM

I find this interesting. I set my auto-EFTs set on the 16th of the month just because it's the day after my second pay period of the month. I just picked the earliest day that I'd have the most extra money in my account. I never thought to market time it. What if our fund companies found out that we were market timing when we invested? Think they'd bar EFTs on those days?

**mlk_man** · 05-11-2006, 06:26 PM

Originally Posted by mlk_man

Just as a very general rule, COB the 2nd Thursday of the month.............

Guess what today is?

**mlk_man** · 05-11-2006, 06:29 PM

BTW, last month was $17.55 which was the 2nd cheapest day of the month to buy.......................

**ayla** · 05-11-2006, 07:16 PM

Originally Posted by mlk_man

Just as a very general rule, COB the 2nd Thursday of the month.............

mlk_man --
Do you have any idea where this VERY general rule came from? It would be nice to know if it is one of those "urban myths" or whether there might actually be some basis to believe it is a good day to buy.

**mlk_man** · 05-12-2006, 12:41 PM

Ayla, it's based on my own research, but hey, urban myths have to start somewhere right?

I researched it for the past 4 years then got tired so it's not been tested through a bear year. Of course, is there such a thing as a "best day" then.......

Happy returns,

M_M