Thread: 2005 Bear Market

Guess this guy was right on. He made this statement on Dec. 31st, 2004. I don't expect the S & P to reach 1220. However I do believe we'll be able to play the peaks and valleys. Just be careful and keep your eyes open. :shock:Things can switch quickly. I wish I had seen this earlier..........

Good luck,

M_M

"The SPX hit its bear market low at the 4-Year Cycle trough in October 2002, which means that the bull market has lasted two years and three months, about three months shy of the average bull market.
This bull market has been unusually strong. The corrective phase following the 2003 up leg took most of 2004. What is most significant about that correction is that it took the form of a slightly downward, sideways consolidation, cheating the bears of the sharp decline they had been expecting. The consolidation finally resolved upward in November, decisively penetrating two important levels of resistance.
Because the consolidation was so long, it built a solid base for another strong up leg. Assuming an angle of ascent similar to that of 2003, and the theoretical limits imposed by the top of the rising trend channel structure, it is not out of the question for the SPX to approach 1400. Certainly, 1300 is well within reach.
The 9-Month Cycle is due to crest in the March-April time frame, so I will be looking for an important top to form then. If the market follows the 4-Year Cycle ideal (which it rarely does), that top will mark the beginning a bear market lasting into October 2006, which is when the 4-Year Cycle trough is projected to arrive.
As I said, the above is an educated wild guess about the future. Presently the market is in a strong bull market trend, and the weekly PMO shows that it is only modestly overbought. The trend won't last forever, but there is no technical reason to think it won't last for three or four more months. (There is no guarantee that it will, either.)
Beyond the possible top in the first or second quarter suggested by the current chart picture and cycle projections, I have no idea how far prices may correct or where they will be by the end of 2005. No idea whatsoever. I will, however, predict that you will all have a Happy New Year! "
--Carl Swenlin