Thread: S-fund Challenge! Guesses

Originally Posted by userque

'u Welcome

Yes, I've seen JTH use three inputs! Calendar day; Month; Day of Week. Doing this requires a lot of data to get a large enough and statistically meaningful sample size...hence, going back to 1955 and such. The issue with using old data is...well...it's old. Ask and answer for yourself: do the markets move today, with Super Montage, etc., like they did in the 50's and 60's...or 70's...or 80's...or even 90's.? If not, you're using "bad" data. That's another example of where a NN does well. As I've stated earlier, it can detect and account for subtle (or gross), "hidden," or complex variances. (Of course, the better and cleaner the data; the better the results.)

I thought I heard my ears burning. All historical data is relevant within the context its used in, there are different trends during different decades, bull/bear markets, indexes and shifts in money flow. Many of these subtle differences are outlined in the Stock Trader's Almanac, I don't think we can call the data bad but we can say it can be interpreted badly. This is the reason I post data as recently as the last 10 occurrences, 20 years, and 50 years. When using seasonal data it's more important to look at the forest, not the trees, it is but one of many tools I use. Sometimes seasonal data flows with the grain, sometimes against it, the trick is be able to distinguish and accept the difference.

Originally Posted by JTH

I thought I heard my ears burning. All historical data is relevant within the context its used in, there are different trends during different decades, bull/bear markets, indexes and shifts in money flow. Many of these subtle differences are outlined in the Stock Trader's Almanac, I don't think we can call the data bad but we can say it can be interpreted badly. This is the reason I post data as recently as the last 10 occurrences, 20 years, and 50 years. When using seasonal data it's more important to look at the forest, not the trees, it is but one of many tools I use. Sometimes seasonal data flows with the grain, sometimes against it, the trick is be able to distinguish and accept the difference.

Well...if you like it, I love it.

Originally Posted by userque

Well...if you like it, I love it.

Thanks, one of the things I forgot to mention, sometimes there are a huge days say +/- more than 5%. I dislike these events, they skew the average returns and if aren't taken into account, they can lead to false impressions, this is why I add Top & Bottom 3 stats.

Originally Posted by JTH

Thanks, one of the things I forgot to mention, sometimes there are a huge days say +/- more than 5%. I dislike these events, they skew the average returns and if aren't taken into account, they can lead to false impressions, this is why I add Top & Bottom 3 stats.

Yeah, I noticed you do that. Helps to keep things in proper perspective, imo. I, like many others, do appreciate your diligence!

Do you think Intrepid will let you get back into the competition?

Originally Posted by userque

Yeah, I noticed you do that. Helps to keep things in proper perspective, imo. I, like many others, do appreciate your diligence!

Do you think Intrepid will let you get back into the competition?

Is there a competition, perhaps I wasn't invited.

For me, getting tracked by the Auto tracker is just fine. There are some great systems out there but I think the money management portion is the the most important and overlooked part. You may notice that when we get deep into these pullbacks, some folks start to second guess themselves, that's just torturous to watch...

Originally Posted by JTH

Is there a competition, perhaps I wasn't invited.

For me, getting tracked by the Auto tracker is just fine. There are some great systems out there but I think the money management portion is the the most important and overlooked part. You may notice that when we get deep into these pullbacks, some folks start to second guess themselves, that's just torturous to watch...

Invited???! You were there in the beginning. But, I understand.

Money management is key. No Limit Hold'em will teach us that.

Yeah, it's sad...but we've got a job to do! Help others as best you can, but keep it moving. Sometimes, experience and pain is the only successful teacher. It's part of the process. Animal kingdom type of stuff.

20140416a.jpg

Updated chart to use ANNUALIZED RATE OF RETURN and with final predictions.

4-16-14 Closing value changed slightly to 988.69. The next Tally Sheet, including the trader's stats, will properly reflect that change.

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

I'd watch out for this zzzgator guy. He might be one of those silent ninja assassins!

It has come to my attention that zzzgator has requested to be taken out of the S-fund tracker. Reason: Didnt know he was being tracked and that he can't post his guesses everyday.

Folks, you don't need to post daily. No guess means you'll be in cash. If you ever had a hunch on what the market will do the next day -- up or down -- then the tracker will let you know how good those hunches are over time.

up... maybe... but I won't have time later to guess so up it is...

4/21/14 down (pattern 2/grn-grn-red, S 51.7%).