Thread: Average TSP Balance at Retirement

Yah, I'll keep buying G for the time being. I'll buy into other funds when the trend indicators get better, or as I learn how to read them better faster. I'll have most of the CP I started with before the downturn beginning of the year when I'm ready plus new funds contributed in the meantime. I goofed up between August and December last year when I was just starting to learn about trend indicators but I still beat all funds but the F last year even so thanks to this site and starting to learn about charting. The USGS retirement calculator site (best calculator I've found for TSP) tells me I need to be putting in 10% every year between now and retirement, and earning 10% annually if I'm ever going to get over 600K in my stash, much less more than that, which would be best for maintaining something close to current living standard. I do appreciate the encouragement that it can be done in the timeframe I'm looking at. I just don't have the B&H cushion you have.

Originally Posted by alevin

I don't think I'll be retiring at 62, the 4.5 year gap in SS substitute $ til I hit 66.5 would hurt too much. I need to do better than 7% on an annual basis for the next 13-15 years to feel ok about retiring, and heck, I'm thinking I'll need to work part time til I'm 70 even at that. CP is critical when you're mid-career. B&H through last major downturn hurt me bad, but thanks to this site, I'm doing a whole lot better this time round, even in autotracker. And my real account is 5% ahead of where I am in autotracker (autotracker is my chart theory playground)

What is CP ?

Originally Posted by Greg

What is CP ?

Sorry Greg, my fingers get their wires crossed with what's in my head at times. CP stands for capital preservation. What I should have said was PC (preserved capital!!!!)
The indicators I'm working with just aren't fast enough for this market right now, every time I get a bead on it, it switcheroos on me (which makes me glad I'm in PC mode for real).

but I read something tonight that should help me find the right rhythm finally, if the market keeps behaving like it has been. I'm just looking for the right moment next month probably-with the play account. If I can get it to work there, I'll try it with some real skin. check this out....

http://http://quantifiableedges.blog...onment-in.html

tell me if I'm wrong, but about 10 years ago the Dow was a tad below 10000. 10 years later, in 2008, it's currently at 11500 and dropping. 10 years ago, in 1998, CD interest rate was at about 5.5%. and now it's at about 3-4%.. so, the CD paid more over the last 10 years than a tsp.

Originally Posted by alevin

The indicators I'm working with just aren't fast enough for this market right now, every time I get a bead on it, it switcheroos on me (which makes me glad I'm in PC mode for real). ...
but I read something tonight that should help me find the right rhythm finally, if the market keeps behaving like it has been. I'm just looking for the right moment next month probably-with the play account. If I can get it to work there, I'll try it with some real skin. check this out....

http://http://quantifiableedges.blog...onment-in.html

Alevin, that was a very interesting article but it felt like it should have been titled, "How NOT to Trade the Choppiest Environment in 50 Years". I can tell from reading the article that my current strategy of "buy strength and sell weakness" is not the plan but I didn't get a strong enough endorsement of ANY plan to feel better about something else.

It sounds like you may be on the verge of figuring out a strategy, so what was YOUR take-away from the article?

TIA for any insights!

Lady

Originally Posted by alevin

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.p...91&postcount=6
Quote:
http://community.federalsoup.com/4/OpenTopic?a=tpc&s=4944011921&f=2514011031&m=776103 7361

posted April 06, 2008 02:09 PM April 06, 2008 02:09 PM

"TSP data shows that FERS participants in the 40-44 age category and with 20 years of federal service have an average account balance of $138,616.If their contributions and investments grow by 7 percent over that 20 years, Long projects these employees would end up with $955,488 in their accounts.".....

"If" their contributions grow by 7%, Mr Long? That's not helpful. I can do that calculation too. By coincidence I've made an average 7% per year in 18 years of service. But I bailed out into G during 2001-2002.

If I hadn't watched my investments and parked in C, or G for that matter, I would NOT have 7%. These gains don't just fall out of trees! [meow! CRUNCH! falling bird tastes good with milk!]

Originally Posted by Silverbird

"If" their contributions grow by 7%, Mr Long? That's not helpful. I can do that calculation too. By coincidence I've made an average 7% per year in 18 years of service. But I bailed out into G during 2001-2002.

If I hadn't watched my investments and parked in C, or G for that matter, I would NOT have 7%. These gains don't just fall out of trees! [meow! CRUNCH! falling bird tastes good with milk!]

Same here, Long talks a big game, but I doubt if he has ever made a honest living, because he sure has lied like a rug to us. Screw him and his..... Just the mention of his name makes me realize how he has cheated and lied to us and cost us thousands of dollars.

CB

Originally Posted by XL-entLady

Alevin, that was a very interesting article but it felt like it should have been titled, "How NOT to Trade the Choppiest Environment in 50 Years". I can tell from reading the article that my current strategy of "buy strength and sell weakness" is not the plan but I didn't get a strong enough endorsement of ANY plan to feel better about something else.

It sounds like you may be on the verge of figuring out a strategy, so what was YOUR take-away from the article?

TIA for any insights!

Lady

Lady my dear, I'm going to move this part of the conversation back over to my account talk, follow me over there if you want to hear what I'm thinking-its still taking shape in my muzzy brain.

As I posted a couple months ago, L isn't the place to be, especially long term L. This is the first test of L in a downturn, but I'm not going to test it with my toes!
----------------------------------
Hello, little birdeens out there, it's time for the midyear assesment!

C, S, I, L2040, L2030: Tweety: "I taht a tah a Puddy Ta...."[*crunch* meow that tastes goood with milk]

L2020, L2010, LIncome: Tweety: *Flapflapflapflap* [*crack* goes the branch] *SQUAWK* *Yipe* [Wile E Coyote fall]

G, F: Tweety up in a tree, picking at a branch with only a couple leaves left. He looks down, "I taht I taw a Puddy Tat! I did! I did!" Sylvester is sitting picking out the blues on a guitar. Next to him is a pile of bird seed.

Not that I'm guessing the best but it's better than getting eaten:
Silverbird at 0.69% sitting on a low bare branch a bit above Silvester: *Squawk, squawk,squawk* (grumble). "Not much here to add to my nest egg!"

They want us in L Funds, pure and simple. The question is, why? If they want us there, it's not for OUR good...it's for Barclay's. Remember the regulatory rule of thumb, if regulators are in favor of it, it's good for THEM, not necessarily good for YOU. Here's a few interesting facts.

• All of TSP's $225B is invested in Barclay's index funds - no others. Every payday there is a guaranteed influx of new cash into those funds via payroll contributions. Nice for Barclay's! Especially since they have no requirement to make good on losses if they go under. Barclays was substantially invested in the two BSC hedge funds that failed last year that sounded the alarm on the credit crisis, and has sued to recoup losses. I can't get any information from BGI as to whether or not any % of the TSP index funds were invested in those hedge funds.
• $224B in TSP as of July 13, 2007 (see http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0707/071307rp.htm). There is $225B in TSP as of July 2008, a year later. The fund grew by just $1B in a year...despite new hires, despite a "membership drive," despite earnings, despite contributions, despite that peak last year. Compare this to the growth over the past 5 years.
• TSP loans and withdrawals have increased since MAY. FRTIB is attributing this to people withdrawing for living expenses. IMO this need is just a small percentage of the drawdowns, especially considering the timeline...May is when the limited IFT's rule took effect. I think the majority of the money withdrawn is being used to fund other investment accounts. Several MB members have made outstanding returns doing this.

L funds are money losers this year. 1% of the TSP was moved to G and is now earning 4%. Sanchez is SURPRISED people would move their money from losing funds for CP in the current economic climate? And he's on the Board? It's time DOL changes the law so that FRTIB is filled by representatives elected by TSP members, not political appointees.

Hi L2R,
I was hoping someone would weigh in with some facts, to really discusss this isuue. Excellent!
One more set of facts I wish we could find out (don't know if possible):
What number/percerntage of folks on the TSP Board are currently 100% in an L-Fund (without arm-twisting of course);
What number/percerntage of folks that are on the the FRTIB?;
What number/percerntage of folks that work for DOL?

Originally Posted by luv2read

They want us in L Funds, pure and simple. The question is, why? If they want us there, it's not for OUR good...it's for Barclay's. Remember the regulatory rule of thumb, if regulators are in favor of it, it's good for THEM, not necessarily good for YOU. Here's a few interesting facts.

• All of TSP's $225B is invested in Barclay's index funds - no others. Every payday there is a guaranteed influx of new cash into those funds via payroll contributions. Nice for Barclay's! Especially since they have no requirement to make good on losses if they go under. Barclays was substantially invested in the two BSC hedge funds that failed last year that sounded the alarm on the credit crisis, and has sued to recoup losses. I can't get any information from BGI as to whether or not any % of the TSP index funds were invested in those hedge funds.
• $224B in TSP as of July 13, 2007 (see http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0707/071307rp.htm). There is $225B in TSP as of July 2008, a year later. The fund grew by just $1B in a year...despite new hires, despite a "membership drive," despite earnings, despite contributions, despite that peak last year. Compare this to the growth over the past 5 years.
• TSP loans and withdrawals have increased since MAY. FRTIB is attributing this to people withdrawing for living expenses. IMO this need is just a small percentage of the drawdowns, especially considering the timeline...May is when the limited IFT's rule took effect. I think the majority of the money withdrawn is being used to fund other investment accounts. Several MB members have made outstanding returns doing this.

L funds are money losers this year. 1% of the TSP was moved to G and is now earning 4%. Sanchez is SURPRISED people would move their money from losing funds for CP in the current economic climate? And he's on the Board? It's time DOL changes the law so that FRTIB is filled by representatives elected by TSP members, not political appointees.