Thread: Trader System

I think you are confusing systems. For one thing, Trader Fred doesn't use a crystal ball. You may be thinking of the infamous Carnac. Trader Fred's allocations are always posted here ... www.tsptalk.com/system.html.

Fred did move to stocks on the 9th but that only lasted a day or two.

i could very well have been confused but i'd sure like to see what was there prior to what was written today. i read it every day including the weekend days to see if anything has changed and i'd swear that thurs. or fri morning he said he was moving to stocks. whatever i didn't follow it anyway.

Originally Posted by walli1

i could very well have been confused but i'd sure like to see what was there prior to what was written today. i read it every day including the weekend days to see if anything has changed and i'd swear that thurs. or fri morning he said he was moving to stocks. whatever i didn't follow it anyway.

Oh, now I understand. My mistake. Yes, he had that new short-term trading system he was playing with that gave a buy signal last week. You are right. I have not heard anything else so I assume that is still in the stock funds.

I had mentioned that it was an unofficial signal since it was not part of the current TSP Trader System so I wouldn't be tracking it (returns-wise). But we will give the signals when they come in.

Sorry for the confusion.
Tom

And here is the email alert that was sent Friday (It's all coming back to me now)

"This email alert is more of an FYI at this point. One of Trader Fred's new short-term trading sub-models, "W3", has given a short-term buy signal. I will not put the system into a buy allocation since this is not part of the original 12 submodel system. The system remains 100% in the G fund but I wanted to let you know of this signal in case you wished to act on it yourself."

gotcha, thanks. i didn't think i had totally lost it. partially maybe but not totally.

Wow. Anybody catch Trader Fred's comments today. Anybody want to translate? ... All I got was... Market go boom... I tried, I really did.
I keep reading his comments hoping that some of it will rub off on me.

I think I did catch something about hesitation and release. I think that translates to getting to the top or bottom of a cycle and being able to note that. Anyway, interesting stuff...

Tom's Sentiment Survey is much easier to understand.

I know what you mean. I just pass his info along but this is one reason he wanted to use this site because he knew he couldn't write in a way that others could clearly understand. We may have to do something differently at some point.

He mentioned late last week that he expected a big move down between Monday and Thursday of this week, but he asked me not to mention it because he was just testing another theory and thought it was premature to make any "guesses". Ironically he also said the system came very, very close to a buy signal Monday COB, but fell just short.

Uh-Roh... I think I understood Fred's comments today. Maybe not completely but I got a little better understanding of what he looks for in one of his graphs.

I think I am starting to see the ideas behind the Trader Fred. But sometimes the comments are a bit .....uh well.....well see for yourself......."That is exactly where we are today with a four day pileup and again directly in front of the loss-gain boundary. Therefore, the market either is gathering enough strength to release into the gain region, or has failed to acquire that strength. If the latter, the market release will be to the left, further back into the loss region."

For it to be a "system" shouldn't it give you a direction to go in instead of both sides of the fence conclusions?

Originally Posted by sugarandspice

I think I am starting to see the ideas behind the Trader Fred. But sometimes the comments are a bit .....uh well.....well see for yourself......."That is exactly where we are today with a four day pileup and again directly in front of the loss-gain boundary. Therefore, the market either is gathering enough strength to release into the gain region, or has failed to acquire that strength. If the latter, the market release will be to the left, further back into the loss region."

For it to be a "system" shouldn't it give you a direction to go in instead of both sides of the fence conclusions?

I was thinking the same thing. Sounds sort of wishy-washy. And also, I'd think that his system would err on the side of being in the market, given those choices that he states, since in the long run, it is better to be in than out. I think that is what is hurting his returns. His system seems tailored to those that are 5 years from retirement rather than the long term investor. What I mean is that it seems that his goal is to outperform the G fund, not the stock indices.

Does Trader Fred have a goal in mind for this system? Like a benchmark or % to achieve? Is it stated anywhere? Or simply just T&E mode for now? FYI, I am a loyal reader of it everyday.