What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?
I predict .75% average over September and October 2011. QE2 Has yet to be unwound. The FED has pledged to keep yields low until 2013. Treasuries will continue to be a flight to security for the time being. Also, check out the chart I compiled.
Month |
Return |
|
Month |
Return |
Sep. 2004 |
0.26 |
|
Oct. 2004 |
0.83 |
Sep. 2005 |
-1.07 |
|
Oct. 2005 |
-0.81 |
Sep. 2006 |
0.89 |
|
Oct. 2006 |
0.67 |
Sep. 2007 |
0.75 |
|
Oct. 2007 |
0.96 |
Sep. 2008 |
-1.47 |
|
Oct. 2008 |
-2.18 |
Sep. 2009 |
1.1 |
|
Oct. 2009 |
0.39 |
Sep. 2010 |
0.06 |
|
Oct. 2010 |
0.31 |
|
|
|
|
|
Avg. |
0.07 |
|
Avg. |
0.02 |
Avg. Positive Months |
0.612 |
|
Avg. Positive Months |
0.632 |
That's my 2 cents. I am 95% in F fund until we shake out September's remaining volatility.
-E
Re: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?
I am kinda thinking we get a repeat of August this month in bonds. Your prediction for October sounds about right. I expect a lot of volatility this month, both bonds and stocks. I don't think it will be a smooth ride in either.
Re: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?
All I know is we got screwed on FV today!
Re: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?
Does anyone know what the percentage of AGG that is owned by the F fund? Just curious. Anyways, my post is about Operation Twist. Operation Twist is going to lower our G fund returns a good bit more than they re right now. That being said, I think a lot of money will b squeezed out of short term trasuries and make it into other high grade debt that actually returns something.
I think this will make AGG look attractive, especially now that the AGG prices retreat a little with the spike in equities. If you get ahead of the FED we could see a nice monthly return in bonds. The question is when to get out. This Greek debt thing is getting a little unnerving. While the market rallied today with the news out of Europe. I think it is a set up for a huge drop only for the mega rich to get back in for the exchange of wealth.
-Emo
Re: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?
Bonds have always given me the woolies - stick with the large cap C fund and I fund for further gains. We could easily bust right up through the recent bear flag and turn it into a bear head fake.