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Thread: Brexit

  1. #1

    Default Brexit

    On 6/23 the British will vote on whether to leave the European Union

    Polls show the "Yes" (leave) vote is leading the "No" votes.

    Brexit Battle Gets Bitter With Polls Showing


    The bettors are still favoring the "No" vote winning out.

    https://www.predictit.org/Contract/7...-end-2016#data
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  5. #3

    Default Re: Brexit

    Is Brexit good for America? Nope


    If Britain leaves, it raises the chances of another crisis in Europe which could spread to our shores. It is simply not in our interests to watch the UK walk away from the EU.
    Is Brexit good for America? Nope | Brookings Institution

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  7. #4

    Default Re: Brexit

    The situation will only get more ridiculous the closer it is to June 23 =/

    Pound, U.S. stocks rebound after Brexit campaigns suspended - MarketWatch

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  11. #6

    Default Re: Brexit

    "The reason: BBC eyewitness reports (later questioned) suggesting the killer shouted 'put Britain first' "

    Global Stocks Rebound As Brexit Odds Decline Following Tragic Death Of UK Lawmaker | Zero Hedge

    "Odds on the U.K. leaving the EU slid to 38 percent after hitting a record 44 percent on Thursday, according to Oddschecker calculations based on bookmakers’ quotes. “If you do see uncertainty, that typically will drive voters to the status quo,” "

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  13. #7

    Default Re: Brexit

    Brexit Polls Gives 'Remain' A Boost As Referendum Nears=

    LONDON (Reuters) - The campaign to keep Britain in the European Union regained its lead in two opinion polls published on Saturday, giving a boost to Prime Minister David Cameron who is battling to avoid a historic “Out” vote in Thursday’s referendum.
    A third poll also showed a change in momentum in favor of the “In” camp and Cameron got the backing of a leading newspaper when the right-leaning Mail on Sunday urged its readers to vote to remain in the EU.
    “We are now in the final week of the referendum campaign and the swing back towards the status quo appears to be in full force,” Anthony Wells, a director with polling firm YouGov, said.

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  15. #8

    Default Re: Brexit

    Recent Brexit polls are leaning more toward the "stay" side, and the bettors now have it at 3 to 1 staying.

    https://www.predictit.org/Contract/7...-end-2016#data
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #9

    Default Re: Brexit

    The "exit" side of the Brexit bookmaker bet is down to 17% at the moment, and that's why we are seeing the futures moving significantly higher.

    However, CNBC has a correspondent out in London and she has been talking to folks around the city and said the sentiment seems to be heavily on the "exit" side. That's just London and Britain is a large area, but she also said it is raining heavily over there and that could keep people away from the polls only bringing out the most enthusiastic voters, and the ones with the most enthusiasm seem to be on the side of leaving the EU. So, you never know. It's going to be interesting.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  19. #10

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  21. #11

    Default Re: Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by jpcavin View Post
    It's actually similar to stock market action. When someone responds to the question, "Why were stocks down today?" with a snaky, "More sellers than buyers", it's not always the case. If one big investor sells 10,000 shares of a stock, he could be selling it to 100 different small investors. More buyers than sellers, but who do you think may know better?

    That's how I look at it. A smart money bet.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #12

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    Default Re: Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    It's actually similar to stock market action. When someone responds to the question, "Why were stocks down today?" with a snaky, "More sellers than buyers", it's not always the case. If one big investor sells 10,000 shares of a stock, he could be selling it to 100 different small investors. More buyers than sellers, but who do you think may know better?

    That's how I look at it. A smart money bet.
    Never thought of if that way. That's why you rule. Thanks, Tom.
    EDIT: But I'm still going to try to steal your chips.

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