Thread: Brexit

Lack of Brexit Exit Polls:

"Regardless of who commissions an exit poll, results can’t be reported until after the polls close. Section 66 of the Representation of the People Act of 1983 bans the publication of any forecasts or predictions for elections before the polls are closed. People can say—or tweet, or Instagram—how they voted, but they cannot tally their friends’ votes and stick that on Facebook."

The most recent polls were very close (52% to 48% and 51% to 49%), both in favor of "remain", but they weren't exit polls. They were phone calls out to 5000 people.

This means they weren't necessarily voters, and I still think the more motivated voters are the "Leave" side and they may have been more likely to have gone out an voted in the rainy weather.

Everything is pointing to a close win for the "Remain" vote, but I am not overly confident that it will hold. And if it's too close to call on the first count, it may delay the results and uncertainty continues. I don't really have anything riding on this. It's just a thought based on everything I'm hearing.

Originally Posted by Khotso

Maybe the smart money has better insight into election results, I mean, about-to-happen election fraud.

Because all elections are fraud in "your world?"

Voting turnout was very high, I'm hearing, and that's a good sign for the "Remain" vote.

The futures are rising again after hours on the latest poll... 54% Remain, 46% Leave. They sure like to take surveys across the pond.

The futures are going bananas (up and down) as early results showed a small lead in the "Leave" vote. It was only 5 of over 330 areas scheduled to report but they expected those 5 areas to vote for "Remain".

High drama for sure. Assuming the Bremain's seize the day, it makes for an interesting day tomorrow. If futures rise in a big way overnight is it a setup with a big gap opening followed by an after noon selloff as big money takes profits or does the market rise higher? While it would have be nice to be in today, I'm glad I sidestepped this one.

FS

"Leave" is getting higher votes than some thought only a few hours ago. First results in UK's historic referendum on EU membership - BBC News

Reporters saying it is definitely going to be "too close to call" for some time yet.

Markets and the Pound going all over the place.

60-point swings in S&P futures. Up 10, down 50, now down 23.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

60-point swings in S&P futures. Up 10, down 50, now down 23.

I hope you Bremain on the right side of those swings.

Trading on a night like this can get you bre'oke.

Leave has 51.3% of votes counted so far