Thread: bmneveu's Account Talk

IFT into the market 25C 25S 50G. Leaving half out just in case we see lower prices.

~1973 closing is so close to the neckline; I am very happy with that entry price. I will probably regret only putting half my money in but it's better to be safe than sorry at this point.

Why did i leave half my money out?!

Thought about putting the rest of my money in today, but tom pointed out that tomorrow is the only seasonally red day for awhile. I'll wait another day before deciding what to do.

Originally Posted by bmneveu

Thought about putting the rest of my money in today, but tom pointed out that tomorrow is the only seasonally red day for awhile. I'll wait another day before deciding what to do.

bmneveu,

Congratulations for your successful IFT entry on 12/16. I think you acted wisely when you reserved 50% as a defensive measure. I saw and liked your careful consideration before deciding what to do, because we have seen painful head fakes deplete our well deserved profits before. I have some dry powder left to invest, but am also weary of making a bad decision.

I don't know whether I will keep some money in cash or not, because I am seriously wrestling with the decision. I could be chasing a potential surprise to the downside. Nevertheless, I do find that in this message board there are two of the most respected members that recently went and bought in in full force. JTH and MJR. The very interesting info they posted yesterday is a big weight in the balance in favor of the buy side -- to the point that the charts and statistics they posted are very supportive of buying-in.

JTH posted the PnF, TRAN "bearish signal reversed, double top breakout chart", and MRJ posted the quite bullish Santa rally statistics. So, I think we have a decision to make. I will appreciate that you post if you are buying or holding. The reason I ask is because you rightly mentioned Tom's statistics that today might be a down day. It may or may not happen exactly today, but JTHs and MJRs charts and/or statistics are also very persuasive. With so much liquidity, low interests, and seasonality, we might see good gains here (or not). As of this writing, cash futures are positive. Tia and Good Luck!

Originally Posted by airlift

bmneveu,

Congratulations for your successful IFT entry on 12/16. I think you acted wisely when you reserved 50% as a defensive measure. I saw and liked your careful consideration before deciding what to do, because we have seen painful head fakes deplete our well deserved profits before. I have some dry powder left to invest, but am also weary of making a bad decision.

I don't know whether I will keep some money in cash or not, because I am seriously wrestling with the decision. I could be chasing a potential surprise to the downside. Nevertheless, I do find that in this message board there are two of the most respected members that recently went and bought in in full force. JTH and MJR. The very interesting info they posted yesterday is a big weight in the balance in favor of the buy side -- to the point that the charts and statistics they posted are very supportive of buying-in.

I will appreciate that you post if you are buying or holding.

Thank you for the kind words! Long story short, I'm getting in. I can't write much now but I will justify my entry later today. 50C 50S.

Looks like you may be getting the price pause you were looking for.

Some food for thought before I head out... Projection for next leg of the Inverted H&S Pattern!

SPX 23DEC14.jpg

Edit: Don't mind my notes on that volume spike. I think that was a glitch.

I redrew the projection lines to have the gain/retrace amount match the size of a traditional Inverted H&S pattern (relative to the rest of the setup). I'm also guessing the peak will be on January 5th, to match the historically strong string of days coming up. I put the rest of my chips on the table today and plan to keep them there until on or around the 2nd trading day of January, which is the 5th. That will keep me fully exposed to the full extent of the santa claus rally, and then out in time to skip the dip back to the neckline. Looks like the peak could be between 2130 and 2140, 50 points north of where we are now. Mid January looks like a potential target area to get back in at the low of the dip.

Edit: Oops loaded 2 versions of the picture. Old one shows 50 day moving average in blue, new one has that removed and replaced with a blue projection line from left shoulder low to projected peak.

Originally Posted by bmneveu

I redrew the projection lines to have the gain/retrace amount match the size of a traditional Inverted H&S pattern (relative to the rest of the setup). I'm also guessing the peak will be on January 5th, to match the historically strong string of days coming up. I put the rest of my chips on the table today and plan to keep them there until on or around the 2nd trading day of January, which is the 5th. That will keep me fully exposed to the full extent of the santa claus rally, and then out in time to skip the dip back to the neckline. Looks like the peak could be between 2130 and 2140, 50 points north of where we are now. Mid January looks like a potential target area to get back in at the low of the dip.

Edit: Oops loaded 2 versions of the picture. Old one shows 50 day moving average in blue, new one has that removed and replaced with a blue projection line from left shoulder low to projected peak.

bmneveu,

Thanks for your posts and charts. I hope the Santa rally really takes off. If your projection is right, we could make good gains. Assuming the market behaves as projected, I hope we can get out, as we take something off the table. Nice work.

Well, I was going to click the "like" button for your posts, but for some reason, the like button has disappeared on all the threads. I saw that earlier today as well. Seems something is going haywire with the slow website and missing buttons, so I guess I'll just tell you that I like your charts, and hope Tom gets the gremlins out of the servers.