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Thread: bmneveu's Account Talk

  1. #841

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    IFT today to 50F/50G. I will do the best I can to sit on my hands and wait for a better price to come back in on.

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  3. #842

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    The F Fund was quite gentle on us today all things considered. It settled in at -0.05% while freestockcharts.com shows -0.48% for AGG and my stock app on my phone shows -0.22%. I don't know which AGG is right, but I do know our F Fund outperformed it, like usual. I especially enjoy the F Fund outperforming its parent index when I am invested in it!

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  5. #843

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    The F Fund was quite gentle on us today all things considered. It settled in at -0.05% while freestockcharts.com shows -0.48% for AGG and my stock app on my phone shows -0.22%. I don't know which AGG is right, but I do know our F Fund outperformed it, like usual. I especially enjoy the F Fund outperforming its parent index when I am invested in it!
    AGG pays out a dividend at the beginning of every month, stockcharts.com factors this in, while other charting websites don't.

    https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...oDQ&authuser=0
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  7. #844

    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Thanks, bmneveu - for hitting 900 posts!
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  9. #845

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    AGG pays out a dividend at the beginning of every month, stockcharts.com factors this in, while other charting websites don't.
    I had no idea about that and always wondered the same thing of why such a difference. Thanks for the explanation!

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  11. #846

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    AGG pays out a dividend at the beginning of every month, stockcharts.com factors this in, while other charting websites don't.

    https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...oDQ&authuser=0
    Thank you! I knew about the dividend, but did not know it hit (and that hard) at the beginning of the month. That is something to consider in my IFTs going forward!


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  13. #847

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    I gotta look closer at the charts tonight but at this level I'm tempted to put half my money in. That might happen tomorrow. I'll save half to buy more just incase we head lower. I could see 2000 at the lowest, but I don't want to wait and miss the next leg up.

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  15. #848

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Using SPX (S&P500) for this post because my notes all over the SPY chart make it look like a mess.

    The line for the top of the channel is the neckline for the inverted head & shoulders. The bottom line is something I made to create a channel from the left shoulder low, parallel to the neckline. That gives us an idea of how far our right shoulder can pull back. We'll see 1970 if the right shoulder touches that line. A more moderate consolidation could bring us to the 50 day moving average (the blue line), which is just shy of 2000 right now. I think we touch that (the 50day) at a minimum, and that is where I will put money into play. Whether it be tomorrow at 1998 or a week from now at 2005, I'll put half my money in when we meet the 50 or it meets us. If we slice right through it I'll probably jump all in. I should be 100% in equities if/when we touch the bottom of the channel. That will probably coincide with the seasonally bullish santa rally that starts in, what, about a week or so? Should be perfect!

    SPX 10DEC14.jpg

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  17. #849

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Wow it is tough to not buy some of this weakness, but I still think we have another 15 points to the downside at least (at the time of writing this we are at 2,016 on the S&P500). Below you will see I added a few diagonal white lines to the chart. I measured the size of the pullback on the left shoulder and then created a parallel line and placed it on our recent high, which occurred 05 DEC. This shows the pullback potential of the right shoulder if we mimic the left shoulder from our recent high. It would bring us to around 2000, almost exactly. If we ignore the high and stay true to the channel, we have a downside target of 1970-1975ish, depending on how steep the selloff is.

    SPX 12DEC14.jpg

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  19. #850

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Wow, serious selloff at the close today. Looks like we are ending around 2003 on the S&P. A rough estimate shows we are within 10 points of the same size pullback as the left shoulder. I would have been very happy with that entry price if I decided to jump in today. I will certainly look for an entry point early next week.

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  21. #851

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    Wow, serious selloff at the close today. Looks like we are ending around 2003 on the S&P. A rough estimate shows we are within 10 points of the same size pullback as the left shoulder. I would have been very happy with that entry price if I decided to jump in today. I will certainly look for an entry point early next week.
    Agree 100%. My target was 200 (SPY) for entry. This morning we were within 1% so I moved to 100% S. Even bought some TNA before lunch @ 80.28 I think. Come home to find a steep selloff at close right on my target. Very happy right now. Oil is the unknown....

    Jeff
    CURRENT ALLOCATION = 100% G
    Fear is the greatest buy signal ever seen in the stock markets - Birchtree

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  23. #852

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ATCJeff View Post
    Even bought some TNA before lunch @ 80.28 I think.

    Jeff
    70.28, I hope?
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.

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