Thread: Bquat's Account Talk

Redrew my charts from the last bigger dip to see shorter term reaction after the dip:

Funds:

So since the trend lines are shorter term, we'll have to see how they continue into the normally better part of the year.

You may have called the "cup and handle" right Bquat. SPX was pulling back at the close but the VIX was still quite helpful on Friday. I'm now thinking we will see a 20 point pullback on SPX (Monday or Tuesday) before we move on to a higher high. It will be interesting to see if JTH's assessment holds true next week (S and F Funds outperform next week based on their historic probabilities). Thanks as always for the charts.

FS

So with Black Friday sales starting November 1ST, I think the Black Friday sales report will be a moot factor as an indicator of future holiday sales. Holiday sales began on Halloween. So everything being on sale already scarring anyone about the economy? I'm seeing a 30% discount on all TVs. Must be labor wages in China dropping or flooding the US market in products.

Here's another theory for this year's holiday. With Gas prices so low this holiday will be filled with travel. This year many will do something they have been putting off for years. They will go see out of town family. Major purchases and large gifts will be passed up this year to enable more funds for travel. TVs and appliances purchases will be made post holiday. JMO

Originally Posted by Bquat

Here's another theory for this year's holiday. With Gas prices so low this holiday will be filled with travel. This year many will do something they have been putting off for years. They will go see out of town family. Major purchases and large gifts will be passed up this year to enable more funds for travel. TVs and appliances purchases will be made post holiday. JMO

It has been written and so shall be read by the masses and become so. Just kidding guys.

Originally Posted by Bquat

It has been written and so shall be read by the masses and become so. Just kidding guys.

Somebody must be reading this because Futures are down.

BQ: You had me LMAO and rolling on the floor....

Thank you. I needed that...

FS

Originally Posted by Bquat

So with Black Friday sales starting November 1ST, I think the Black Friday sales report will be a moot factor as an indicator of future holiday sales. Holiday sales began on Halloween. So everything being on sale already scarring anyone about the economy? I'm seeing a 30% discount on all TVs. Must be labor wages in China dropping or flooding the US market in products.

There's something of an underground movement going on to make the whole Thanksgiving weekend about family again, with some stores (like REI) pledging not to open, and some groups trying to get people to stay home and boycott the mall. Mostly I think the stores are just realizing how much bigger the cyber sales are becoming, so maybe they can save some manpower costs by not opening over a holiday, while also gaining "good company" points by showing how much they love their employees. I think it ends up with no significant difference when sales and earnings come in. Short version, I concur with you opinion that Black Friday sales are going to be less of an indicator this year and in the future.

Originally Posted by anthony

There's something of an underground movement going on to make the whole Thanksgiving weekend about family again, with some stores (like REI) pledging not to open, and some groups trying to get people to stay home and boycott the mall. Mostly I think the stores are just realizing how much bigger the cyber sales are becoming, so maybe they can save some manpower costs by not opening over a holiday, while also gaining "good company" points by showing how much they love their employees. I think it ends up with no significant difference when sales and earnings come in. Short version, I concur with you opinion that Black Friday sales are going to be less of an indicator this year and in the future.

Remember as I said last year "When Black Friday sell figures are reported they don't include increased labor costs." So profit goes up 40% while labor cost up 50% and this was last year. Stores are trying to get more sells before Cyber Friday this year. Just my guess.