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Thread: Rogue's Account Talk

  1. #1

    Talking Rogue's Account Talk

    So, I've pretty much bought & held ("let it ride") until now.

    History:
    2007 PIP: 6.3 %
    2008 PIP: -29.79%
    2009 PIP: 23.02%
    2010: 10.12%

    I started putting $$ into S & I funds when they were first introduced, and added the same amount to them since then. For no real rational reason.

    So, I'm going to begin using IFTs, a modified Sentiment Survey Signal System, and keep some $$ in L2030 & L2040.

    My plan is to not go 100% in any one fund at a time.

    During "buy" signals when the SSSS signals 100% S or C fund, I will keep some in the other stock funds (C, S, & I) also.

    During "sell" signals when the SSSS signals 100% G fund, I plan to keep a small percentage in the stock funds also.

    Just made my first real IFT.

    Goal : > 2.5m by retirement (after 2030).

    Let's make some $$.


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  3. #2

    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Arkansas
    Posts
    30

    Default Re: Rogue's Account Talk

    Good Goal, and Good Luck!

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  5. #3

    Default Re: Rogue's Account Talk

    From the Sentiment Talk thread...

    Quote Originally Posted by SkyPilot View Post
    Rogue, I am enjoying your posts. I think I am catching on to your thought on using the "L-Funds" Is the following right? Are you leaving a specific percentage or amount in a couple of L's over time, and just moving the rest around?

    ...


    If this is the case, the L with a close horizon (L-20) with less exposure might be more in line with your needs as opposed to those with a higher risk (L-40).

    Thanks, yes that's a good assessment of what I've written and spot-on about the lack of a defined approach. I have a general theory of what I want to do, which is be more aggressive while I can afford the risk.

    I absolutely welcome the critique and plan to consider feedback as I tailor and develop my plan.

    Yes, I'm leaving a chunk (about 30%), split between L2030 and L2040.
    That is my "buy and hold" portion and I don't intend to move it around.
    I won't retire until at least 2030, so I plan to be more aggressive for 10 years or so.

    The exposure I'm trying to avoid by using L funds is exposure to my own mistakes, not exposure to market bumps and bruises.

    So far, I've just about mirrored, and outperformed by a bit, the longest L fund. Last year my PIP was 10.12%, and it looks like I could have easily done better if I had been more invested in S, and especially if I followed the Sentiment Signals. Same story in most years. I had a great 2009, not sure how Sentiment Signals did there (edit, not as well), and an awful 2008, but would have been less bad if I'd moved in line with sentiment. In retrospect, I've been way over-invested in the C-fund and underinvested in S.
    Last edited by Rogue; 01-01-2011 at 01:32 PM.

  6.  
  7. #4

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Wink Re: Rogue's Account Talk

    Rogue,

    How did you get your PIPs for earlier years? When I change the date in the TSP website I no longer have the option of clicking for a 12 month PIP...

    The PIP is more commonly known as an 'Internal Rate of Return' or a Compound Annual Growth Rate. Quicken computes it perfectly for me - but it is quite a labor of love to get the data in there.

    Do you have a secret you can tell us little people
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  8.  
  9. #5

    Default Re: Rogue's Account Talk

    It's in your annual statement.

    Well, it only goes back to '07 on the new site.
    If you click on "statements" near the top left after you log in,
    it is defaulted to quarterly statements.

    If you look though, there is a tab for "annual statements" right under where it says "Participant Statement: Civilian."

    Then, after opening a year, the chart on the top left includes the
    Pesonal Investment Performance.

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  11. #6

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: Rogue's Account Talk

    Awesome, thanks...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  13. #7

    Default Re: Rogue's Account Talk

    Did you find it, Boghie?

    Correction: PIP is 14.13% now. Too late to edit previous post.

  14.  
  15. #8

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Wink Re: Rogue's Account Talk

    Rogue,

    You might want to review the retirement calculators at DinkyTown.net.
    Maybe make an investment in Quicken Premier.
    Also, look at the MoneyChimp. CAGR. Investment Performance.

    You will need tools like these to work out what your annual paycheck contributions and expected rate of return are needed to make your goal of $2.5 million. For example, using Quicken I would need to contribute about $13K and have an annual return of 11%. Workable, but a stretch for a dude who is 46. And, that 11% annual return would have to include lots of stock at 63 years old. But, it would net me an annual income of over $100K a year after tax. Then you get to add your pension and Social Security.

    If I can get there I think I'll stare at the purty girls in Istanbul - if the wife will let me



    -----------------------
    I found the reference to my earlier PIPs. Thanks Rogue...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  16.  
  17. #9

    Default Re: Rogue's Account Talk

    Thanks again, Boghie.

    So, I entered my 2nd IFT in a couple of years on Friday afternoon.
    It was to be effective @ COB today, right?


    So, does anyone know...
    When does it show up on tsp.gov?
    When does it show up on autotracker?
    (Both show that I made the IFT, the funds just haven't been moved yet).


  18.  
  19. #10

    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Kentucky
    Posts
    5,260

    Default Re: Rogue's Account Talk

    You should be able to see the effects of that IFT before tomorrows open but I do not work for the TSP.
    Should show up on the AutoTracker when posted this evening.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

  20.  
  21. #11

    Default Re: Rogue's Account Talk

    New allocation entered today @ 10:55 AM, will be interesting to see when it is in effect on tsp.gov.

    2050 - 5
    2040 - 10
    2030 - 10

    C - 35
    S - 25
    I - 15
    ____________

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  23. #12

    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Pensacola, FL
    Posts
    6,312

    Default Re: Rogue's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue View Post
    New allocation entered today @ 10:55 AM, will be interesting to see when it is in effect on tsp.gov.

    2050 - 5
    2040 - 10
    2030 - 10

    C - 35
    S - 25
    I - 15
    ____________
    If you are civil service, you missed the deadline noon yesterday. Next one takes place On 3 March. Makes sure your allocation reflects what you want by noon that day. Payday is the 4th of March.
    If you are military, I would guesstimate that you would have to make your selection by noon on the day before payday, normally 14th and 30th/31st.

  24.  
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