Thread: Safetyguy's Account Talk

As point of background, I am a mid career, mid level, gov worker with a couple of hundredthou in the TSP. The goal is to get things to appreciate to well over a million in the next 15 years. So both growth and capital preservation are my goal.

Here is my "investing logic" --

I use the free analysis tools on Yahoo for each of the funds and try and use objective criteria to make myallocation choices. Assuming I can't be right 100% of the time, I hope to be right more often than I am wrong.

Here is an example of the free Yahoo tool. You can enter the symbol for the TSP surrogate index (i.e. AGG, ^GPSC, EFA) to get the same info for the other funds.

example


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^DWCPF&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l& p=&a=p12,r14,f14,m26-12-9,w14&c=


For a three month period, I try to figure out which indicator has the best correlation to the up/down price of the particular index. You can take a look at the same charts and see if you can find the same patterns. (I print them out, take a ruler and mark a line down from the best buy and the best sell dates and see which indicater is "most predictive". )

For instance, right now it looks like the W%R looks like the best fit to each of the TSP funds. The MACD isn't bad either but not as close a correlation. Based on this my interpretation for the upcoming week is as follows:

The EAFE (I Fund surrogate) may be starting an uptrend and hopefully it will start on Monday. If you already have it, hold it and see. I wouldn't buy in until it drops further.

I wouldn't get into the AGG (F Fund surrogate) right now. It seems on a downward trend and will stay there a while.

The S&P 500 (C Fund surrogate) seems like it is on a downward trend. Again a hold recommendation. I have a lot in C right now hoping for the Santa Claus rally. Hopefully emotions and gut feelings won't cost those who are in C.

The DWCPF (S Fund surrogate) looks like it is in an upward trend. If I had money in G, I would be dumping it into S right now.

Currently 51C, 30S, and 19I. Depending on howthings go on Monday before noonEST, I may dump my I and goto something like Tom (70S 30 C). Like everyone else, I'll read Tom's comments because sometimes his gut read on things isn't too far off.

Also, my strategy is also changing. I find it too hard to try and time all these changes on a day to day basis. Everytime I have tried to catch the market, I have failed. The 12 noon ET deadline and being unable to make another change that will be effective until COB the next day is a "day and a half"window of vulnerability if your timingis just a bit off. I think I will look at thingsas more medium and/or long term trends but time will tell.

Unlike others who have a secret system, I have laid out my strategy in glorious details. These are just my thoughts -- let me know whatyou think and/or any other refinements that should be included.

I think I will be paying close attention to your comments and allocation changes. You are doing a lot of hard work, and your contributions will be well received. Thanks, and Merry Christmas! <><

Safetyguy wrote:

Unlike others who have a secret system, I have laid out my strategy in glorious details. These are just my thoughts -- let me know whatyou think and/or any other refinements that should be included.

Sounds like a solid, well thought out strategy. I look forward to your input.

Now get working on a secret system, will ya?

Awesome! Being a fan of the more technical, I am staying tuned.

Looking at C like this: (copy and paste link)

Code:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e50,e10,e20,v&a=w14,r14,m26-12-9&c

has me keeping my eye on it now. Perhaps using an MA and W%R together may be the ticket to keep from selling too quickly and having to buy back at a higher price yet avoid most of a dip.

Safetyguy wrote:

Unlike others who have a secret system, I have laid out my strategy in glorious details. These are just my thoughts -- let me know whatyou think and/or any other refinements that should be included.

Yahoo hasgood charts that will give various technical analysis. I am in agreement with you, and have all the TSP funds set up on individual charts. Yahoo seems to be the easiest to set up and use.

There are other free sites with variations there of, i.e:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?SPX

Good luck to you Safetyguy, keep us posted on what you figure out on the technical analysis, andthose indicators, how well they work.


Rgds Spaf

Spaf wrote:

There are other free sites with variations there of, i.e:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?SPX

This is an interesting site albeit somewhat more complicated than Yahoo-- I'll play with it a bit and see if anything interesting turns up. Thanks!! :^

Went 45C 45s 10I

Wanted to catch some of those gains in the I fund today.I am still nervous about some of the technical indicators. They are at a point where they can trend up or down. Why gamble in I when things look more solid in C and/or S.

Putting more into S -- we'll see if that is a good move or not.It looks good from a technical standpoint but todays' oscillating prices are of concern. All the talking heads think small caps have run their course and the big run up will be in the S&P. Hopefully they will be right (just for today) and the price of S will be down a bit at the end of the day.

I was going to park some cash in G until tomorrow or Wed (to buy whatever is low tomorrow or Wednesday). Since it now looks like 7 days between penny increases, the penny earned in G didn't come on Friday.Since the G will probably pick up a penny today and why buy the gain!! I'll gamble & stay fully invested in the stock funds.

Never mind -- see previous comment

No change – letting everything ride at 45C 45S 10I.



I did well yesterday moving half of what I had in I plus adding a bit more from C into the S fund– it was fortunate that I was able to sell high and buy low (I usually end up doing the opposite) . The stocks that hit the S fund the hardest seemed to be component makers for the Apple I Pod. I thought I Pods were selling like crazy so who knows. I think it was a blip for the S. The technical analysis still looks good for the next day or so.



Today, I debated taking everything out of “I� but I couldn’t figure out the best place to put it. I also played the opposite extreme – did I want to put more into “I�? While I don’t see it dipping down in price, I don’t see it increasing as dramatically as the C and the S can.

Went 10 G, 45 C, 45 S to be effective COB today.



Dollar seems to be mixed on the currency markets. My concern is bond performance and the value of a buck is probably going up (and costing me if I stayed in I.) Hopefully I will be back up to 15.09 by COB.



Went to G and will buy whatever stock fund dips tomorrow – if not, I’ll just wait until next week.

Safetyguy wrote:

Hopefully I will be back up to 15.09 by COB.

Wow -- the I fund at 15.14 did better than my expectation. I now have the 10% that was in I shares parked in G.I will move it into whatever drops the most tomorrow. All the indicators for C, S, and I look good however -- C and S look stronger when looking at the W%R.

I am concerned that the Asian markets are open on Friday and the bond markets are supposed to be open for half of the day. There is a lot of time between noon EST on Thursday and COB on Monday. Does anyone have any thoughts about how to turn this into an advantage?

I also saw in another thread that someone put everything in G todayhoping for a drop on Thursday to move back in. This is a very interesting play. If things areup on Thursday (say 1%), it may be a smart move to go 100% G and wait for the next big down day (which could be coming next week.) I have been burned on this "TSP Day Trading" strategy but will consider such a move in the morning.