Thread: starfox182's account talk

Originally Posted by starfox182

After these rebounding days, I just IFT'd 100% I. I was 5G/70C/15S/10I and am currently -0.12% with this allocation. I think the I fund is farther away from its historic highs compared to the C and S funds. Thus, if the market crashed downwards, I would be able to B&H and thus get out of the woods faster than if I were in the same situation with being in the C or S funds.

If you are expecting or planning for a crash, why not go 100% G now while your shares have some value and buy I somewhere near what you think is the bottom of that crash?

I finally decided to pull out of 100% I and went 100% G. I'm hoping for a small gain today!

Originally Posted by starfox182

I finally decided to pull out of 100% I and went 100% G. I'm hoping for a small gain today!

How funny! I just went 100% I.

I am currently 100% I Fund and am holding. I bought it at 55 since 2 weeks earlier it was at 58. I figured I would make a quick few percent. Now it's at 47.36!!! Any ideas besides holding?

On another note, how does this strategy sound?

Assume you go 2/3 G and 1/3 risky fund:

If risky fund goes up you take the cash, if risk goes down you go 100% risk and take a loss. However, you then use the 1/3 G to cover the loss of the 1/3 risk and the other part of your 1/3 G is your profit. Example: You buy C at 1090 and it goes down to 1080. You take a small loss then go all in and ride C back up until it is at 1090 thus making a profit.

Only you can answer that question SF. Sell out and absorb the loss or hold tight. Painful either way.
Personally I'll stop the bleeding if and when I reach last years gains. But thats just me. I'm a ways out from retirement.

Originally Posted by WorkFE

Personally I'll stop the bleeding if and when I reach last years gains.

Thats a little deep but a good half of that I would feel comfortable with

I'm a total bear, just look at these charts: (I borrowed one for comparison as a generalization from tsptalks commentary on Apr 21st.) Everyone should be a bear, even if indices rise 25% more they have a much more substantial potential to drop farther. Thus shorting is a much better risk to reward in my opinion.

I edited it once to fix a chart...but is seems it won't let me edit again to fix one again. I found a better chart for the Wilshire 5000 (but it's coming up small on here...idk...) and R2K which I added.

The brave hoofhearted say go ahead and short this market - you'll end up working even after taphophobia. Your pain could be endless when you short a bull market because there ain't no visible top.

Was there a visible top at the end of 2007? I plan on using this bear market to make me some $$$$$
Don't be on the wrong side of this market! Proof that the bear market started in 2000:

http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-2...-2000-extended

http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composit...ession-channel

StarFox,

So, if you buy everything at an unsustainable .DotCom high then you are in a bear market. Oh my God, I've lost 12% in the last 11 years and 10 days.

But, if you start your bear market on September 30, 2002 you gained 70% in the last 8 years and 3 months.

And, if you initiate the scary graph on March 2, 2009 you are riding a bear market roller coaster for a gain of 99.5%.

Or, use your TSP account and go back to 1/3/2000 and look at the balance. I bet you will be pleasantly surprised. I was. (And, yes I know it includes contributions - but that is part of the deal too. Otherwise, I would have partaked in many more adult libations with nothing to show for it...)

Watch out for snake oil salesmen that pick market date ranges. Your investment range is forty years - not forty months or forty days.