CASTAWAY'S account talk

**Castaway** · 02-06-2010, 09:00 AM

Hi all. Decided to come back to TSP Talk after several years of absence. Finally retired, so I need something to do to keep me occupied

I was sitting in the I fund between Feb 08 until 5 FEB 2010 and in a matter of days, watched all my gains vanish before my eyes. Too much risk in the strengthening dollar against foreign currencies. I believe the dollar has awaken and will continue to strengthen over the coming months.

I jumped out of the I fund and in to the C (20%) and S (80%) in hopes of capitalizing on the slow economic recovery and hailing the close of January's economic indicators, or the "Blues News."

Look forward to some interesting market movements in the coming year and hopefully some nice gains.

GLTA!

**poolman** · 02-06-2010, 06:05 PM

Welcome back !

Are you coming back to TSP MB under the same name ?

**Castaway** · 02-09-2010, 08:03 AM

Thanks Poolman, no I am keeping the same name.

I have been analyzing the dollar trend since jumping out of the I Fund and now feel better about doing so. With continued Bear market action, the Dow closing under 10000 (1st time in 3 months), and increasing concerns over global market uncertainty, it appears that the EUR/USD will continue to lag.

For the Funds, I knew there would be further decline, but I did not expect such a disproportionate loss between the I/S/C Funds (the I Fund losses were only half of those felt by the S & I Funds).

I only wish I had waited one additional day before effecting my transfer! Ok Castaway, move on now.

The Street just published a good commentary analysis on recent movements that is worth the read, especially if your a die-hard I Funder.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/EURUSD....html?x=0&.v=1

As for returning to the I Fund: Too much risk to risk. In light of the new EFT rules, slingshot trading on currency movements is impossible and may adversely impact one's catching greater movements on other market fronts.

CASTAWAY

**nnuut** · 02-09-2010, 02:42 PM

Welcome back CASTAWAY, Best of luck!!
Retirement is good so far for me, every day is Saturday!
Norman

**tsptalk** · 02-09-2010, 06:09 PM

Welcome back Castaway! Congrats on your retirement!

**SkyPilot** · 02-09-2010, 06:53 PM

You have entered the Promised Land! Save a place for us

**Castaway** · 02-10-2010, 07:55 AM

Originally Posted by SkyPilot

You have entered the Promised Land! Save a place for us

Amen Amen! Never thought I would live past 20 either. Hang in there, its worth the wait.

**Bluehenge** · 02-10-2010, 09:23 AM

Just wondering...I see you live in Germany and wondered if that was a retirement decision or something else. (No need to answer if I'm too nosey). The way the economy is going makes me wonder if there are better countries to live in when retired.

**GUCHI** · 02-10-2010, 01:03 PM

Blue

I here Costa Rica is a very attreactive retirement area. A couple could live like a king and queen for about $ 45,000/ yr. beautiful weather and good infrastructure. I'm lookin !!! 4 yrs and counting !!!

**Castaway** · 02-10-2010, 03:17 PM

Originally Posted by Bluehenge

Just wondering...I see you live in Germany and wondered if that was a retirement decision or something else. (No need to answer if I'm too nosey). The way the economy is going makes me wonder if there are better countries to live in when retired.

Well, it is no mystery that with the horrible USD/EUR exchange rate, living in Europe is not easy, or as fun, as it was in the 1980's.

I live split-base, having married a German national with Euro family ties and our owning a small business back in the states (with my family ties). Its actually a major burden.

A friend of mine just retired and built his dream beach house in Thailand for around $60K. He says that he can live comfortably for $25K per year. I am not so akin to moving to Asia, however Cost Rica might be of interest.

**JTH** · 02-10-2010, 04:19 PM

I would think with the recent fall in the Euro, your American paycheck would stretch further?

**Castaway** · 02-12-2010, 09:46 AM

Originally Posted by JTH

I would think with the recent fall in the Euro, your American paycheck would stretch further?

JTH, Your correct to a degree. As you know, the dollar has been so devalued, a noticeable recovery may be a distant dream. Similarly, the inflationary climb of the Euro post-conversion tarnished the dollars true worth.

I use to laugh when Uncle Sam would lower the COLA for military members because of the "dollars strength." Over time, the dollar's strength never really held firm and only continued to fall at a disproportionate rate.

Most Germans I have spoke with don't think the dollar will ever reach a 1:1 exchange rate or better again in the near future, and that it will only continue to fall. We know that the US gov't wants to maintain a suppressed dollar for growth in exports, etc., yet when nearly everything in the US is imported, what difference does it make?! There is probably no one more that would love to see a stronger dollar again that me.