Thread: guyshultz's Account Talk

Originally Posted by guyschultz

I have done ok this last year. reading Tom, watching the 50 day avg and looking at the patterns of the S&P. But have missed a few good days by missing out on a couple of patterns that I saw after the fact. If there is any guys or gals out there who try to time the market with patterns and use the 50 avg. I would love to hear your thoughts

Welcome aboard

Within TSP it's difficult to trade on the short-term patterns and with more and more folks using Pattern recognition software, I believe in the future it may change the effectiveness.

As for the 50MA here is a blog 2010: One tool in the shed won't build a house I did on moving average crossovers. Another tidbit, under TSP's End of Day rules over the last 30 years the 50MA has a cumulative profit of 289.64% with a 9.65% yearly average. However, this study doesn't factor in the potential of exceeding the 2 IFT monthly limit. Also, a Buy & Hold strategy during this same period would have yielded a 1,168% profit.

Regardless of which methods you choose welcome to the forum, as always there is some great info here and much to be learned by everyone and I definitely include myself in that one.

Welcome guy!

Originally Posted by guyschultz

I would love to hear your thoughts

Well I'd say 'Chase the Bull' is something we could tell our friends.

I am one of the many 'Market Timers' who was humbled last year.



The ones who stayed towards the bottom wound up at the top. It's a lot harder 'timing' when you've got one move in and out a month. So I hope to be a little bolder this year.


The insane part of me is saying 'Wait for a drop' and then go in. The sane part is saying at least put a little in -- then more later... Usually the crazy side wins cause he seems more fun.

Wow premarket up over 5 yep in the middle of december I too bailed. I left 20% in the C fund took that all out a few days ago. And now I am stuck waiting for that Dip. OH THAT DIP. yes that Dip is me. when I get tired of watcking the market go up and jump in. just in time for the correction. the point is for this post is perhaps I and some others are trying too hard maybe we shouldn't try and get every wave but just try to get out of the way of the bear. Stay in till the top I think when the moving avg gets tested is when bulls and bears start. and like the dip I am at times I will try and wait for the next one before I try out this aproach.
good luck all