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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    The High Desert
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    Default Tsunami's Account Talk

    Hi All,

    Iíve been lurking on the boards and reading Tomís daily updates for a couple of years now. Iíve decided to add myself to the TSP Tracker for 2010, mostly to add a little extra pressure on myself to do better since Iím starting to see the light at the end of the retirement tunnel with my now 25+ years of faithful service. Iíve been trading stocks for about 10 years now with mixed results. For my retirement accounts I consider myself a swing trader, but a rather active one. As such you can add me to the list of folks that wishes the TSP Board would have given us one more trade each month, allowing two round trips in and out. I think my 2009 return suffered greatly by not having that ability. I try to catch the bigger waves using the input of a lot of sources including various newsletters Iíve tried over the years, and then put them all together for my own gut feel. Iím a believer in Elliott waves and market cycles, but only to a limited extent and you canít follow ďtechnicalsĒ blindly without looking at fundamentals too. Newsletters that Iíve tried and relegated to the trash bin include those from elliottwave.com, Hochberg in particular is just permanently too bearish and that doesnít work, even in this ďworst in historyĒ decade that weíre completing this week. I currently get Robert McHughís newsletter (technicalindicatorindex.com) and have learned to figure out when heís too bearish as well, such as right now (heís been calling for a top to this rally since July or so, but Iíve remained 100% in stocks most of that time). I seem to do really well trading every other year, then lousy in the alternate years. 2008 was a great year for me since I actually had a small gain for the year that most want to forget, beating the S&P 500 by about 42%. But then in 2009 my luck ran out and my timing was awful, resulting in a small loss for this year. Overall for the last five years Iíve beaten the indexís though, and my account sits very near its peak as we close out the wild year of 2009.

    My current outlook is that this rally will get more volatile in 2010, but will zig zag higher to an important top in early May, then a higher peak in late August of 2010, at which point it will be time for me to escape to the G/F funds. Iím guessing 2010 ends relatively flat overall, somewhere between a zero and 10% gain, but bigger TSP gains can be had with just a few well-timed moves. I change my mind frequently for short- term moves, but mid-term Iím bullish until August. I think the S&P will hit 1150 in January, at least 1200 by May, and could reach the low 1300ís by August if inflation perks up. I had a hard time coming up with a name for the board, but picked Tsunami since it represents my general outlook of another outgoing unusually deep tide of asset deflation starting next August (I think the markets will get whacked for a 38-62% dropÖpossible triggers are numerousÖ.rising interest rates, commercial real estate struggles, peak oil, federal and state/local debt, etc.), followed by a tidal wave of inflation that should float all boats except bonds starting perhaps around October of 2012, after more stimulus packages by the politicians trying to get reelected. Iím crossing my fingers that Government Sachs and the rest of government hasnít already screwed up things so bad that we end up with hyperinflation and the death of the dollar in its current form. For now Iím buying a little gold and silver, and trying to be more optimistic and hoping that we only get high inflation, maybe ďonlyĒ 15-20% or so, not much worse than the 1980 peak. In any case, Iím convinced the next decade will be difficult one to navigate and this board is a useful tool to help us through it.

    I donít plan to post too much, but I read a LOT, and will periodically post links to read when I feel they are worthwhile. One of the best is definitely financialsense.com, which is also office-friendly due to the lack of ads, and I make it habit to try to listen to Jim Puplavaís podcasts every weekend.


  2.  
  3. #2

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Now that's an introduction!

    Welcome, and I hope you do post. You seem to have a lot of knowledge to share.

  4.  
  5. #3

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Now that's an introduction!

    Welcome, and I hope you do post. You seem to have a lot of knowledge to share.

    Ditto, thanks for sharing your incite, it sounds like you've got a wide range of experience we can all learn from, so feel free to chime in and congrats on moving out from the lurking shadows.

  6.  
  7. #4

    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Missouri
    Posts
    8,619

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    You don't plan to write much!!! You better!!! That was a great intro and I look forward to any future comments. Welcome to the message board and good luck!!! +1

  8.  
  9. #5

    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Greenback, TN
    Posts
    186

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Tsunami.....as a fellow lurker, for the most part....I look forward to your posts!!

    Lobo

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  11. #6

    Thumbs up Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Welcome,
    The more, (the merrier? (or was that misery?)).
    That is in no way any sort of a slight to you for I am 100% behind all
    the ideals that were put forth in your lengthy intro.
    I don't know maybe it is me, but ever since a small note was made to the Intro page of non-frequent users of the MB, stood a very strong chance of elimination, the MB has grown by over 100 users.
    Tom may need to just trace IP addresses and start exercizing some moves that produce pain on members who are not using this site, the way to make $$$.
    They seem, to me, to have too much time on their hands and have some
    The IP address is one route but it would be easy to dodge that?
    DB

  12.  
  13. #7

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    8,636

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Welcome aboard. You'll fit in just fine
    May the force be with us.

  14.  
  15. #8

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Welcome Tsunami. Let's ride the waves in 2010!

  16.  
  17. #9

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
    Posts
    49,996

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Tsunami, welcome to the Message Board, stick around and join in!
    Best of luck
    NOrman
    Links Crude Settle $61.61 02-16-2018
    +$.34 Gain





  18.  
  19. #10

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
    Posts
    24,244

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I have nnuuts used pair of sticky pants I'd be glad to sell you if you have problems sitting still while the markets churn.

  20.  
  21. #11

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    I had a hard time coming up with a name for the board
    I had a hard time with the name thing too ... then one just hit me out of the blue!

    I definitely agree with your outlook. I see a lot of folks planning moves to the sidelines in January. I completely disagree. The risk of missing months of more upside is higher risk than absorbing a near term 5-10% correction that may or may not come.

    I can't remember all the stuff I have read to accurately support this feeling, but despite all the bullish sentiment, I still think there's a lot of fear out there to keep driving this market upward.

    I didn't follow my instincts in 2009 and didn't commit to my moves. This year will be different. I plan to stick with this for a while until I see something real that tells me otherwise.

    Welcome aboard!
    My posts are not advice. It's just my ideas from stuff I read, open to feedback from others. Be critical. Do your homework. // Currently: 50C/50I; 12-mo PIP: 12.05%.

  22.  
  23. #12

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    The High Desert
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    Default Tsunami's Links

    Wow, thanks for the warm welcome. Iíll pass on those Velcro pants though BT.

    Looks to me like the market is consolidating for the next move up, which I think should start by the middle of next week if not sooner. Iíll stick in the S fund to start the year.

    Thought Iíd also just post this list of links I like to frequently visit for now.
    http://www.financialsense.com/ Most know about it, itís my favorite. Last weekends inflation vs. deflation debate is a good one.
    http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Broadcast.html Erik King also does some great interviews posted here.
    https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/ My longest running subscription, I think to me itís been worth the price of about a dollar per newsletter. His weekend updates are over 50 pages long of charts and editorial comments. Heís better than the elliottwave.com guys at predicting.
    http://www.clifdroke.com/ My one year subscription is about to expire and I doubt Iíll renew, but heís actually been quite accurate. He turned bullish on about 3/12 and has been very bullish ever since. Heís a follower of cycles including ďKressĒ cycles invented by Sam Kress, and his own work.
    http://www.cyclesman.info/ Another cycles guy. Kinda hard to get much use out of him except for his big picture. Heís a Dow Theory guy that also has his own cycle indicators.
    http://www.caseyresearch.com/ Iím lucky to be grandfathered in at very low subscription prices to several of their newsletters. Theyíre really good in the mining and energy areas.
    http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/ChartSpotMenu.html Carl is pretty good I think, these columns are usually posted on financialsens.com also.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=qqqq,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pc20!c50][vc60][iUk14!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G I always start with this link when I want to get a detailed chart to make buy/sell decisions for individual stocks. Plug in ďEVEPĒ in the symbol box, Iím loving that one and it pays 11.6% dividends on top of those great gains as oil goes up.
    http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX People know that one, I always check it to get a read on how it might affect stocks and gold/silver. I think the dollar will continue rallying up to the 80 area, which was wave 4 of that 5 wave move down since March 2009 peak, and is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level. Some think it will keep going and going after that, I donít think so, but that will be a key in what the market does in 2010.
    http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/ Another one most people should have bookmarked.
    http://www.amanita.at/FAQ/FragenzumBradley-Siderograph/Bradley-Siderograph/ Probably useless, but I still take a peak once in a while. 3/1 and 8/10 are supposed to be the big turns for 2010.
    http://blog.rebeltraders.net/ I frequently watch his videos (ďMarket Update VideosĒ link). This guy is permanently bearish it seems, but heís entertaining for sure.
    http://www.tickerville.com/ Not sure if Poolman posts these, I like his videos.
    http://www.scribd.com/doc/22417671/GOLD-5000-11-11-09 Martin Armstrong is another interesting character to read, not accurate, but entertaining. Heís been very prolific lately typing away from his prison cell.
    http://washingtonstate.rivals.com/ Any other Cougars out there? Go Cougs! Thank goodness football season is over.
    http://www.allposters.com/gallery.asp?aid=85097&apnum=320272&LinkTypeID=1&Po sterTypeID=1&DestType=7&Referrer%20=http://www.artcyclopedia.com/artists/beard_william_holbrook.html I like that print, think Iíll get one for my office.

    Whew, thatís enough.

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