Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Awesome article on seasonality Tsunami, going to work that into my adjustments.

A really good series of presentations by Jim and Chris Puplava...

https://www.financialsense.com/inves...-1-jim-puplava

https://www.financialsense.com/inves...-chris-puplava

https://www.financialsense.com/inves...-3-jim-puplava

Some takeaways...returns are really going to be awful for the next decade for passive investors, near zero...you need to have a position in emerging markets (India is the best in my opinion) to have any chance at decent returns...active investing will do better than passive buy-and-hold...the next bear market is not far off.

Gunnar's targets for mid-January remain right on track...

03122017

Dow 25,440 is just 1.5% away
Nasdaq-100 6725 is just 2.1% away
IWM 58.05 is just 2.3% away

I'm guessing we get a spike up early Friday with another great jobs report, then a small wave 4 pullback for a day or two, then another rally to those targets by mid-January. There's no reason to suspect otherwise. After the January top comes a bigger pullback, but nothing serious...maybe trees to grow to the sky?

The Fed's rarely stated fourth policy goal, to ensure the stock market never goes down, is going very well...so far...
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...12451523829760

S&P 500 to 3000 this year...easy! 2019 worries me though.
https://northmantrader.com/2018/01/0...arket-outlook/

Getting closer to a long-term top per this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01928932408&a=2 31284346&r=1443304934270&cmd=print

Another chart to watch for that long-term top, maybe in 2019?
http://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880709107&a=44 2365228&listNum=91

I can't quite make out your latest avatar there, Tsunami. To my old eyes it looks like a pile of money going up in flames. That's definitely a Franklin there in the foreground.

that avatar is a Pacific coastline waiting for the next tsunami.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

The Fed's rarely stated fourth policy goal...

Tsunami: Your post yesterday with NorthmanTrader link & charts were great; Thanks for sharing! Scary times will come... I agree... getting close(r) but not just yet it seems.

Originally Posted by Cactus

I can't quite make out your latest avatar there, Tsunami. To my old eyes it looks like a pile of money going up in flames. That's definitely a Franklin there in the foreground.

Yep, it's a tsunami of money, I thought that was very fitting for what's happening lately. The 2nd image here:

https://www.google.com/search?q=a+ts...w=1269&bih=611

Thanks for the link, Tsunami. My old eyes have an easier time with most of those images.

This euphoric/manic market had me looking back at history. The last time even close to this craziness was back in 1995 and into 1996:
https://www.financialsense.com/fs-st...se-bull-market

So, looking at a long term monthly chart how did that period look?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24...=668&cmd=print
Note that by June 1st 1996 the RSI had reached an extreme level of 87. What happened next?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24...=668&cmd=print
The month of July 1996 saw a greater that 10% drop...then the relentless baby boomer fed bull market resumed.

How does this compare to now? The RSI has just hit that same level of 87. Hmm.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24...=668&cmd=print

So that's probably what should happen, but will the world's governments let it happen?

An now the Baby Boomers are starting to retire