Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Dow 20K

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPwrodxghrw

Halftime...10-3...c'mon Hawks grind it out!

A variety of stuff I read today, the new year predictions are always fun...

Harry Dent is actually bullish!...psyche, only for a few months...
2017 Outlook: A Volatile Year from All Angles | Economy and Markets

Dr. Ed's Blog: Who’s Afraid of the Big Bad Wolf?

Weekly Market Summary - The Fat Pitch - Commentaries - Advisor Perspectives

Cowan's Real-Time Market Calls

Northy is still gloomy...
https://northmantrader.com/2017/01/0...arket-outlook/

And I saved the best for last, sweet deal, this grove is just south of where we plan to retire in two years...
http://www.halegroves.comJ933

It's been increasingly quiet here on the account talk threads. I wonder if there's anything that can be read into that. Complacency?

I read Gunner's latest confusing missive over the weekend, and just noticed that the Nasdaq hit his 5055-65 target for a high today and now the whole market is threatening to roll over, S&P about to go red. Hmm.
08012017

"afterwards a sharp price correction of a 7% to 10% is supposed to start". Hmm.

I just figured that most people had given up and gone over to the premium services and their associated threads.

I've read a number of guys...all saying that this year is going to be a great year for equities because of the changes favorable to business that will come from having a Republican Congress and a Republican President. However, then I look at this chart based on the history of the market and I'm not so sure...I think keeping an eye on technical factors and trend indicators is going to be doubly important this year. Last year we were expecting a bear and we got a bull. Now everyone is expecting a bull but history says bear. This stuff is never easy..

17 Year Cycle.jpg

FS

Nice Chart! Thanks!

Originally Posted by Tsunami

It's been increasingly quiet here on the account talk threads. I wonder if there's anything that can be read into that. Complacency?

I haven't a clue--it could be uncertainty, awaiting earning season results, new presidency, hung over from the holidays or something else

Originally Posted by Tsunami

It's been increasingly quiet here on the account talk threads. I wonder if there's anything that can be read into that. Complacency?

I think part of the answer is that folks that used to share their strategies are no longer posting (JTH, Birchtree, etc.) as well as folks just growing weary of the time and effort it takes to research and then convey their findings to the rest of us. That coupled with the various video threads as well as all the restricted threads makes it very quiet indeed. Thank goodness there are still a few folks willing to throw their two cents out there. Mr. John Ross, clester, Bquat and yourself spring to mind.

Nenner is predicting that "the bottom will fall" out of the market in the Fall of 2017 and the Dow will fall to 5,000 by 2020:
Charles Nenner-2017 Prediction-Global War Cycle Coming into Danger Zone | Greg Hunter

...and the long-term averages for the 7th year of decades seems to agree that's possible:
Almanac Trader

Maybe I'll keep an eye on that, and pay more attention starting in August.

7th Years of Decades doesn't look good. Interesting study on presidential cycle indicates that most major market declines happen in the 1st two years of a presidential term: The Four-Year U.S. Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market | Graziadio Business Review | Graziadio School of Business and Management | Pepperdine University

Something to ponder and plan ahead for for those nearing retirement or already retired...

According to a Barron's article, "a typical retirement portfolio of 60% stocks/40% bonds has a ZERO percent probability of achieving a 5% return over the next 10 years....the reality is to expect a return of 2% to 3%."

Youch! Us Baby Boomers had it good through the 80s and 90s...but paybacks are Hell as they say. The high returns of the past come at a big cost.

The Next 10 Years: High Risk for Boomers | James J Puplava CFP | FINANCIAL SENSE