Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Looks like Jack nailed the call today....peaked out at 1890 just as predicted, then down it goes to another low...
Channels and Patterns
...or, maybe today's top was already wave A up, now in B down, with C up coming next. No way to know, as usual, but fun to guess.

Haven't heard any talk about next week's Fed meeting. That could start making the market nervous soon.

For DeMark fans, sounds like 1850 is an important line in the sand for a weekly close this Friday...

S&P 500 DeMark Counts And Price Levels Loom Large | See It Market

I think closing below 1850 would also tilt the odds that this is a wave 5 down (likely bottoming early next week, maybe around 1775ish, but too many gurus are predicting that now, making it more unlikely) rather than a wave B down, with wave C up ready to blast off to the upper 1900s any time now. Even more gurus are predicting that though...

That's what I'm reading as well TS. Here are two comments made by the traders that caught my attention this morning:

1st Comment:
ST bottom should be in today. Around 1866ish SPX.
In around 4 trading days, market should rocket 90 points to about 1957. then remain around that level for 4 weeks.
SPX touching 1854 today, all gets invalidated.

2nd Comment:
The canary in the coal mine is dying, who’s paying attention? The largest bank in Europe and the largest derivatives book in the world –
sweet. Everyone should have DB & CS on their screens, like in 2008 when we were all watching GS, LEH & MER.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/PC829iGm/

Don’t forget about this train wreck either, canary #2. Below the 2009 lows, approaching the 2011 lows and 2002 lows.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Zd0svNou/

My comment: What's going on with the banks? I'm reading that there is a performance problem from several different website bloggers. But no one is identifying a reason. My guesses are energy loan defaults and hedge fund defaults? Wish I understood the finance world better.

FS

Great post FS, and those charts are indeed ominous.

My 2 cents for today....the overnight e-mini futures hit about 1851. Normally overnight lows are revisited during the day session, so I expect the opening rally attempt to be sold yet again and at some point today that overnight low will be hit, which corresponds to around 1859 in the $SPX cash, almost a 1% drop. One percent per day until Monday would get the S&P down to that 1775 area...and if it matters after two years, there is that tiny gap to be filled at 1773 from Feb 6th 2014 which Tom point out.

Nice start Broncos! 3-0

This sounds promising, there's nothing to fear but fear itself, time for a 7-10% rally:
The Fat Pitch: Weekly Market Summary

I haven't posted some good doom and gloom in a while, here's a good one...."it's not too late to panic...this is nothing like 2008...it's going to be much worse"...

Bert Dohmen Is Uber-Bearish and Here's Why | FS Staff | FINANCIAL SENSE

I've tried twice this year to time a rally and failed. I've only been in the market for four days this year and am down 2%. Time to sit back and be more patient for a major low.

Oh, and yesterday ended a lunar green phase period. During that period the F fund was way up while the stock funds were waaaaay down. I wonder what this lunar red period starting today will bring. One of my gurus is predicting the Shanghai index will drop to 2000 by the end of Feb, a 27% drop. I'm OK just watching for a while.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Oh, and yesterday ended a lunar green phase period. During that period the F fund was way up while the stock funds were waaaaay down. I wonder what this lunar red period starting today will bring. One of my gurus is predicting the Shanghai index will drop to 2000 by the end of Feb, a 27% drop. I'm OK just watching for a while.

I've got the C Fund finishing minus 2.65% and the S Fund minus 5.28% for this lunar green period. yuck! I was hoping the ship had righted itself as our last lunar red period was negative as it should be, but alas the last 3 periods (2 green and 1 red) have all been negative. My guess is this new lunar red period will be negative as well, but who knows anymore.

There's a reason DeMark's subscription fees are so expensive, so I pay attention to any predictions he makes.

With S&P now sitting at about 1925, the final hour will be important. If it closes below the close 4 days ago (1926.82 last Wednesday), then he says "the decline is going to be sharp".

DeMark Sees Risk of S&P 500 Top Should Stocks Fade This Week - Bloomberg Business

Originally Posted by Tsunami

There's a reason DeMark's subscription fees are so expensive, so I pay attention to any predictions he makes.

With S&P now sitting at about 1925, the final hour will be important. If it closes below the close 4 days ago (1926.82 last Wednesday), then he says "the decline is going to be sharp".

DeMark Sees Risk of S&P 500 Top Should Stocks Fade This Week - Bloomberg Business

Well, it did. I hope the decline last until 1 March so I can catch the rally.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

There's a reason DeMark's subscription fees are so expensive, so I pay attention to any predictions he makes.

With S&P now sitting at about 1925, the final hour will be important. If it closes below the close 4 days ago (1926.82 last Wednesday), then he says "the decline is going to be sharp".

DeMark Sees Risk of S&P 500 Top Should Stocks Fade This Week - Bloomberg Business

Tsunami,

Thanks for this article. I liked the nature and the predictive attempt of DeMark's article. If this is a given, and the SPX has 3 more trading days to go until it reaches "trend exhaustion", then we should rally until next Friday. Is this correct?

Originally Posted by airlift

Tsunami,

Thanks for this article. I liked the nature and the predictive attempt of DeMark's article. If this is a given, and the SPX has 3 more trading days to go until it reaches "trend exhaustion", then we should rally until next Friday. Is this correct?

That's not how I read it. It closed below 1926.82 (the close 4 days ago), so I think the trend can reverse straight down now...but I'm no DeMark expert...and like any other guru, he's wrong a lot. Breaking below 1880 or so with some gusto would be a strong sign we're headed straight down to the 1700s, and beyond that eventually.

And whaddaya know, now we're in a position per that chart to head straight down to the early April low that Tom McClellan predicted many months ago.
His chart has worked pretty darn well...
Eurodollar COT Says Ugly Drop Is Still Ahead of Us - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial
So will we see a bottom near April 5th? Time will tell.