Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

FS - Starting out the new year in Hawaii sounds like a great time. We spent 2 weeks there (3 islands) last May and had a great time....
Maui pics - https://goo.gl/photos/uzfskhxCERcJRARu6
Hawaii pics - https://goo.gl/photos/yiGqKcrbyjnBSvvr5
hmm, hope I don't regret posting those...although I have to say, we spent 5 days at Waikiki and it has become just waaay too crowded and for the first time I felt awfully "old" there, not many grey beards to be seen there LOL.

The S&P got within just a couple points of breaking that first crucial level of 2044, and with under 5 hours to go it doesn't look good for a positive year for the benchmark S&P 500... so far the drop looks like 3 waves down though, so I can't conclude yet that it's downhill from here (and breaking the 2005 low will be much more important for the bull/bear battle). I closed out a quick QQQ put trade for a nice gain this morning and (if the current little bounce stalls out around 2055, in which case it would look like a wave 4, then we get another drop that looks like a wave 5 that breaks 2044.2) will wait for a wave 2 bounce next week to reload on those. I think 2016 will be a difficult one to make money and for the TSP I'll be spending a lot of time in the G fund just looking for rallies...the focus instead will be on my trading account.

FWIW, statistically, the stage is set for a nice up year in 2016...

https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/...ke-what-i-see/

Originally Posted by Tsunami

FWIW, statistically, the stage is set for a nice up year in 2016...

https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/...ke-what-i-see/

"Hmm, maybe…, but let’s think twice and first ask: when was the last time anybody made money by listening to Goldman Sachs or Mrs Lagarde?" - Great line!

i don't want this to come off sounding wrong or anything, but does your wife have a sister?

that is obviously one confident, competent, content woman you got there. and you ain't holding up half bad yourself neither. that is pretty cool to see folks have something nice for themselves and enjoying life. pretty dang rare actually, good for you guys. you should probably be thanking her, a lot.

happy new year, and happy trading.

Originally Posted by burrocrat

i don't want this to come off sounding wrong or anything, but does your wife have a sister?

that is obviously one confident, competent, content woman you got there. and you ain't holding up half bad yourself neither. that is pretty cool to see folks have something nice for themselves and enjoying life. pretty dang rare actually, good for you guys. you should probably be thanking her, a lot.

happy new year, and happy trading.

LOL...thanks Burro, I just read your post to her and she had a good laugh...yep, she has good genes (she in her 50s like me) but sorry, no sisters LOL....and you're very right in her assessment of her...in 2014/2015 she added being Ms. Home Improvement to her resume, and with almost no help from me she completely remodeled all three of our bathrooms! She's also the funniest person I know, and back in her Navy days consistently bowled about 190....best of all she puts up with me. I'm a lucky guy to have had her for 20+ years now...since you liked those so much here's the link to our Colorado road trip in September...the dog is her Bouvier des Flandres...a dog that never barks, never destroys anything, doesn't shed, and does anything you ask...I have two perfect girls!

https://goo.gl/photos/tx9a4NwoiY5b2uV96

Ah, the TSP has posted the 12/31 share prices, time to finalize the numbers for 2015.

Beautiful places, I've got to go there before I Kick Off I'm putting them on my Bucket list. Happy New Year Tsunami!

OK, drum roll....here are the final 2015 results for the various systems I've developed over the last few years and am now tracking. I've probably put a thousand hours into this by now. The summary table below includes both the 2015 results, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of each system for the last 12 years. The bull/bear systems are identical to the Hybrid systems except for my attempt to use simple TA (RSI and MACD on a monthly chart) to time bull/bear markets. When it goes under bear system rules that system just stays in the G fund, and for as much as the first two years of a bull market signal it just stays in the S fund...so those two systems lagged this year since they went into bear mode (stay in the G fund until the bear market is over) back in mid-July when my bear rules triggered (what remains to be proven is if we're really in a bear market right now, so far the market refuses to roll over). I've also updated my spreadsheet (a tedious process!) to put in all the trade dates for each system through 2016, and eventually plan to do that at least 30 years into the future so my beautiful wife could continue to make the IFTs for decades into the future and become a multi-millionaire without me. My plan is to stick with the bull/bear system using the G fund going forward in 2016 and in future bear markets in the 2020s...all the systems did better with the F fund over the last 12 years, but I think that tide is turning (at least as long as the Fed insists on raising rates, I'll switch to the bull/bear F fund system if the economy/markets forces them to stop)....so without further ado....

2015 Results.JPG

Markets around the world are poised for a big move in 2016...but which way?
GLOBAL INFLECTION POINT |

Tis the time of year for predictions, I love this one....

"Donald Trump will punch someone in the face on live television and people will love it"
https://www.facebook.com/ibankcoin/p...41695929205814

Originally Posted by Tsunami

OK, drum roll....here are the final 2015 results for the various systems I've developed over the last few years and am now tracking. I've probably put a thousand hours into this by now. The summary table below includes both the 2015 results, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of each system for the last 12 years. The bull/bear systems are identical to the Hybrid systems except for my attempt to use simple TA (RSI and MACD on a monthly chart) to time bull/bear markets. When it goes under bear system rules that system just stays in the G fund, and for as much as the first two years of a bull market signal it just stays in the S fund...so those two systems lagged this year since they went into bear mode (stay in the G fund until the bear market is over) back in mid-July when my bear rules triggered (what remains to be proven is if we're really in a bear market right now, so far the market refuses to roll over). I've also updated my spreadsheet (a tedious process!) to put in all the trade dates for each system through 2016, and eventually plan to do that at least 30 years into the future so my beautiful wife could continue to make the IFTs for decades into the future and become a multi-millionaire without me. My plan is to stick with the bull/bear system using the G fund going forward in 2016 and in future bear markets in the 2020s...all the systems did better with the F fund over the last 12 years, but I think that tide is turning (at least as long as the Fed insists on raising rates, I'll switch to the bull/bear F fund system if the economy/markets forces them to stop)....so without further ado....

2015 Results.JPG

Can you point me in the right direction for unlocking the secrets of the Basic Seasonal Strategies?

Originally Posted by OBGibby

Can you point me in the right direction for unlocking the secrets of the Basic Seasonal Strategies?

Sure, the basic system is just that, very basic. It looks like this, with all the trades placed on the last day of the month...

Jan/Feb - S fund
Mar/Apr/May - C fund (or use the I fund in April since the I fund has been stronger than C or S during that month for many years)
June - G or F fund
July - I fund (or C)
Aug/Sept - G or F
Oct/Nov - C
Dec - S

For the "enhanced" system, rather than blindly making the moves on the last day of the month I used seasonality charts/websites to adjust the dates....e.g., per the equityclock.com main page I move from C to S on 11/23, and then S back to C on March 4th. Just that tiny move, and several others, make a big improvement. The "hybrid" system then gets quite weird to me since it incorporates the lunar phases during the summer months, but it seems to work pretty consistently...then my bull/bear system improves even further by just avoiding stocks altogether during bear markets...which is the holy grail and pretty much impossible to do, but I'm trying. It's still a work in progress and is just my own system but that sums it up. Anybody could do it with a spreadsheet and lots and lots of time playing with the possibilities.

Mr T: Thx for explaining to OBG's question more about your TSP IFT Strategies.
FYI: Just looking at charts this weekend I was thinking S&P situations looked similar to late parts of last Jan & March; if so, thought we might expect a short-term bottom in 1st 3-to-6 trade-days of 2016 followed by 2%-to-3% gains over anywhere from 1-to-3 weeks, followed by another drop. Today's news and morning cliff-fall (China and Iran-Saudi issues) was putting a blanket on that comparison; yet markets closed off the lows, so maybe the scenario is still in play... will watch closely this week.

BTW, How bout them HAWKS! Must have been a very enjoyable game assuming you made it there. Your thought it might be a slaughter was correct, just to the upside rather than down (like predictions about the markets sometimes). I too was wary and so glad they seem to be ramping-up for the playoffs, as long as they don't overlook the Vikings and assume next week's game will go like their earlier pounding of that team this season.
Finally, sorry you couldn't be at the Sun Bowl; your mention of Desert Snows in NM reminded me of my young years growing up in Albuquerque - always thought the snow in NM & AZ deserts was so peaceful/beautiful; then I saw all those blizzard pix per your link & that was altogether more hazardous and messy. Thx too for sharing the beautiful HI and COLO pix; again these brought back fond memories of such sights and experiences.