Page 91 of 163 FirstFirst ... 41818990919293101141 ... LastLast
Results 1,081 to 1,092 of 1946

Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1081

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Thanks FS - Yes, WSU brought the Pullman weather with them and held on just barely for the win. Not pretty, but we'll take it. The returning players (including WR Gabe Marks, 104 receptions this year and he announced he will not go pro and will instead return next year) are already talking Rose Bowl for next year, unfinished business they're saying. I'm glad I made the right call to not go down to El Paso, and I'm looking forward to the upcoming New Year's weekend in Phoenix to visit family and watch my Seahawks get slaughtered by Arizona, but at least we'll be out of this sub-freezing weather we're getting all this week over here. I shoveled snow yesterday for only the 2nd time in my life LOL.

    The markets are not looking good today, obviously, but this could just be a wave 2 pullback, correcting last week's big gain. I think the first week of next year will determine right away whether 2016 will good or bad for bulls. A drop back below 1993 next week would likely be the death blow for the bulls. Meanwhile I'm wrapping up my 3rd worst TSP year ever since 1991. Ugh. I really need to start using one of my trading strategies!!! Any one of them would have been better than my lousy returns. I've been working on a huge spreadsheet the last few days/weeks comparing fourteen different strategies...over 3000 rows of data...(thank goodness you can just download share prices since 2003 from tsp.gov) and the winning strategy returned an amazing ~20% compound annual growth rate over the last 12 years, wow. I'll call it my Bull/Bear Hybrid Enhanced Lunatic System... LOL...it puts everything together, including a very simple method of deciding if the market is in a bull or bear market (which worked for the last two bear markets, but will it work again?, who knows)... it's currently under "bear market rules", meaning just stay in the G (or F, which has beaten the G fund overall for the last 12 years) fund until the monthly MACD and RSI charts give bull market buy signals....if the S&P breaks 2135 next month I'll have to throw that one out the window though....and maybe incorporate a "rabbit out of the hat" indicator.

  2.  
  3. #1082

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    3,024

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I'm hoping for the bounce at 2040 SPX. We haven't had our rally yet!!!! 3000 rows of data TS? Cripes, I have a hard time finding my car keys...

    I hear you on 1993. I've been there for a while now. Anyways, with respect to the market, I've learned "what will be will be"...

    All the best in 2016!

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  4.  
  5. #1083

    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Sometimes Maryland, Sometimes Texas
    Posts
    3,504

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Well yesterday was the last day of the Lunar Red Period. C Fund gained 2.29% and the S Fund gained 2.15%.

    It seems the trend of being positive during the red periods and negative during the green periods continues.
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

  6.  
  7. #1084

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Hampton Roads, VA
    Posts
    3,729

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    Well yesterday was the last day of the Lunar Red Period. C Fund gained 2.29% and the S Fund gained 2.15%.

    It seems the trend of being positive during the red periods and negative during the green periods continues.
    Is this where the pattern changes?
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

  8.  
  9. #1085

    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Sometimes Maryland, Sometimes Texas
    Posts
    3,504

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    Is this where the pattern changes?
    This trend actually started with the red period that began 10/16/15 and has remained intact ever since. With that said, if the trend is to continue the current green period we just entered yesterday should be negative as market direction reverses on the full and new moon cycles. Eventually, the trend will correct itself, but until then why not take advantage. I must say, being reversed for two and a half months is a pretty impressive trend.
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

  10.  
  11. #1086

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    3,024

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Oil should take us down today WS. My guess is between 2044-2068. Then I think we rally to 2085. I'm not holding out for higher than 2100 any longer. Once we get headed to 2085 I will exit until I see an entry point in 2016.

    Best to you and all my TSP friends in in 2016!

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  12.  
  13. #1087

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Oil should take us down today WS. My guess is between 2044-2068. Then I think we rally to 2085. I'm not holding out for higher than 2100 any longer. Once we get headed to 2085 I will exit until I see an entry point in 2016.
    Is that the year 2016 or the S&P500 at 2016.

    Sorry, I couldn't resist.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  14.  
  15. #1088

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Looks like the final drama for 2015 will be whether "they" can keep the S&P green for 2015. It closed at 2058.90 last year...currently sitting only about a dozen points above that.

    I'll be attempting to follow one of my seasonal strategies in 2016....one that incorporates seasonal tendencies, with a dash of the lunar phases thrown in...and a simple TA approach to decide if we're in a bull or bear market...right now that has me under bear market rules, so unless things change quickly early in 2016 (if there's a strong surge higher above 2135) I'll be hibernating in the G fund for much of the year...but I'm sure I won't be able to resist using the Elliott Waves to try to time some rallies. The first of those rallies could start around Jan 19th unless the market explodes higher right out of the gate....

    https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/...e-for-january/

    Interesting interview of Eric Hadik, he's often right and he's expecting the market to break down soon....
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlh2zpshz1w

    Meanwhile it would seem that the oversold energy and commodity sector is ready to support a big move up in 2016. Wheat (WEAT) for example sure looks like it's bottoming to me.

    Over the last 3 days I see a very clear 5 waves up, and now a small 5 waves down, which could be wave A of a small A-B-C corrective wave that could bottom late today or tomorrow around 2060...or it could be the very first impulse wave down of the re-emerging bear market. As always, the market keeps us guessing.

    Best wishes for everyone in 2016!


  16.  
  17. #1089

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Yep, this could be another 2011 where the S&P500 opened and closed the year at the same price.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%


  18.  
  19. #1090

    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Washington State
    Posts
    185

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Thx again for your Posts TS; I pay a lot of attention and try to learn from your sharing & that of Tom and so many others on this Forum! Glad to see you have your "Sword-swinging WSU Pirate Swagger" moniker on again (so thankful to win Sun Bowl and be 9-4 for the year)... thx for representing us there! Now, go Hawks!
    Yes, a flat year I'm conservative with TSP erring on trying not to lose much; moved half my chips to G-fund COB yesterday & end up with a GAIN (it appears) for the year (wopping +0.5%)... and just starting to attempt some swing-trading in Robinhood using Stockcharts "above the Green line" & other indicators. I wish you and all TSP-Talkers a successful Happy New Year.

  20.  
  21. #1091

    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Sometimes Maryland, Sometimes Texas
    Posts
    3,504

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Well I'm hoping the market explodes right out of the gate. I changed my allocation today to 45% C Fund, 40% S Fund and 15% I Fund. I'm looking for a quick explosion with an exit sometime early next week. Then I'll sit in the G Fund and wait for the 19th.

    Have a Happy New Year!
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

  22.  
  23. #1092

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    FAAM, thanks...the blizzard in New Mexico kept my wife and I from going to the game...
    https://www.google.com/search?q=new+...w=1366&bih=620

    ...so now I have two unused Sun Bowl tickets to put in my scrapbook next to two unused 2003 Rose Bowl tickets (I went to that game, and the '98 Rose Bowl, but I won two extra tickets in a contest that I couldn't even give away in '03)...I see that Leach signed a contract extension through 2020, and the returning players say they're on a mission to go to and win the Rose Bowl next year, I love that attitude.....

    ESPN: The best reasoning we've heard for going on fourth down...

    "To overcome the disappointment of not making it on third down." -- Washington State coach Mike Leach


    I'm looking forward to going to the Seahawks game Sunday, even though it will likely be a slaughter.

    As for the market, now I see that perfect ABC correction finished at today's close...or, a wave 3 down is underway....tomorrow may not be decisive due to low volume, but I think next week the market will make it clear if the bulls or bears will rule in 2016....

    If small caps are leading the way, it doesn't look good for bulls...

    "Enjoy the likely Santa Claus Rally in the very short term, but prepare for a rough new year."

    S&P 600 ETF (IJR) Moves to Official Bear Market
    Last edited by Tsunami; 12-30-2015 at 07:04 PM.

  24.  
Page 91 of 163 FirstFirst ... 41818990919293101141 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes