Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Things are coming to a head. Gold has hit a new low and is in a final panic sell-off http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p98053460295
… silver is 17 cents away from a new low, and both show completed wave structures that could bottom any day (and miners are now hitting a new low, showing positive divergence which validates that they are a great buy right now...I like PVG, FSM and FNV among others).

“Captain Hook” has been predicting for a loooong time that inflation would take off once the $INDU:$XAU ratio reached 400…then within a few months, if not much sooner, gold would take off and stocks would plunge…and today it finally got there to that ratio of 400 in a final blow off and perfect 5 waves up from the low four years ago when gold/commodities peaked:
http://news.goldseek.com/CaptainHook/1447704934.php
(he wrote that on 10/30, and note the interesting link regarding B of A’s prediction that the China bond bubble will implode next year, that will be partof next year’s troubles)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24XAU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27629 488611

Commodities are finally poised for a massive reversal. Copper is in a final free fall...WEAT is another example I like and I'll grab a bushel or two in my IRA within a week……cattle is another…time to buy a side of beef for the freezer and take the sweetie out for a nice steak dinner.

The stock index’s sit on the cliff edge tonight and I’m not so sure of that one final rally to new highs. For today at least, I’m feeling just fine sitting in G.

The 2011 analogy makes no sense..... but the 1937 analogy sure does and fits perfectly with Tom McClellan's predicted early April bottom...which would then be followed by a slightly lower wave 5 bottom next June...and at ~1400 that would be a painful but normal 50% bear market. I don't see any reason why this can't happen, especially if the Fed raises rates next month. The quarter-percent is irrelevant to the economy, but the psychological damage could kick off the decline....

Market Analogs: Are We Heading Toward 2011 Or 1937? | investing.com

The Fed sure has a lot of catching up to do in order to get where the market is telling them to go with rates...

TMUBMUSD02Y Bond Quote - U.S. 2 Year Treasury Note Bond Price Today (TMUBMUSD02Y:TPI) - MarketWatch

2-Year T-Note Shows Path For FOMC - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

Interesting article TS. And that is quite a spread. The Fed is a very interesting organization operating under a charter with general oversight by Congress, no appropriations, and expected to operate as an independent entity. I can see McClellan's point where poor fed policy has impacted economic booms and caused a few "bubbles". However, except for instances of extreme political pressure, I don't see them being beholden or aligned to Wall Street. Still McClellan's points are based on common sense and would seem to be the way things should work. Crazy world we live in.

Right now I'm trying to determine when we greet Mr. Bear. There are other forums that are saying the Russell is already in a bear market hence the flight to SPX and Dow. The SPX has had a lot of choppy sideways action this week and makes me wonder where its headed. I was hoping for a Santa rally but don't have a feel for whether SPX pulls back before that occurs or whether we see a quick skyrocket rally to 2170....if we make it that high. It feels like if we're going to have a Santa rally, we at least need to see a few elves. Based on looking at todays charts the SPX looks ready to pullback to somewhere in the 2070 area tomorrow where it hits support. Tomorrow is Options Expiration day so it will be interesting to see how that plays out.

All the best to you guys in your investing.

FS

This is getting really extreme. The S&P is now at the Fibonacci 78% retrace of the early November decline. Today or Monday is the time for the bears to wake up, otherwise go back to hibernating...

fedspeak.JPG

Shhhhhhh!! Let the sleeping bears lie!

Originally Posted by Tsunami

This is getting really extreme. The S&P is now at the Fibonacci 78% retrace of the early November decline. Today or Monday is the time for the bears to wake up, otherwise go back to hibernating...

fedspeak.JPG

If I have my dates correct I'm showing the C Fund +3.31% and the S Fund +2.45% for this current lunar red period.

With that said, we are still inverted, red periods being positive and green periods being negative. Here's hoping the uptrend continues into next week. The next full moon comes in on November 25th and if the inverted trend continues, (green being negative and red being positive) we should be set nicely for the Santa Claus rally...Woohoo

Working through some resistance here...
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions....tancenov24.jpg
...but I think it will and there's a small inverse H&S that will take it on up to the recent 2116 high, then a larger H&S that targets the upper 2100s...probably by the time the Force arrives on 12/18. May the Force be with the bulls! (and the Warriors too, I'm a Warrior fan thanks to ex-Coug Klay Thompson...and Go Cougs!... beat the Fuskies in the Apple Cup this Friday!!)

Looks like that resistance is breaking down right now...Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Turkey.jpg

Not an easy read (did Yoda edit this?), but this analysis of the DAX backs up my current thoughts of a peak near the Fed's rate hike in mid-December, followed by a big drop down to a low in the April to June 2016 timeframe....

22112015

As for today, looks like another drop down to about 2085 might be needed to finish the right shoulder of the inverse H&S over the last four days...which can be visualized in chart 52 in the link below... all of this points to me jumping back in on December 1st to grab whatever is left of the rally... hopefully enough for me to finish ahead of the G fund for the year LOL...

Above the Green Line - Nov 25, 2015 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Not an easy read (did Yoda edit this?), but this analysis of the DAX backs up my current thoughts of a peak near the Fed's rate hike in mid-December, followed by a big drop down to a low in the April to June 2016 timeframe....

22112015

As for today, looks like another drop down to about 2085 might be needed to finish the right shoulder of the inverse H&S over the last four days...which can be visualized in chart 52 in the link below... all of this points to me jumping back in on December 1st to grab whatever is left of the rally... hopefully enough for me to finish ahead of the G fund for the year LOL...

Above the Green Line - Nov 25, 2015 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

Tsunami,

Hopefully these charts justify buying today and the SPX will most likely rally upward. I copied the charts in my favorites. Do you think that I can use them every day by only refreshing the page? Thank you.

Originally Posted by airlift

Tsunami,

Hopefully these charts justify buying today and the SPX will most likely rally upward. I copied the charts in my favorites. Do you think that I can use them every day by only refreshing the page? Thank you.

Yes - Just refresh to update the charts. She even updates her guess at the wave count intra-day.

Here's a few more in my bookmark collection I look at once in a while...

Orderly Bull - Jaroslaw Jac - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

TREND CHANGES - Bob Karrow - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

Jeffrey Young's Public Chart List - Jeffrey Young - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

The Chart Pattern Trader - Ron Walker - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com