Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Originally Posted by FogSailing

If we get a positive day tomorrow, I think I may have to sell for the loss and move to G. If the market rebounds, I made a mistake. If it doesn't, my loss is contained to about 1.5% or so. I'm concerned with racking up a 4% or better loss if I stay in and we tumble to 1961 or thereabouts to complete the Wave C down. If we continue south from 2046 we could have a freefall with panicked sellers, etc. My instincts are telling me that Monday is going to be ugly. I'd love to be convinced otherwise but all week I've lasted on hope and I've paid the price.

FS

Ugly will be an understatement. I may very well be joining you as this BS has all but wiped out my gains for the year since February.

Frank

Originally Posted by Tsunami

If you look at the current lunar performance page you can figure out when the next period will start within a day, and ebikerz has it right https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/ and a red period starts Saturday. But after an amazing streak this year the last two lunar periods haven't worked at all. At this point I'm banking on the coming red period making it three straight periods not working.

The S&P parked right at support at 2046. This area better hold, otherwise it looks like the Grinch came early this year and I'll have to plot an exit strategy....which usually consists of panicking and selling at a bottom.

Still falling a bit after hours. I'll just hold my breath until it goes up.

I started tracking those red and green periods applying instead the C and S Funds. If I have my numbers right this green period has yielded a -1.44% loss in the C Fund and a -1.21% loss in the S Fund. Let's hope this upcoming lunar red period which begins Saturday gets us back into positive territory.

It is tough watching the value of your TSP go down, down, down, but at the end of the day, you still have the same number of shares as you started with. That is until you sell and lock in the loss. Time to deploy the sticky pants and have plenty of monkey butt powder on hand.

The day may have forced my hand anyway. It looks like another negative day given the news. I hope we hold above 2019. If we do, then Monday should still bounce up to the 2060 area. I'll have to place close attention to the news because Tuesday either the Red Lunar period works for us and we see strength from the season come into play, or we complete Wave C down.

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

The day may have forced my hand anyway. It looks like another negative day given the news. I hope we hold above 2019. If we do, then Monday should still bounce up to the 2060 area. I'll have to place close attention to the news because Tuesday either the Red Lunar period works for us and we see strength from the season come into play, or we complete Wave C down.

FS

Looks like the wave B top is in at this point, but short-term things are getting oversold and I'll look for a strong bounce to consider getting out next week...not today though. I don't want to look but assume I'm in the red for the year now. Argh.

Well, I've done it. Moved to G effective today. It's a coin flip but based on the combined views of the gurus I currently value the most I think the odds are that the market is headed lower until around 11/25, then higher into mid-December, but that will be a lower (wave 2) peak. Assuming that's right (and I have no idea) then the quandary was will the rally that starts next week exceed today's close by 12/1 when I can get back in? I have no idea and I'm usually wrong when I do that, and I just locked in a loss for the year if I can't get a small gain in December. Ugh.

On the bright side though...Go Cougs! Few saw it since it happened in the middle of the night, but the nations leading passer (Luke Falk), who's not even mentioned for the Heisman, did it yet again and brought the cardiac kids back from sure defeat for the 5th time in 14 starts in the final minute with a 75-yard drive and a TD strike with 3 seconds to go to beat the privileged ones at the Rose Bowl....and now we're ranked, finally, for the first time since 2003. It feels so much sweeter when perennial underdogs finally pull it together. It was an exciting weekend in the Land of Enchantment with Holly Holm's shocker (it was no surprise to anyone in New Mexico, she's been unstoppable for a decade) and the Lobos shocker on the smurf turf in Boise. I just wished my Seahawks hadn't spoiled the perfect sports weekend.

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Gutsy move TS. Meanwhile I'm LMAO (losing my a$$ off). I'm hoping this lunar red period will continue the inverted pattern and be positive so I'm staying the course.

!!! Yesssssssss, GO COUGS!!! Was at the game w/my better half, sitting in a sea of light-blue. They erupted with their QB's go-ahead TD and 2-pt conversion. 1:09 left, I wasn't very optimistic yet didn't panic... and like you said, Cougs marched down, winning TD pass, and we erupted - they deflated. Nice Saturday; heading back home soon. Go Cougs! Go France! (Go Hawks?). Go markets... after a little more drop to good buy-in point.
And... thanks again for your quality forum sharing here.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

On the bright side though...Go Cougs! Few saw it since it happened in the middle of the night, but the nations leading passer (Luke Falk), who's not even mentioned for the Heisman, did it yet again and brought the cardiac kids back from sure defeat for the 5th time in 14 starts in the final minute with a 75-yard drive and a TD strike with 3 seconds to go to beat the privileged ones at the Rose Bowl....and now we're ranked, finally, for the first time since 2003. It feels so much sweeter when perennial underdogs finally pull it together.
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Originally Posted by FAAM

Was at the game w/my better half, sitting in a sea of light-blue.

Oh cool, I'm jealous! I've been to many Cougar victories in Berkeley and Stanford (lived in the Bay Area for 22 years) but I've only been to two games in the Rose Bowl (the '98 and '03 Rose Bowls...I still wish the refs would have given Ryan Leaf just one second after that spike so he could have taken a shot at the end zone on that final play) and didn't get to leave victorious in either case, like you did.
Next victim Colorado...then another nail biter victory in the Apple Cup over the Dawgs would be nice...with Falk going over 5,000 yards in that game. Man I wish that field goal would have gone through against Stanford...they'd be playing for the Rose Bowl if it had. That poor kicker will have nightmares for life over that.

Market is looking stronger and stronger...today could be a wave 2, and tomorrow comes the next decline, but perhaps more likely this morning was a wave 4 low and now I'll just get to watch it go up to record highs without me for two weeks. Sigh.

This chart will likely show two buy signals at the close today, which is very bullish usually...
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Interesting how the lunar thing was working so well all year, and now it's completely failing. Tomorrow could be much different though, we'll see.

....Hey, I just noticed...FS, you took my 1000th post LOL.

I think you have it right TS but I'm still in so I hope you have it wrong.. Raven and I both want some up daze in our portfolio (at least a couple)... Congrats to the Cougs. They are playing super football this year!

FS

Looks like the bulls have the ball and are driving in beast mode barring a fumble overnight. A gap up tomorrow should mean new all-time highs coming for December.

Brrr, it's snowing out my window...

Here's to GAP-UPS

FS