Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

TS: Can't help it...your post (for some odd reason) had me revisiting my favorite Ghost Buster's moments..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmzuRXLzqKk

All the best!!!

FS

I got out the day before the downturn as recommended by Jeff, been in F since.


Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks


"The stock market is even more overbought today than it was last week.
Over the past two weeks, we saw the S&P 500 rally as much as 7.5%.
That's a remarkable move. And the proverbial rubber band is now stretched far to
the upside.
It can stretch further. Overbought conditions can get even more
overbought.
But the odds are against it...
Too many technical indicators are now at levels that often coincide with a
short-term top in the stock market.
The stock market has held up well since I
turned cautious on it last week. But with so many technical indicators at
levels that often precede a broad stock market decline, it's hard to argue that
the market is headed even higher in the near term
Traders need to be cautious here. Tighten your stops. Trim your profits.
And brace yourself for a big move to the downside."

I see its official now, no COLA for millions of people next year:
MOAA - Take Action Landing

I just hope with all this talk about deflation and negative interest rates, and the shaky market, that the powers that be don't decide to completely eliminate our federal pay increase in January. That would especially suck in my area and the others that are supposed to finally have the new locality pay thing implemented in their area. I've been looking forward to getting out of the "Rest of the U.S." without having to actually move.

It's about decision time for the market here. Either this is another rally that will be sold and new lows are coming (and the coming red lunar phase that starts Saturday would support that), or the seasonal bias will propel the markets up to challenge the record highs.

Follow-up on that FS interview yesterday, rather gloomy forecasts and he thinks everyone should be buying some gold...my two miners (PVG and FSM) are sure doing well now.
Michael Lewitt: Beginning Stages of a Bear Market; Talk of Negative Interest Rates Point to Increasingly Desperate Situation | FS Staff | FINANCIAL SENSE

...and wow, the dollar is getting close to breaking down below support today.
$USD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Hail to Marty Zweig and his ZBT!

Last hope for the bears might be the 2040-50 area, after that gap at 2035 gets filled. Options expiration and the end of the lunar green phase is tomorrow though, so we'll see if next week brings more ghoulish things until the end of October.

TS: I read Financial Sense quite often and I find them very imformative. I still think we have another down wave to 1840 or thereabouts and another impulse wave up before we really see this bear....but I hear him stomping around back there in the thistles..

FS

Here we are again, options expiration. Will this time be different? I doubt it. I think we'll see another top by next Thursday at the latest.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...51015_opex.jpg

Joanne's wave count in chart #51 looks good to me. Just one more high later today in the 2030s would do it, then the red lunar phase takes over next week...

Above the Green Line - Oct 16, 2015 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

Small caps and transports are already leading the way down.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Joanne's wave count in chart #51 looks good to me. Just one more high later today in the 2030s would do it, then the red lunar phase takes over next week...

Above the Green Line - Oct 16, 2015 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

Small caps and transports are already leading the way down.

Tsunami, your charts are very illustrative and helpful. I hope we get a chance to buy lower, and then ride a good upside. Thanks.

DITTO Tsunami. I'm generally conservative w/ TSP these days & Totally-G now. Thx for your posts & links (incl. the MOAA link; not been a member since I resigned 23-yrs ago after 9+yrs Active Duty, no Retirement). ALSO: YIPPEE for your "GO COUGS" posts after the great win (we "insert phrase that shall not be uttered"-ed it, but they "Ducked-it" worse & we even had to overcome the 8xZebras on the UO side). Hope that up-wave continues tomorrow vs-Beavs.

Originally Posted by airlift

Tsunami, your charts are very illustrative and helpful. I hope we get a chance to buy lower, and then ride a good upside. Thanks.

Thanks Airlift and FAAM, I'm just trying to contribute things I pick up on other blogs that could be of interest. FAAM I see you're an engineer (me too, Chem Eng) and a 10-year Army Vet, my stepson is on the verge of joining the Army, and my wife is a 10-year Navy vet....and yes, Go Cougs! Tomorrow the flags will be waving proud on ESPN's Game Day. One of my brother's is going to the Beavers game, sounds like it will be a sellout and good weather, lots of fun and my gut says they will finally minimize the mistakes and slap the Beavs around pretty good.

OK, a couple more charts...first is a simple bond "T" that shows rates last bottomed way back in 1946, then peaked in 1981. That's 35 years up for rates, and using the T concept there should be a corresponding 35 years down. That happens to be next year, 2016, which I find interesting since a low in rates (and multi-decade peak for bonds) could definitely align with the bottom of this bear market in stocks...assuming we're in a bear market...I think we'll have that answer by mid-November.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/kakt6ku7f1...02015.jpg?dl=0

Whether you're bullish or bearish on stocks the odds are very high that next week we'll get a pullback since we've just completed a pretty 5-waves up pattern since the late September bottom. Just a mild 38% pullback would be near 4%, and I'm hoping it drags out to the end of the month since I can't get in until 11/1. But then it's decision time. Does the market take off in a larger wave 3 up into December?...or do we just get a small rally then a bigger decline? The bearish view is PUGs view and he's the best EW guy I know of...

https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket (ah, balloons...cool, today is his 49th birthday)

This chart sorta looks like that point where Wile E. Coyote is hanging out in mid air, about to fall to earth:
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

A great update by McClellan today. He's still bearish and explains why...
McClellan Oscillator Interpretation - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial
I'll be looking for that oscillator to drop sharply and go below zero in the next few weeks.

Last, for any 3 peaks and a domed house fans out there, this one was drawn back in July. His points 26 and 27 happened perfectly, just need to shift them over a bit to match. What comes next is not pretty.
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Robin Griffiths expects the current rally will fade into a late October low, then a strong seasonal rally (35-minute mark):
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/robin-griffiths/strong-seasonal-rally-ahead
That fits perfectly with the lunar cycle, which per this chart would expect a 3-day decline into Wednesday, then a 2-day rally to Fridaythe 23^rd, then a 4-day decline to that late October low on 10/29:
https://lunatictrader.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/ltwaveoctober2015.png
Once again the lunar system produced a win over the just completed green period, a BIG win, and looking back over the last six years when the Nasdaq jumped 200+ points in a green period it was usually followed by only a mildly down red period or even a gain over the ensuing red period.
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/
I’m starting to lean toward a 50-50 chance that the coming decline will just be a 30-50% wave 2 down, then comes a strong seasonal rally through November and into mid-December, maybe to a double top near 2135 as the rally from late September completes. The gurus can get their predicted year-end levels around 2100, then the bear market can resume after Christmas and back to the F fund I go as interest rates drop to zero and beyond by October 2016. QE4 will consist of negative rates I guess, wow, then it's off to the races again until that runs out of steam after 18 months or so...spring of 2018ish. For QE5 in 2019 or 2020 Trump will send us all a check for his re-election bribe. Guess I have it all figured out LOL. I'm gonna be rich.

Craig Johnson has been amazingly accurate the last few years and he's saying 2135 at year-end, perfect double top:
Ahead of the Fed: Can the S&P 500 Hit New Highs in 2015? - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

Current plan for me: Go from F to G on 10/29, then 100% stocks on 11/1, hoping that half of the next rally isn't already over by 11/1.

Kirk Herbstreit just predicted that the pirate Mike Leach will lead the Cougs over the Beavs today, and a future Game Day show in Pullman is “on the radar”, maybe the Stanford game. Go Cougs!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaDJ8_rVHDk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eykkSTEcVdg