Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

For the Nasdaq, looking for a peak in the 4400-4410 area. It could get there today, maybe Monday, maybe Tuesday....but I'm comfortable with my IFT today that will book profits then I'll sit back and wait for 11/1 to start looking for a low to get in again. I hope I don't miss a rocket ride higher, but don't think I will.

https://twitter.com/peterghostine

http://www.61point8.com/Portals/0/ar...151007NQF1.png

http://content.screencast.com/users/...%20Channel.png

More info on the Zweig Breath Thrust. It's not quite as cut-and-dry bullish as I'd thought...
Zweig Breadth Thrust

Hope everyone has a great holiday weekend. The annual Balloon Fiesta in ABQ has been a great one this year; I've never seen so many balloons flying over my house.

The Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta - Welcome to the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta

If you ever go, just don't go the first Saturday when the crowds are horrendous! And hey, the penguin and pirate ship balloons from England have been found and may fly tomorrow, woo hoo!
http://krqe.com/2015/10/07/penguins-...alloon-fiesta/
Right now is the "special shapes" rodeo, always a crowd pleaser:
http://krqe.com/2015/10/09/balloon-f...ule-day-seven/
Tomorrow and Sunday will be the final two mass ascensions, over 500 balloons all over the place.

An excellent analysis of the ZBT by McClellan today supports that the current signal doesn't ensure the market is kicking off a huge rally....

Zweig Breadth Thrust Signal - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

Originally Posted by Tsunami

For the Nasdaq, looking for a peak in the 4400-4410 area. It could get there today, maybe Monday, maybe Tuesday....but I'm comfortable with my IFT today that will book profits then I'll sit back and wait for 11/1 to start looking for a low to get in again. I hope I don't miss a rocket ride higher, but don't think I will.

Congratulations Tsunami!!! I calculate that you made a nice profit of 1.81%. I decided not to risk getting back in today. With the moon phase getting ready to go into the red period I may IFT into the F Fund for the rest of the month next week. Thanks for all your support and have a great weekend!!!

Thanks RF...

John Hampson at SolarCyclesNet posted a series of interesting charts yesterday showing how the SPX has performed after the NY McClellan Oscillator got extremely high, like it is now. In August the stock market crashed down and snapped back. Over the last week the market has basically "crashed" up, and now it needs to snap down, potentially very hard. I like the fall of 2008 chart in particular since the market pattern was identical to where we are now, and what came next was a terrifying 25% drop in just 12 trading sessions, from 1006 on 11/4/08 down to 752 on 11/20/08... I don't think that kind of plunge will happen now though, but 10% down to 1820ish by Halloween wouldn't surprise me.

https://twitter.com/SolarCyclesNet

Even if we "only" get what happened in 2011 per this chart, the lows may be tested again...

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TXfD1hxpOY...Bvs%2B2011.gif

I'm not sure my move to F will work out, but I'm due for a winning trade in the F fund for sure.

Wow, finally a gigantic win by my Cougs at Oregon! Sorry Duck fans. 17 point underdogs.... the Cougs were 10 points down with 5 minutes go but stormed back and tied it with 1 second left, then won in double overtime. 500+ yards passing by Luke Falk. The officials tried so hard to take the game from WSU, bad call after bad call against WSU but they overcame it. Former Coug QB great Jason Gesser said it was the worst officiating he's seen in his life in high school, college, or the NFL, but they overcame it.

Biggest win since beating Texas in the Holiday Bowl over 10 years ago!

2OT Win at Oregon.JPG

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Wow, finally a gigantic win by my Cougs at Oregon! Sorry Duck fans. 17 point underdogs.... the Cougs were 10 points down with 5 minutes go but stormed back and tied it with 1 second left, then won in double overtime. 500+ yards passing by Luke Falk. The officials tried so hard to take the game from WSU, bad call after bad call against WSU but they overcame it. Former Coug QB great Jason Gesser said it was the worst officiating he's seen in his life in high school, college, or the NFL, but they overcame it.

Biggest win since beating Texas in the Holiday Bowl over 10 years ago!

2OT Win at Oregon.JPG

I "liked" that first part of your post, but could have done without the last sentence.

LOL IT...no disrespect to Texas for sure, and that was a similarly big turnaround win over Oklahoma yesterday (now there's a team I despise, thanks to them rolling over us in the 2003 Rose Bowl).

Here's some interesting weekend reading on the ZBT....

"Stock level price momentum works much better when the market is going up. Avoid betting on price momentum when the market is falling....In the case ZBTs, they are powerful bull moves in a very short time, which leaves the market highly overbought. With such an overbought market, should you continue to bet on positive breadth and price momentum?"

Humble Student of the Markets: The Zweig Breadth Thrust as a case study in quantitative analysis

Man, Andy Dalton is shredding Seattle's secondary.

WOW!!!!That's a huge win for the Cougs and has to boost their confidence. It's been a long time since they fielded a strong winning team. All the best to them. I used to live in Spokane (so while I'm technically a Gonzaga fan), I've always loved the Cougs. Many many many of the Spokane kids went to WSU. On a negative note, the Hawks faltered big time yesterday to the Bengals in the 4th quarter. How do you blow a 17 point lead. Lots of problems with both offense and defense this year.

FS

FS - I figured out why the Seahawks lost...I failed to wear Seahawk attire Sunday. Without fail my teams have won this year when I wear the proper attire, but lose when I don't, so I must apologize to the team and fans for my blunder.

As for the market, the risk of a "black swan" event has never been higher according to the little understood "skew" reading:
Risk of a Stock Market Selloff Is High, CBOE Skew Index Shows - TheStreet

Oil was the first domino to fall yesterday. Now we've had what looks to me like a clear 5 waves down from the top at 2022 today. So now the question will be are we starting wave C down to new lows well below 1867?...or do we just need to correct the recent rally from 1871 at the end of September? I'm leaning towards the former but most of Wall Street is "hoping" otherwise.

Hope is dangerous. I'm biased for sure (sitting in the F fund), but I don't believe in this sort of gloom though....
XLF has the Same Crash Set-Up as Oil at its 2011 High | Trader Moe

Lots of earnings reports after the bell...will Intel disappoint as usual and send the futures down?

Hmm, gold and bonds (AGG) flying but are now well above their Bollinger bands, primed for a reversal straight down. Meanwhile stock index's are diverging (e.g., QQQ much stronger than others) and not showing clear impulse waves down. My spidey sense is saying to be careful, the tide could suddenly reverse here near 1990 even though the lunar green phase ends today, creating a headwind for stocks for the next two weeks...but that ZBT signal could provide the tailwind needed to negate that.

Confusing.