Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Tsunami.... a few days ago I saw Bquat provide a chart of SPX and speculated a potential double top might be in our near future. I've always thought of the double top as characteristic of a completing Wave 4 which when reached would result in a correction followed by wave 5. Do you see us at the completion of wave 4? Just trying to get a sense of where you see us in the cycle. thanks

FS

For the moment, the odds for me are that the double top we already saw in the S&P 500 was a very deep wave 2. The top was in May. The slow summer trading is holding it up but as some point soon it should let loose in that scary wave 3 down. The possibility that the final wave 5 up isn't done yet is still there though, and the July low was the wave 4 low. There's just no way to know until either 2135 or 2046 is broken. I moved to the F fund over the weekend but am already wavering after just listening to the guys on theartofchart.net (per Stan, if the S&P finds support at about 2086 early this week, then that would be a wave 2 of 5 up and we'll see new highs around 2165ish). Too much info just confuses things and I should just stick with the seasonality. A bond default in Puerto Rico sure wouldn't look good for bonds in the short term though.

Thanks for your thoughts Tsunami. I had speculated earlier last week that it appeared as though 2077 and 2085 are now support with 2131 and 2189 acting as resistance. That matches up with your numbers. I'm on the sidelines tomorrow but I'll be watching the market. All the best to you and thanks again.

FS

Quite the battle going on and the bears are doing a masterful job at luring people in on those face-ripping rallies. At some point soon the rug could be pulled completely out since the bearish Elliott wave counts call for wave 3 of 3 down to get underway here and now. It wouldn't be all that bad, another 5% down or so before a wave B up rally, but I'm content in the F fund which is doing OK as it should per Aug/Sept seasonality. Only prediction I'll make is that I think by mid-September more than just one person will be using the F fund in the tracker top-50.

I have good company, Jeffrey Saut turned bearish in his latest Monday post, and even Warren Buffet is bearish per this Aug. 7th blog post: Blog | The Felder Report | Taking The Financial Road Less Traveled

Don't have confirmation yet though that the correction is underway... today could be just a wave 2 down with a strong wave 3 up coming tomorrow....I won't take that chance.

Time will tell, but this indicator may have revealed that the bears finally through in the towel yesterday and closed short positions, and are out of cash to re-short and cause another short-covering moon-shot rally anytime real soon....
$CPCI - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
...which will finally let the market head into a bit of a free-fall for a few days... I've got some TZA and QQQ puts and am enjoying the ride (so far, have to watch it like a hawk, thank goodness I'm a fed and can do that at work )... 2040-2045 will be a big battleground where the bulls need to regain control and try to start that wave 5 up... Hmm, headline on Marketwatch regarding the "death-cross" in the Dow....looks to me like QQQ should easily plummet to the 200-dma another $3.60 below...in which case my puts will swell to a 400% gain... I know better than to count my chickens though, tomorrow could be 500 points straight up.

One of the best technical gurus I know of is now sharing a bit more of his stuff via Twitter. One of the amazing things about him is he's a top-notch electrical engineer by day, and does this for fun (and profit, his subscription fees are steep) on the side....

https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket

This crazy market reminds me of the twisting and turning back-and-forth "Vertical Velocity" roller coaster at Six Flags in Vallejo, CA that I rode a couple weeks ago. The craziest thing I've been on... Wheeeeeee!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aKA8d1dIPk

The fear was getting too great (I saw this down at "4" this morning: Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney), the spring wound too tight, so the reversal wasn't surprising....but now the question is does the blast off continue on up to new highs?...or is this just another short squeeze?

I have no clue but am starting to lean toward the new high scenario.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Time will tell, but this indicator may have revealed that the bears finally through in the towel yesterday and closed short positions, and are out of cash to re-short and cause another short-covering moon-shot rally anytime real soon....
$CPCI - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
...which will finally let the market head into a bit of a free-fall for a few days... I've got some TZA and QQQ puts and am enjoying the ride (so far, have to watch it like a hawk, thank goodness I'm a fed and can do that at work )...

Hey, I love your input and really respect your opinions regarding the market, but ... are you freaking kidding me?! I'll asume that was tongue in cheek.

Thanks Khotso...not totally tongue-in-cheek, my office is rather lax about internet use if it's within reason, and hey, isn't anything to do with the TSP "work-related" LOL?...
As a follow-up to my post about buying TZA and QQQ puts, sold both for a profit...the latter a nice 129% profit! I didn't have the nerve to turn around and go long with calls though.
And as for the TSP, unless there's a total collapse overnight yet again, odds are good that I'll use my 2nd IFT for August to jump back into stocks tomorrow. I'm thinking the scenario shown by these guys is playing out....
The Art Of Chart | A collaboration between Richard Chappell aka Springheel Jack of www.channelsandpatterns.com (shjackcharts on twitter) and Stan Nabozny forecasting moves in price and time on equity indices, bonds, precious metals, commodities other

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Thanks Khotso...not totally tongue-in-cheek, my office is rather lax about internet use if it's within reason, and hey, isn't anything to do with the TSP "work-related" LOL?......

I too appreciate what you do, especially lately!

But, if I am properly picking up what Khotso is putting down, then I think you misunderstand her point.

After some un-/under-employed gubmint-worker-hater--for sh*ts and giggles--sends these posts, along with a well written letter, to their shiny, new, young, looking-for-some-action-to-put-notches-on-their-belts Representatives, we'll see how long that lasts.

Hmmm, yes, how many of us already have TSPTalk filtered out for us a work?

Multiple T's are running out between now and Monday 8/25:
Jeffrey Young's Public Chart List - Jeffrey Young - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com
(also note chart 9B on page 2 which fits my expectations for the next year perfectly)

Which fits Tom McClellan's range for a major top over the next week as others have posted. He first posted his August top prediction back in early May...
Eurodollar COT's Leading Indication - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial
Hmm, I notice a bit of slight-of-hand there...in May his chart said "early" August, now it just says August...
Market timer Tom McClellan sees stocks set up for

We're also moving into a negative 2-week lunar period: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/

Real estate has been one of the only drivers of the rally lately, and Armstrong is predicting a peak now then a long downturn lasting 18 years...
Real Estate | Armstrong Economics

Always lots of reasons to be nervous!