Page 66 of 163 FirstFirst ... 1656646566676876116 ... LastLast
Results 781 to 792 of 1946

Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #781

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post

    Longer term, a possibility for the timing of the coming major top could be August of next year. Using the simple time symmetry method mentioned by Peter Eliades in this article...
    Consensus Financial Commentary (last paragraph)

    ...if you count from the 10/10/2002 major low of the dot.com bubble bust to the 3/9/2009 major low, that was 2342 calendar days....then count another 2342 days from 3/9/09 and you get to 8/6/2015 as a potential top date. As for price, per my last post the trend line projects to the vicinity of around 2250 if not higher.

    Going back to my post from last November, we're now approaching that potential topping date of 8/6/15 shown here:

    Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

    I decided to look at this again calculate what that date would be using trading days instead of calendar days, and I come up with 7/31/15. That seems too soon for the pattern I'm expecting (a wave B decline next week then another solid wave C rally to a potential final top) to complete, but now I've got a couple days to keep an eye on. Also, the seasonal strategy says to use the C and I funds in July, then switch to the F fund for August and September. So that strategy fits the 7/31 top date perfectly, probably in the 2150's or a bit higher per this year's lower-sloped trend line. Hmmm.

    A different topic, this is interesting: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/

    That might be the best evidence I've seen yet that there really is something to the theory that moon phases affect psychology, and by extension affects the mood of traders. Apparently people are more fearful during waxing moons and more optimistic during waning moons. We just had a new moon so right on cue we should get a falling market next week.

  2.  
  3. #782

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Tsunami,

    This is a very realistic and interesting scenario; I would like a better understanding of the highlighted area below because it would help me visualize when the wave B de line would most likely start and the wave C rally end, perhaps close to July 31?:

    "I decided to look at this again calculate what that date would be using trading days instead of calendar days, and I come up with 7/31/15. That seems too soon for the pattern I'm expecting (a wave B decline next week then another solid wave C rally to a potential final top) to complete, but now I've got a couple days to keep an eye on. Also, the seasonal strategy says to use the C and I funds in July, then switch to the F fund for August and September. So that strategy fits the 7/31 top date perfectly, probably in the 2150's or a bit higher per this year's lower-sloped trend line. Hmmm.:

    More specifically, and based on your experience, is it more likely that we drop perhaps tomorrow and Tuesday; and then rise to around 2150's as we approach July 31st? What couple of days are you keeping your eye on and to look for what? Thank you in advance.

  4.  
  5. #783

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Airlift,

    This is all assuming an Elliott wave count where wave 4 ended at last October's low, and since then the S&P 500 has been in a long ending diagonal wave 5 this year. The recent panic low was finally the end of a long sideways wave 4. Within the ending diagonal, each wave consists of three waves (A-B-C)...the sharp wave that should be close to ending was wave A of 5, now comes wave B of 5 which should correct anywhere from 38% to 62% of wave A, then comes wave C of 5 up to the final top. The highest this pattern could go would be about 2198, above that and wave 5 becomes longer than wave 3 was, and that's not allowed by Elliott wave rules...we should all hope for that though (that the ending diagonal is wrong) since it would be very bullish and the market could sail higher well into next year in a different pattern. For a couple of reasons though I favor the pattern of the bull market ending within a month or two since I'm expecting a major 7-year low around October of 2016....not so much per this link below, but per a guru I used to follow, the late Terry Laundry.
    Is the 7.25-Year Stock Market Cycle on Schedule? | Elliott Wave International

    This doesn't show the close-up details, but shows the overall possible pattern since 2009:
    https://pugsma.wordpress.com/longer-term-sp-500-view/
    What would bring on such a sharp drop? I have no clue since things are looking OK right now fundamentally.

    My guess is the market tops Monday, maybe year the 2135 high to excite the bears that we might have a double top...then it falls for 3 to 5 days in wave B, then surges higher to confound the bears one last time (and get many to capitulate right at the very top) to a peak somewhere between 2145 and 2175ish in the next several weeks. It would be amazing if I occurred in that 7/31-8/6 zone predicted by the simple bottom-bottom-top pattern. I only have one IFT left for July, so I'll just ride it out since if I get out its 100% for sure the market will be higher by 7/31...but since I'm staying in it will probably end up lower LOL.

    I'm trying harder this year to follow the seasonal patterns, and for the rest of the year the winning funds tend to be...
    July - C or I funds
    Aug and Sept - F or G funds
    Oct and Nov - C fund
    Dec - S fund (the turn to small caps strength actually happens around 12/19 and lasts into March per Equity Clock » Seasonality)

    Ideally, I'd love to see that wave "PA" down in the Pugsma link above bottom around 9/30, then the winter months could be the wave PB up following the seasonality pattern, then comes wave PC down in a bigger panic next year, bottoming in Sept/Oct....then it's up up and away for around a decade in a long wave 3 even more powerful than the rally we've had since 2009, presumably since inflation will finally be unleased, and the Millenniels will be reaching their peak spending years.


  6.  
  7. #784

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Here's a visual look at the pattern I was describing yesterday. What I don't like about this though is that Daneric has this pattern now, and he's usually wrong since he's a permabear...I suppose he has to get it right someday though. What I think he has wrong though is he's one of the doom and gloomers that thinks the index's will free fall down to below the 2009 lows. I don't think things get nearly that bad, just a standard correction lasting 12-18 months.

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-klwnkig5lL...re%2BDaily.png

    Here's a new Elliott wave site I like: The Art Of Chart | A collaboration between Richard Chappell aka Springheel Jack of www.channelsandpatterns.com (shjackcharts on twitter) and Stan Nabozny forecasting moves in price and time on equity indices, bonds, precious metals, commodities other Looks like he might have nailed the dollar high today exactly.

  8.  
  9. #785

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    [QUOTE=Tsunami;506218]
    My guess is the market tops Monday, maybe year the 2135 high to excite the bears that we might have a double top...then it falls for 3 to 5 days in wave B, then surges higher to confound the bears one last time (and get many to capitulate right at the very top) to a peak somewhere between 2145 and 2175ish in the next several weeks. It would be amazing if I occurred in that 7/31-8/6 zone predicted by the simple bottom-bottom-top pattern. I only have one IFT left for July, so I'll just ride it out since if I get out its 100% for sure the market will be higher by 7/31...but since I'm staying in it will probably end up lower LOL.
    QUOTE]

    So we got that wave B down, deeper than I'd hoped....or, now the question is was that a wave 1 of wave 3 down and this is wave 2 of 3, and when it exhausts in the next day or two the market will collapse in wave 3 of 3 down. It's close to 50/50 either way but with some indicators so oversold and fear so high I'm still leaning/hoping for that one final rally into an August top...like this: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fCa4ZaoVlo...1600/wlsh2.png

    And now the drama for me is will the index's get back to where they were a week ago by 8/1 when I was contemplating getting out at that top but decided not to.

  10.  
  11. #786

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Only 7 more days until 8/7/15 when this low-low-high cycle ends. Does the market have one final stab higher left in it? I'm not sure and chickened back out today.

    Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  12.  
  13. #787

    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    7,885
    Blog Entries
    10

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Only 7 more days until 8/7/15 when this low-low-high cycle ends. Does the market have one final stab higher left in it? I'm not sure and chickened back out today.

    Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
    To me, because of the constricting BB's and the flat RSI and etc.; that chart suggests a strong Break soon. Rhetorical Question: Which direction seems most likely by the chart?


    __________________
    "...y'all need to hide your kids, hide your wife, and hide your husband..."
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

  14.  
  15. #788

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    3,024

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    When I reviewed the data earlier and it appears as though 2077 and 2085 are now support with 2131 and 2189 acting as resistance. The RSI and MACD aren't providing any real clues but there could be a negative divergence forming. I didn't see any major negative reaction based on FOMC minutes today. We get GDP data tomorrow, so that should be a big driver (See calendar). I have no choice but to enjoy the rest of week playing home trader and market voyeur.

    Economic Calendar: Financial Calendars - Yahoo! Finance

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  16.  
  17. #789

    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    7,885
    Blog Entries
    10

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Also, this calendar gives an estimate as to the impact the news may have on the markets:

    Economic Calendar - Bloomberg
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

  18.  
  19. #790

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Nice link Userque...

    Today's drop could be just a wave 2, with a strong wave 3 up coming by tomorrow...a 50% pullback to about 2087 is what I'd look for in that case...but I'm glad to be just watching in G for the moment since I just have a gut feeling that panic is fast approaching. A drop below Monday's lows and the 200-dma over the next few days would just about clinch it for me that the top is in.

    $SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

    I'm glad to see that so many in the auto-tracker have moved to safety and locked in nice gains. There will be more juicy profits to be had later this summer/fall once this initial panic is over.

  20.  
  21. #791

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Going back to my post from last November, we're now approaching that potential topping date of 8/6/15 shown here:

    Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

    I decided to look at this again calculate what that date would be using trading days instead of calendar days, and I come up with 7/31/15. That seems too soon for the pattern I'm expecting (a wave B decline next week then another solid wave C rally to a potential final top) to complete, but now I've got a couple days to keep an eye on. Also, the seasonal strategy says to use the C and I funds in July, then switch to the F fund for August and September. So that strategy fits the 7/31 top date perfectly, probably in the 2150's or a bit higher per this year's lower-sloped trend line. Hmmm.

    A different topic, this is interesting: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/

    That might be the best evidence I've seen yet that there really is something to the theory that moon phases affect psychology, and by extension affects the mood of traders. Apparently people are more fearful during waxing moons and more optimistic during waning moons. We just had a new moon so right on cue we should get a falling market next week.
    So here we are at 7/31/15, the date when the number of trading days (and I was careful to account for NYSE market holidays so I think 7/31 is right) from the major dot.com crash low of 10/10/2002 to the financial crash low of 3/9/2009 equals the same number of trading days to today. Seems like the market is trying to roll over after peaking in a wave 2 of 3 today; with end-of-month buying keeping it treading water. If so, next week will bring the beginning of wave 3 of 3 down. August could be quite ugly, or not, we'll see.

    7/31 was also pegged as a short term top by this guy who's been pretty accurate with his astro/cycles stuff:

    Raj Times and Cycles

    I don't subscribe to him so don't know his August low date.

  22.  
  23. #792

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Concur Tsunami. I'm stepping aside at least for the first half of August. Stayed in I Fund for now because I think it's got one, maybe two days of catching up to do, plus fair value adjustment. Looking for around $66 on EFA then move the next day. I think both C Fund and the S Fund have another 1 to 1.5% potential for gain left in them, but felt like the risk just wasn't worth chasing that. I'll get it later. I'm looking for a re-entry at one of three possible short-term low points or markers, depending on which one holds and has decent looking MACD and RSI indications: 1) 2040, 2) 1970, or 3) 1830 on the S&P 500.


  24.  
Page 66 of 163 FirstFirst ... 1656646566676876116 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes