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The bears couldn't even come anywhere near the confirmation level for a top down at 2040, so it looks like the 3rd attempt will be the charm and once 2120 is broken 2180 becomes the next major line in the sand. That's where the ending diagonal pattern would be violated since this wave 5 up can't be larger than wave 3 was.
Some bear food....
This Pattern Signaled The Last Two Crashes—-And It Just Happened Again | David Stockman's Contra Corner
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Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
Past Returns: 2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%
Looks like they disappeared when Tom updated the site software last weekend. He warned us about it on this thread: Possible Down Time and a Change This Weekend
Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
Past Returns: 2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%
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Aloha from Waikiki...thought I'd check in while waiting for my wife to head out to breakfast at Goofy Café...I see the bears are making another attempt at setting the top in place at 2135 but there's more work to do on the downside. 2046 or so is the line in the sand that would cement it so there's a long way to go. June is a month for the F fund per the seasonal strategy, and right on cue bonds appear to have bottomed and I picked up some TLT in my trading account this morning.
Our last day on Oahu...off to the Big Island tomorrow for five days in a private home right on the ocean south of Hilo, then on to Maui, living it up for our 20th anniversary!...and happy to be sitting in G for now since I'm not watching the markets.
Hawaii and the G-fund? I'm jealous.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
I tell ya, on trips like this renting condos/homes from owners is sure the way to go. We have a 180-degree ocean view from 15 stories up for half or less of the price of a cramped hotel room. Last night we watched the annual Chinese lantern ceremony on Ala Moana Beach from our balcony....over 7000 lanterns released into the ocean to honor lost loved ones. Beautiful.
Weatherweenie's Account Talk
Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.
Wow! That sounds great ...Enjoy the waves while your BONDING...
FS
FogSailing
Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.
Finally getting that last surge into the upper 2100's, maybe even the low 2200's, and that cycle date of August 6th I mentioned back on 4/11/15 is looking better for a potential top date all the time. If you count the number of days from the October 2002 low to the March 2009 low, we'll reach the exact same number of days on August 6th. Just something interesting to watch for now. I only stayed in the blasted F fund for a couple days and as usual it cost me a small fortune venturing into bonds....being in Hawaii at the time didn't help since you have to make TSP changes by 6 am!...so I stayed in F one day longer than I wanted to while listening to the ocean waves on Maui.
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