Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Originally Posted by KevinD

Oh... By the way...
Happy Birthday!!!

Belated Happy Birthday Greetings, Tsunami
- I am so sorry I missed this! I hope you had a good day at home, anyway! It may be a bit late for the cake - probably stale-ish by now;
will this make up for the tardiness?
Your input on the board is always very much appreciated... grandma
Attachment 9609

Missed it but Happy Birthday Tsunami

This morning's drop has created a 5-wave down pattern from Monday morning, not good if you're bullish. It's never certain, but that tips the odds that we've now moved into wave 3 down of the wave (1) down shown on Daneric's long term projected chart here:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKs.../wlshdaily.png

This tsunami wave will be worse than the May drop if correct. Later today or tomorrow a bounce should start that could give one final kiss to 1095-1105, a level not to be seen again for many years if the pattern is correct.

I like that chart since it fits with my long term guess that the first major low will come in 2012, and the final low in 2016 as the Kondratieff winter deflationary period ends. 2016 is when I'll turn into Birchtree's clone.

Terry Laundry's T Theory stuff continues to be right.
http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-t...culations.html

Originally Posted by Tsunami

This morning's drop has created a 5-wave down pattern from Monday morning, not good if you're bullish. It's never certain, but that tips the odds that we've now moved into wave 3 down of the wave (1) down shown on Daneric's long term projected chart here:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKs.../wlshdaily.png

This tsunami wave will be worse than the May drop if correct. Later today or tomorrow a bounce should start that could give one final kiss to 1095-1105, a level not to be seen again for many years if the pattern is correct.

I like that chart since it fits with my long term guess that the first major low will come in 2012, and the final low in 2016 as the Kondratieff winter deflationary period ends. 2016 is when I'll turn into Birchtree's clone.

Terry Laundry's T Theory stuff continues to be right.
http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-t...culations.html

First of all happy belated birthday. Now I hope that bounce lasts until Tuesday or Wednesday next week. July averages stink and that could fit into your wave theory. Hope your wrong about the major lows in 2012 and 2016.

Definitely hope your right about that bounce thing! Could use a break from the market my nerves are about shot.

The bounce has apparently started, but I wouldn't expect it to last beyond tomorrow, Monday morning at the latest. A 38.2% rally would be about 1096.2 in the S&P, but 1100 makes for a nice round number target, and 1105 was supposedly strong support that would now be resistence. Next comes a wave 3 of 3 of 3 drop if the count is correct, that will be nasty.

These Elliott wave counts usually seem to go wrong, especially when things look to be ready to implode, but one of these days it will be correct. From what I've read most of the gurus have this as the primary count now, including Steve Hochberg of EWI, Bob McHugh.... I'm staying 100% in G/F to be safe and will just look for the bigger bounces for quick gains.

echo Happy B-Day Tsunami-

I dunno, Nasa... the further this thing drifts along, the longer it will be in sustained up mode coming back, and thus more predictable when some definate direction returns.
I mean, it would appear the giddyness has left the building.
Don't know about you, but I feel better contributing to my TSP actually knowing that what I am putting in right now, (Allocation 100 G Fund- contributing 70S 20I 10F) at the very least stays intact...
At some point, and I would be skeptical of when, daBoyz will have to deal with the reality of where we are in recovery, and looking around, although INC's have cash- nobody's spending, they're just jabbering about doing so.
When it does take root and grow, it would seem to be less a lucky burp and more medium term growth....
I still have reservations that the market has taken the economic impact of the GOM into account, a major factor of the SE US economy.
The G20 meets next week and they posted their agenda- and unfortuneatly I saw no "more stimulus" on the list.
If you were my compadre' I would say GTFO!, WYSIWYG.

Originally Posted by nasa1974

First of all happy belated birthday. Now I hope that bounce lasts until Tuesday or Wednesday next week. July averages stink and that could fit into your wave theory. Hope your wrong about the major lows in 2012 and 2016.

Robin Griffiths interview:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwor...Griffiths.html

The latest from Martin Armstrong.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files...is-6-14-10.pdf

The FTSE index joined the "death cross" club this week, with the 50dma dropping below the 200dma.

Good stuff from Terry Laundry today as usual. http://www.ttheory.com/ Gold and VUSTX are poised to bust up through ascending triangles, which would mean stocks are about to fall hard if they do. The Wednesday ISM index number could be a trigger, followed by poor unemployment news later in the week. Per Chris Puplava, we should see worsening ISM index numbers in the coming months: http://www.financialsense.com/Market...2010/0623.html

Even with all that and much more weighing on the market, many gurus are expecting a rally from here and lasting as long as into early August. We'll see.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Even with all that and much more weighing on the market, many gurus are expecting a rally from here and lasting as long as into early August. We'll see.

1) Too much bearish sentiment makes the market bullish

2) Look at the weekly charts of SPX etc They have positive divergences showing bullish forecast

You might definitely be on track...I was watching Bloomberg and found an
interesting article I want to link to. Here is a quote:

"U.S. stock prices are mirroring government bond yields more than ever, a signal to bulls that shares may be poised to rally."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...on-record.html

Hope I posted this information and gave credit to Bloomberg. Otherwise...just
call me a squirrel who finds a nut every once in a while.

By the way...I turned Bull based on contrary sentiment and S&P 500 valuation. I liked Wilshire 4500 (S fund) action on Friday. I may be early, but
I do feel strongly that buying in here is as good as entry point. I suspect the market will move sharply soon. Just my 2 sense. Now, if I can just find that Bull
avatar. Where did I place that little icon?

Looking at the tracker stats today, I wanted to see what percentage of folks are wading out of the ocean and heading to higher ground before the tsunami hits. I'm encouraged to see it's a pretty high number. The tide may shift back into equities if we get a July rally going, I'll be looking for that trade myself in July, but I'm hoping by early August people will be heading to shore in droves. Here's the numbers of people that are 50% or more in the G or F funds combined as of today, divided up into the four groups out of the 400 now in the tracker (with the TSP funds, indexes, and those with hidden percentages thrown out):

Top 100 - 66 of 96, or 69%
Next 100 - 59 of 92, or 64%
Next 100 - 27 of 97, or 28%
Bottom 100 - 18 of 98, or 18%

Overall, that's about 45% are now at least half in the G/F funds. As usual those at the bottom are entering the casino in large numbers to try to get back what they lost.

Evidence that points to deflation winning the battle is mounting:

"It’s frightening," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...-stimulus.html

Industrial metals and mining stocks are leading the way before gold probably peaks this summer...
http://www.financialsense.com/Market...2010/0628.html