Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

I just found an old dirty crystal ball. It says this market rally will peak on 7/14 at 1085.3 for the S&P. That's the point where:

- Timewise, the last fall from 1131.2 on 6/21 would equal this rally from 1010.9 on 7/1 (8 days down, 8 days up);
- 1085.3 would be the 61.8% fibonacci retracement
- 1085.3 on 7/14 should be about when/where the S&P intersects the falling 50 day simple moving average (if not, maybe things could stretch another day or two, especially since options expiration is 7/16)
- a nice 3-3-5 corrective pattern will have time to complete (we're now in the final 5-wave thrust up, probably near the end of wave 1 of that 5 wave impulse).
- The dollar should be finishing up it's correction down to the 81-82 area at that time.

If wrong, the crystal ball will be on eBay late next week.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

I just found an old dirty crystal ball. It says this market rally will peak on 7/14 at 1085.3 for the S&P. That's the point where:

- Timewise, the last fall from 1131.2 on 6/21 would equal this rally from 1010.9 on 7/1 (8 days down, 8 days up);
- 1085.3 would be the 61.8% fibonacci retracement
- 1085.3 on 7/14 should be about when/where the S&P intersects the falling 50 day simple moving average (if not, maybe things could stretch another day or two, especially since options expiration is 7/16)
- a nice 3-3-5 corrective pattern will have time to complete (we're now in the final 5-wave thrust up, probably near the end of wave 1 of that 5 wave impulse).
- The dollar should be finishing up it's correction down to the 81-82 area at that time.

If wrong, the crystal ball will be on eBay late next week.

Tsunami, It looks like that old dirty crystal ball might be a keeper.

If everyone acts on the CNBC fund managers/Byron/Wilbur talk this morning the 7/14 point is too far out. It was yesterday. When are they going to invite our Birchtree.

I think the herd will be just getting started, but I was not quite that optimistic leading into next week either.
I'm very tempted to pull the plug or go defensive today or tomorrow....
It really depends what gold does. The EU is still looking hot, and when they went down, that is when the AU and bond market took a leap.
The IMF has an cautiously optimistic revised forecast that the EU is rallying on.

ps. US Jobs report positive- another rally day for the Bulls
Stock futures are rising after a better-than-expected report on jobless claims. The government said initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 454,000 last week. That's better than the 465,000 forecast by economists.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

If wrong, the crystal ball will be on eBay late next week.

Tsunami, I enjoy your comentary, you have a great writing style. I'd love to see you do some blogs on the T thing. I have gone to his website, but can't seem to wrap my mind around his concept, but I would love to deploy the T in conjuction with other trading concepts.

Laundry seems to be developing some of his T-Theory concepts as he goes along, especially regarding his "nulled echo" concept. http://www.ttheory.com/nulled-echo-lows/ (these are various dates where he explains it) The late April top caught him by surprise and he later explained it as a one month "echo" from the expected late May peak, with the reason for the one month being that was the distance between the previous double bottom in the NYSE AD line. That's also why he doesn't expect a significant bottom until about December 10th, 3.5 months after the late August peak, which will be the "echo" of that peak. Anyway, by late April I was following him so closely (I was up about 13%, why not?) that I got blasted and lost over 13% in May, dropping from something like #13 to #300 in the tracker in the process. Ow. I'm fighting my way back up just trying to catch bounces, which will be the name of the game from now to 2016 basically. Like CWRS says, I'm about ready to pull the plug on this rally and the current plan is to bail back into G/F tomorrow if it looks like that 1085 level will be approached. I'm crossing my fingers it hangs on for one more day tomorrow.

I can't really explain Laundry's stuff, he's hard enough to listen to as is. Being a technical type myself probably helps, but I'm no statistics guru. It took me probabably 6 to 9 months of following every one of his updates to start believing in his stuff and to somewhat understand it. Basically everything he does boils down to his discovery back in the 70's that important market peaks (bottoms are tougher) can be predicted using Advance Decline line and MC Oscillator data, with a little of Richard Arms TRIN some TA stuff thrown in. I can only recommend to go through his tutorials on the ttheoryfoundation.org site (uh, which seems to have disappeared, he did say he was going to redo them so I guess has deleted them temporarily), and just keep up with his Wednesday (on the .org site) and Sunday updates (on ttheory.com). One thing about him is he doesn't believe in Elliott Waves or other methods at all, and yet his method is now matching up real well with the Prechter's of the world, and it's getting downright scary how bad things might soon get. Arch Crawford's big weekend (listen to his interview last Sunday on financialsense) is also coming up 7/31-8/1. Makes me wonder what kind of event could coincide with that astral alignment that reportedly hasn't been so "strong" in at least 10,000 years, maybe bad news in the gulf that a relief well hit a gas pocket and blew out, who knows. Maybe BT will feel the astral vibrations and sell all his stocks that weekend, a true black swan event.

Most of today looks like a wave 4. If so one final push up to that 1085 area could be ready to get going shortly. This is looking a lot like the rally after the "flash crash" in early May, and if so tomorrow would be the closing high to get out. I learned my lesson in May trying to squeeze one extra percent out, and will just take my second straight lucky gain and run. This whole rally since 7/1 might just be wave A of a larger ABC that runs well into next week, but this is good enough for me.

http://www.ttheory.com/
http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/

SoCal had a 5.4 earthquake yesterday that doesn't seem to have made much news.
With the number of earthquakes around the world, just one out of the blue doesn't seem consistent. I wouldn't be suprised to see this one trigger another somwhere else on the fault line.
Not much news on it either, which to me, is bothersome.
http://www.sandiego6.com/news/local/...t-1DjFihA.cspx
The EU sounds increasingly rational, with their markets behaving in like fashion from my perspective (and it is my opinion that gold $ are moving back into the EU markets), while this same sort of US rally took place the week prior to June options expiration, sputtered up 2% through options week, then got hammered starting the following Monday through the end of the month.
I would not be suprised to see that scenario unfolding before our eyes as we speak.
I did adjust more conservative COB today-
G- 25
C- 10
S- 10
I- 55

Not much to say lately. The U.S. is giving in to deflation...
http://www.financialsense.com/contri...economic-trend

Because the secular bear market won't allow it any other way...
http://www.financialsense.com/contri...s-stock-market

Short term though, looks like this rally could last a few weeks and perhaps into August before sentiment peaks and the next down cycles hit.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Short term though, looks like this rally could last well into August before sentiment peaks and the next down cycles hit.

Let's ride this wave all the way in.

That is why I find it particularly relevant the USPS is asking for a 2c increase at this particular time.
A little backdoor inflationary shock from Uncle Sam.
The target is 2nd/3rd class mailers (advertising) who already are screaming bloody murder about how it will kill the business.
I don't believe it for a second.
It will get ad dollars out of the bank and into the system before the price goes up.
There is still nothing that compares in value or the visual impact of a hand delivered glossy mag with hot pricing to move some inventory.
Yessssss.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Not much to say lately. The U.S. is giving in to deflation...
http://www.financialsense.com/contri...economic-trend

Because the secular bear market won't allow it any other way...
http://www.financialsense.com/contri...s-stock-market

Short term though, looks like this rally could last a few weeks and perhaps into August before sentiment peaks and the next down cycles hit.

Originally Posted by nasa1974

Let's ride this wave all the way in.

I'm going to kill it now that I'm chasing it...

Sorry about that.