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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1453

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Yes, and this baby boomer is doing so in December. It's nice to finally see some younger minds coming into my agency.

    The flood of boomers retiring and pulling money from the markets was supposed to have caused a major market correction by now...but money printing...low interest rates...and now tax cuts are pushing that back. I hope the eventual correction/recession isn't as bad as some predict. I'm reading Harry Dents latest book, he's always good for depressing reading.

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  3. #1454

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    But they dont leave the market when they do..they may get more conservative but they still need to make money...right...
    Every retired person I know is still 60% invested...I just went 50% (from 42%) today..was hoping today would have pulled back a bit..no such luck.

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  5. #1455

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Yes, and this baby boomer is doing so in December. It's nice to finally see some younger minds coming into my agency.

    The flood of boomers retiring and pulling money from the markets was supposed to have caused a major market correction by now...but money printing...low interest rates...and now tax cuts are pushing that back. I hope the eventual correction/recession isn't as bad as some predict. I'm reading Harry Dents latest book, he's always good for depressing reading.
    The Millennials are pumping it in faster than we take it out.

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  7. #1456

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    What a tough week for WSU alumni/students/athletes/coaches, and most of all Tyler Hilinski's family.
    I'm changing my avatar for the duration of 2018 in his honor. RIP Tyler!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJaJ17IV4AAMG7m.jpg (taken after the Boise St. game in which Luke Falk broke his wrist; Tyler came in and brought WSU back from 21 points behind in the 4th quarter to win)

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/TylerStr...dbye-113972051

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  9. #1457

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    If I understand this right it looks like returns should greatly diminish but a recession should be 2 or 3 years away....

    Dealing with a runaway market | RecessionAlert

    I'd agree if a big infrastructure bill gets passed this year since that money would take a couple years to work through the economy.

    Hmm, I'm with Jay, we need more holidays!

    Happy Holidays Revisited | Jay On The Markets
    Last edited by Tsunami; 01-28-2018 at 09:29 PM.

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  11. #1458

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Hmm, and add Fed days to holidays too...

    https://seasonax.com/news/fomc-meeti...ising-right-no


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  13. #1459

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Almost every guru I read says the same thing, we're in wave C down and look for a bottom in mid-March. When there's a consensus like that it rarely happens as expected, but for now that's what I'm looking for. I noticed yesterday how AMZN and AAPL and NFLX had all hit new highs and looked ready to collapse, and sure enough that's starting to happen. I'm content sitting in G for a while, hoping to get in around 2500.

    https://northmantrader.com/2018/02/27/tech-cracks/

    Wow, 72% of earnings growth since 2012 and been from company stock buybacks. What an illusion.

    https://northmantrader.com/2018/02/28/debt-matters/

    You can add me to anecdotal evidence of the problems emerging. My wife and I were about to sign a contract to build our dream retirement home in Viera, FL last weekend. But with rising costs for the house, and rising rates on the huge mortgage we'd need for the $700K house, we decided against it and we'll go back to plan A and sell our current home first then rent and take our time finding a resale home. Multiply us by 10's of 1000's of people out there and there's a problem brewing.
    Last edited by Tsunami; 03-01-2018 at 08:44 PM.

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  15. #1460

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Blue Sky Breakout...

    11032018

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  17. #1461

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Richard Arms of Arms Index (or “TRIN”) fame recently passed away at 83. He was a long-time resident of Albuquerque.
    https://cmtassociation.org/uncategor...march-10-2018/

    I just updated my spreadsheet of ETFs I track and below is a first quarter summary of what’s working this year. Basically not much is working, and the only things in the green were:

    Growth – Large cap growth funds like VUG and IWF, and small-cap growth funds like VBK and IWO
    Emerging Markets – Standouts are Vietnam (VNM) and Thailand (THD)
    PIMCO funds – Funds like PCI, PDI, and PTY are solidly up in 2018, plus sport big dividends of 8-10% per year.
    Inflation Protected Bonds – WIP is up 3.53%.

    Pretty much everything else that I follow is down.

    Wave 4 should be over by early May at the latest, then hopefully we’ll see some solid green this summer.

    Final 4 time!

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  19. #1462

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I'm mostly seeing predictions that wave 4 will bottom around 2460 or 2530, but looking at this chart I think the damage could be worse. With a starting point that high above the upper Bollinger band it seems almost a certainty that momentum will take the market below the lower band before the spring is wound tight enough for the wave 5 rebound.

    $SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

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  21. #1463

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    I'm mostly seeing predictions that wave 4 will bottom around 2460 or 2530, but looking at this chart I think the damage could be worse. With a starting point that high above the upper Bollinger band it seems almost a certainty that momentum will take the market below the lower band before the spring is wound tight enough for the wave 5 rebound.

    $SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com
    Now or never for the bears. A lot of eyes are on the inverse head and shoulders pattern that is obvious on the chart below.
    If the bulls can push through 2675 then the target becomes about 2795. One guru I read says down hard for a week or so starting tomorrow based on cycles, as much as 280 points if the panic gets bad enough. There's several potential news events I can think of that could spark that sort of decline. Hmm.

    Above the Green Line - Apr 12, 2018 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com;

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  23. #1464

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Pssst! hey! don't jinx it!
    100% G COB 27 April; was 70% C, 30% S COB 11 Apr; was 100% G COB 6 Apr; was 80% C, 20% S COB 26 Mar; was 100% G COB 13 Mar

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