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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1441

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Nice article on the seasonality of small caps versus large caps...

    Tis’ The Season To ‘Get Small(Cap)’ | Jay On The Markets


    Coach Mike Leach imparts wisdom on getting married...

    Leach gives marital advice - ESPN Video

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  3. #1442

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Awesome article on seasonality Tsunami, going to work that into my adjustments.
    100% G COB 27 April; was 70% C, 30% S COB 11 Apr; was 100% G COB 6 Apr; was 80% C, 20% S COB 26 Mar; was 100% G COB 13 Mar

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  5. #1443

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    A really good series of presentations by Jim and Chris Puplava...

    https://www.financialsense.com/inves...-1-jim-puplava

    https://www.financialsense.com/inves...-chris-puplava

    https://www.financialsense.com/inves...-3-jim-puplava

    Some takeaways...returns are really going to be awful for the next decade for passive investors, near zero...you need to have a position in emerging markets (India is the best in my opinion) to have any chance at decent returns...active investing will do better than passive buy-and-hold...the next bear market is not far off.

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  7. #1444

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Gunnar's targets for mid-January remain right on track...

    03122017

    Dow 25,440 is just 1.5% away
    Nasdaq-100 6725 is just 2.1% away
    IWM 58.05 is just 2.3% away

    I'm guessing we get a spike up early Friday with another great jobs report, then a small wave 4 pullback for a day or two, then another rally to those targets by mid-January. There's no reason to suspect otherwise. After the January top comes a bigger pullback, but nothing serious...maybe trees to grow to the sky?

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  9. #1445

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    The Fed's rarely stated fourth policy goal, to ensure the stock market never goes down, is going very well...so far...
    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...12451523829760

    S&P 500 to 3000 this year...easy! 2019 worries me though.
    https://northmantrader.com/2018/01/0...arket-outlook/

    Getting closer to a long-term top per this chart:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01928932408&a=2 31284346&r=1443304934270&cmd=print

    Another chart to watch for that long-term top, maybe in 2019?
    http://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880709107&a=44 2365228&listNum=91

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  11. #1446

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I can't quite make out your latest avatar there, Tsunami. To my old eyes it looks like a pile of money going up in flames. That's definitely a Franklin there in the foreground.
    Allocations as of COB Jan 29 : 100% C. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%, 2013 17.29%,5Yr Avg 5.58%

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  13. #1447

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    that avatar is a Pacific coastline waiting for the next tsunami.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  15. #1448

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    Thumbs up Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    The Fed's rarely stated fourth policy goal...
    Tsunami: Your post yesterday with NorthmanTrader link & charts were great; Thanks for sharing! Scary times will come... I agree... getting close(r) but not just yet it seems.

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  17. #1449

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    I can't quite make out your latest avatar there, Tsunami. To my old eyes it looks like a pile of money going up in flames. That's definitely a Franklin there in the foreground.
    Yep, it's a tsunami of money, I thought that was very fitting for what's happening lately. The 2nd image here:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=a+ts...w=1269&bih=611


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  19. #1450

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Thanks for the link, Tsunami. My old eyes have an easier time with most of those images.
    Allocations as of COB Jan 29 : 100% C. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%, 2013 17.29%,5Yr Avg 5.58%

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  21. #1451

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    This euphoric/manic market had me looking back at history. The last time even close to this craziness was back in 1995 and into 1996:
    https://www.financialsense.com/fs-st...se-bull-market

    So, looking at a long term monthly chart how did that period look?
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24...=668&cmd=print
    Note that by June 1st 1996 the RSI had reached an extreme level of 87. What happened next?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24...=668&cmd=print
    The month of July 1996 saw a greater that 10% drop...then the relentless baby boomer fed bull market resumed.

    How does this compare to now? The RSI has just hit that same level of 87. Hmm.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24...=668&cmd=print

    So that's probably what should happen, but will the world's governments let it happen?

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  23. #1452

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    An now the Baby Boomers are starting to retire

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