Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

So did anyone notice the TSP's screw-up on Friday? The G fund has been going up a predictable 0.001, every day, like clockwork. But last Friday they raised the price by 0.003. Oops! I bet there were a few phone calls over that. They got back on track today with a 0.001 increase, but anyone that happened to leave the G fund on Friday and went to stocks got a few extra bucks from the mistake. This makes me wonder, how often do they screw up the other funds?
https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/...nce/index.html

I'm seeing more and more of these "to the moon" predictions for the market. Another sign that a significant top is probably less than a year away...it might only be like the correction back in 1981-82 though (see chart in story), 15-20% then up we go again, propelled by more and more astounding tech and medical inventions... and world markets catching up to the U.S...
A ?life-changing? rally is shaping up in the stock market, predicts one fund manager - MarketWatch

Wise thoughts about North Korea:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ternal-events/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ear-for-korea/

Originally Posted by Tsunami

So did anyone notice the TSP's screw-up on Friday? The G fund has been going up a predictable 0.001, every day, like clockwork. But last Friday they raised the price by 0.003. Oops! I bet there were a few phone calls over that. They got back on track today with a 0.001 increase, but anyone that happened to leave the G fund on Friday and went to stocks got a few extra bucks from the mistake. This makes me wonder, how often do they screw up the other funds?
https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/...nce/index.html

I don't think it is a screw up, typically the increase for the 2 weekend days are paid on Monday but occasionally they will pay early or even split it when the month changes and last day of month is on Saturday and new month starts Sunday

Boy am I hating the S fund right now. It's not measuring up to historical statistics at all this month. It's probably a warning and small caps are leading the way to the next move, which may be per the chart posted today by FS.

Meanwhile, wow what a bubble in Bitcoin...more than a triple in one year? That's not a currency, it's a parabolic move on hype and speculation, just waiting for the last bag holders to buy in...
XE: XBT / USD Currency Chart. Bitcoin to US Dollar Rates

Give it time -- the month is young yet. April finished with the I fund in the lead as per historical statistics.

The reason the S Fund has been underperforming this year is because I've been 100% S all year. Just wait until I capitulate and you will see it skyrocket. Hint, that isn't anytime soon.

Dangerous times in the market right now, too much complacency...

Consensus Financial Commentary

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: This Time is Not Different, Because This Time is Always Different - May 8, 2017

I saw the developing bear flag in the S fund that Tom shows in tonight's comments and bailed to the F fund yesterday. No idea if the pullback will be tiny or substantial, but I feel good being out for a bit...speaking of bit...this bitcoin craze is just the kind of nuttiness that happens near parabolic bubble tops:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dying-man-claims-he-just-borrowed-325k-to-go-all-in-on-bitcoin-amid-record-highs-2017-05-09

And how much longer will this bubble go?
Above the Green Line - May 9, 2017 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

I'm 9 for 10 in QQQ options trades this year...just small chunks of my trading account, not crazy ones like I did last year....I put in my 11th trade today with QQQ puts....maybe too soon though.

For the record, sold the puts when this morning's pullback was not looking impulsive...the market just wants to keep creeping higher...maybe to Tom McClellan's predicted mid-May top?...$1485 gain...10 out of 11 gains now.

An interesting toy. Plug in any stock or index symbol. For example, with MCD, you discover that it has gone up every single November since 1995! Find eleven more stocks like that for all twelve months of the year and you could just go from stock to stock each month.....GE has gone up in February for 8 straight years, etc. You could go through the entire S&P 500 or even more stocks and come up with the top 3 or 4 stocks for each month and buy them to spread your bets...Repeat as necessary until filthy rich...

Any retirees out there with enough time to do that for me?

Seasonality | Free Charts | StockCharts.com

An artificial intelligence computer that's being fed mountains of information currently says the next recession is about two years away:

https://forecasts.intensity.com/#/business-cycles

The S&P 500 heat map says it all today. The entire market is being kept afloat by the two elephants, AAPL and AMZN.

https://finviz.com/map.ashx

The charts for AAPL and AMZN both look toppy to me. Small caps are still leading the way down. AGG appears to have completed a 3-wave correction and should head higher. So I'll remain in F into next week.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

An artificial intelligence computer that's being fed mountains of information currently says the next recession is about two years away:

https://forecasts.intensity.com/#/business-cycles

Ray Dalio agrees, trouble is a year or two away, but... "When the next downturn comes, it's probably going to be bad."

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-picture-ray-dalio